A 4th down throw into the EZ is not a suitable substitute for a punt

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Simon said:

I remain unconvinced that the throw to Kincaid would have resulted in a first down if Allen goes to him immediately.

That 'backer didn't get caught up in the wash until Allen had already come off the read; he looks like he can close Kincaid immediately at the point when Allen is still going through that part of his progression. Maybe if he sticks with that read longer the first down was there, but then we're approaching the point of how long is too long.

I don't see it as cut and dry either way, just that there is room for debate.

 

That's what I think Josh thought.  He probably also thought he had a sure TD to Ty Johnson just before the half.

[Freak-O]

On 1/12/2024 at 2:29 AM, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

You can’t score a TD on a punt. 

[jethro_tull]

On 1/11/2024 at 7:29 PM, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

It is risk vs. reward. 

Punting the ball all but guarantees that the offensive team will not score.  A long throw gives them a chance to score.    

[AKC]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

I don't see it as cut and dry either way, just that there is room for debate.

Looking at it again I can see that Kincaid is shallow enough that the LB might have been able to get to him before he makes the marker. I'm seeing a good play call on a pass that is among Josh's better short throws, full development of the screen/rub and I have to believe Brady was thinking as it unfolded "throw the ball Josh THROW THE BALL JOSH". Josh obviously thought different.

 

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've thought about this before, and I don't thing you guys are right about this.  Players do what they're coached to do and don't make decisions on the field based on their contracts. 

Additionally this was the DBs sole INT of the season. It's not an incentive issue but instead just bad football.

[Don Otreply]

It would appear that a fourth down throw that ends up having the opponent no farther forward than the twenty five yard line is indeed a suitable substitute for a punt…, 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm 

 

I haven't watched he'd the all 22 but completely accept your analysis and others that Josh had Kincaid for the first down.  If I had to guess, he saw and misread something that made him uncomfortable and decided to go away from that throw.  

 

You're right, what I said is correct only once he's closing in on the sideline and has limited options.

 

Early this season I got grief around here because I kept saying Josh has to learn to take the short gain high probability throw rather than the 50 50 throw downfield.  It's a west coast concept - make every play a positive play, which is always better than a loss, an inompletion, or a turnover.  Positive play, every down. Josh was doing that in the big wins early in the season, and he's regressed to the way he likes to play.

 

 

 

 

Sorry I couldn't make that bigger. This site wouldn't accept a larger download. I think you can see it, though.

 

Josh is still looking and his man is downfield five yards and totally blocked by Shakir and his man on the pick. He went over Shakir and was four or five yards upfield of Kincaid and a yard or so behind.

 

Couldn't agree with you more about taking the high percentage throws more often.

 

39 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It would appear that a fourth down throw that ends up having the opponent no farther forward than the twenty five yard line is indeed a suitable substitute for a punt…, 

 

 

Maybe, but again, it simply is not true that those were the only two alternatives.

 

In the design of the play he had two alternatives, both of which were significantly open, and he wasn't seriously rushed. Could've backed up or taken half a step left and stood there for about four seconds, but instead he bailed out. 

 

And again, both of those two alternatives were open in plenty of time.

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I remain unconvinced that the throw to Kincaid would have resulted in a first down if Allen goes to him immediately.

That 'backer didn't get caught up in the wash until Allen had already come off the read; he looks like he can close Kincaid immediately at the point when Allen is still going through that part of his progression. Maybe if he sticks with that read longer the first down was there, but then we're approaching the point of how long is too long.

I don't see it as cut and dry either way, just that there is room for debate.

 

 

Really?

 

 

Honestly, I think that's a hard argument to make. This is about when Kincaid should have been recieving the ball, but instead Josh is bailing despite the fact that Dawkins has anchored down and isn't taking another backwards step, and there is now a beautiful pocket.

 

The defender would have had to go full bore to the outside and IMO Kincaid probably beats him and if not cuts back and the defender overruns him. 

 

Plus you can see that after the pick, Shakir is now cutting hard across the middle and his guy will be a yard behind him the whole way, which is indeed how it turns out.

 

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Sorry I couldn't make that bigger. This site wouldn't accept a larger download. I think you can see it, though.

 

Josh is still looking and his man is downfield five yards and totally blocked by Shakir and his man on the pick. He went under Shakir and was four or five yards behind Kincaid.

 

Couldn't agree with you more about taking the high percentage throws more often.

