A 4th down throw into the EZ is not a suitable substitute for a punt

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

THIS.  Really don’t see the point of the OP here.  Once it’s snapped it’s always better to heave the ball down field if you don’t have a way to convert and hope our guys downfield make a play or if not, maybe they DB will be dumb enough to intercept it.  
 

 

when you say it like that… I kind of hope Josh kicks it one of these times if the guys not open 

 

would be a dynamic skill set. Snap, get a look at coverage, nothing there? scramble a little and if still no luck- pooch kick!

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

when you say it like that… I kind of hope Josh kicks it one of these times if the guys not open 

 

would be a dynamic skill set. Snap, get a look at coverage, nothing there? scramble a little and if still no luck- pooch kick!

I think that'd be an illegal players down field penalty or something?

[ChrisWatson#21]

Didn't look like anyone had separation and Josh had defenders right in front of him that was not a bad decision arm punt or turnover or whatever they want to call it.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

when you say it like that… I kind of hope Josh kicks it one of these times if the guys not open 

 

would be a dynamic skill set. Snap, get a look at coverage, nothing there? scramble a little and if still no luck- pooch kick!

If any QB could do that it would probably be Allen 

[BananaB]

9 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

Would you rather him throw it out of bounds or force it into coverage somewhere closer to the LOS? Once the ball is snapped you do know punting is off the table, so that’s a McD call not Josh. 

[Matt_In_NH]

9 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

You are ignoring the positives that can come of this.  Josh did not intend to throw a INT there but that was just one possible outcome.  You throw it up and give your guy a chance to catch it or you could get a PI or it could be intercepted (which is good but not as good as the first two options) or it could be incomplete.  
 

It seems today most defenders are more interested in having an INT on the books even if it was not the correct play.  I have seen plenty of instances of dbs knocking it down in that situation but not recently.  

Edited January 12 by Matt_In_NH

[Doc Brown]

My problem with Josh on that play is he had Kincaid open for an easy first down. 

 

He absolutely made the right play to heave it to the end zone though once he went off that read.  There was nobody open and he wasn't going to be able to pick it up with his legs.  You just heave it up and hope your guy can make a play and if he can't then maybe the other team will be dumb enough to pick it off.

[WotAGuy]

7 hours ago, NoSaint said:

when you say it like that… I kind of hope Josh kicks it one of these times if the guys not open 

 

would be a dynamic skill set. Snap, get a look at coverage, nothing there? scramble a little and if still no luck- pooch kick!

I could see Flutie having tried this. Probably would have been a great punt, falling dead inside the 5. 🤣

[mbowman14]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

It was just a poor throw, poor decision

 

But it didn’t cost us

What should he do?? Eat the ball and turn it over on downs? After passing on Kincaid in the flat.. which he should have thrown, you absolutely have to throw the ball and take a chance on 4th down. I have seen many NFL and college players screw this up and pick off the pass rather than knock it down. Shocking to me that this is happening so frequently.

Edited January 12 by mbowman14

[Billsfan1972]

9 hours ago, Doc said:

 

It's probably a good thing Davis tripped otherwise he might have fought for the ball and made it an incompletion. 

Davis fight for the ball????  That's a good one!!!!🤣😜

 

P.S.  He did vs. Pitt for a TD in 2022, which is the only time he has ever won a battle to catch a ball as far as I know.  How many times with some awareness he could too have drawn PI by coming back to the ball when coverage wasn't looking also perplexes me.

Edited January 12 by Billsfan1972

[CSBill]

My question on that play was, why not kick the field goal? For many teams, a 55 or less field goal is almost automatic; but it seems that McDermott has lost confidence in Tyler Bass for longer attempts.

[davefan66]

Why don’t the guy knock it down? Would have been at the LOS.

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

 

I was actually a lot more critical of Miami on the two EZ INTs. They cost themselves 17 yards on the one they returned the to 3 and 15 yards by actually intercepting the ball on 4th down rather than knocking it down. They got that one on the 20 instead of the 35. That’s 42 yards on those two mistakes. As for Allen heaving one on 4th down. Why wouldn’t he? He can’t throw it away, take a sack or run it (okay MAYBE HE CAN RUN IT). He pretty much had to throw it somewhere. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

No one has said a 4th down throw is just like a punt lol a deep third down INT is just like a punt because it’s either intercepted deep down the field or knocked down/dropped and you have an opportunity to punt still.  A 4th down play you’re gonna lose possession if you don’t make a play anyway so you might as well give it a chance…that’s not really the same thing.  Gabe had a chance at that ball if he didn’t fall down 

 

yea in retrospect when everyone’s covered on 4th down it’d be nice to be able to go back in time and punt but unfortunately the world doesn’t work that way lol

Edited January 12 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Shaw66]

12 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

Well, two things about this:

 

First, as good as a punt is ONLY said when there actually WAS an interception.  No one says it on an incompletion.   

 

Second, a fourth down throw into the end zone has a significant upside - a touchdown.   There's a much greater possible reward on the throw than the punt. 

[RyanC883]

12 hours ago, eme123 said:

So the DB is supposed to look and see waht running lanes he has before he catches it?? Sounds reasonable

 

This was better than a punt in my opinion. Atleast it was a scoring opportunity. There is a huge risk of the interception being brought out though. 

 

Agree.  W/R/