 

 

 

Maybe, but again, it simply is not true that those were the only two alternatives.

 

In the design of the play he had two alternatives, both of which were significantly open, and he wasn't seriously rushed. Could've backed up or taken half a step left and stood there for about four seconds, but instead he bailed out. 

 

And again, both of those two alternatives were open in plenty of time.

Don’t get me wrong, I have posted many times on Josh not taking the chain moving short pass, it can be a bit frustrating as we know, 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I remain unconvinced that the throw to Kincaid would have resulted in a first down if Allen goes to him immediately.

That 'backer didn't get caught up in the wash until Allen had already come off the read; he looks like he can close Kincaid immediately at the point when Allen is still going through that part of his progression. Maybe if he sticks with that read longer the first down was there, but then we're approaching the point of how long is too long.

I don't see it as cut and dry either way, just that there is room for debate.

 

 

Look at the picture I posted just above. He was completely and totally boxed out by Shakir and his defender. And that was when Josh was still looking. Yeah, he didn't actually come off the rub till later in the play, but Josh had already looked away. Which is Josh's problem, he had it just as the play was written, he had time in the pocket and he decided to play hero ball and bailed.

 

I agree you're right that Allen came off that read too early. He should've taken that read, and done so earlier in the play, when the guy was absolutely closed off and making his decision to go over or under. Either there or when he makes the decision to go over, you throw that ball and the play is yours.

 

85 - 90% chance of a first down there, IMO.

 

It's a timing play, and by the time of the frame I put in my reply to you, the timing is a bit late, though still possible.

 

If there's one thing Kincaid is excellent at, it's not falling where he's hit, particularly if the defender is coming from the side rather than downhill. He's going to get that 1st.

 

And just as high a percentage hitting Shakir cutting across the middle. He's making the cut and his defender is flatfooted, having been pushed back by Shakir after bumping him.

 

Josh bailed there from a clean pocket.

 

 

 

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Sorry I couldn't make that bigger. This site wouldn't accept a larger download. I think you can see it, though.

 

Josh is still looking and his man is downfield five yards and totally blocked by Shakir and his man on the pick. He went over Shakir and was four or five yards upfield of Kincaid and a yard or so behind.

 

Couldn't agree with you more about taking the high percentage throws more often.

 

 

 

Maybe, but again, it simply is not true that those were the only two alternatives.

 

 

Wow!  Thanks for the still.  Completely obvious how far open Kimcaid will be in a step or two.  Thanks.

[Simon]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Look at the picture I posted just above.

 

Using a still photo to second guess a QB decision is an exercise in futility, imo.

And I never said I think he came off that read too early.

The guy makes more chicken salad than anybody in the NFL and I don't have a problem with him moving on from an initial read that was a dicey proposition on 4th down.

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Look at the picture I posted just above. He was completely and totally boxed out by Shakir and his defender. And that was when Josh was still looking. Yeah, he didn't actually come off the rub till later in the play, but Josh had already looked away. Which is Josh's problem, he had it just as the play was written, he had time in the pocket and he decided to play hero ball and bailed.

 

I agree you're right that Allen came off that read too early. He should've taken that read, and done so earlier in the play, when the guy was absolutely closed off and making his decision to go over or under. Either there or when he makes the decision to go over, you throw that ball and the play is yours.

 

85 - 90% chance of a first down there, IMO.

 

If there's one thing Kincaid is excellent at, it's not falling where he's hit, particularly if the defender is coming from the side rather than downhill. He's going to get that 1st.

 

And just as high a percentage hitting Shakir cutting across the middle.

 

 

 

Not necessarily.  Bills have been sending him mostly on short sideline routes.  Take away his 4 longest catches (totaling 124 yards, minus an average of 5 YBC per) and his YAC for the other 69 catchers is 3 yards.  Also, his 1st down % (40) is well below Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Knox--all receivers with at least 30 targets.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, AKC said:

 

 

Additionally this was the DBs sole INT of the season. It's not an incentive issue but instead just bad football.

Well, given that the guy was headi g toward thw back of the end zone, yes.  But my point was that I think most coaches' modern take, just like going for it on fourth down and going for the 2 point conversion, is that an INT is an opportunity to make a big play.  I think players are no longer taught to automatically knock down a fourth down throw.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

13 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You counting on bass to make it this year?

Sure, he only missed 5 kicks. He missed 5 kicks last year too.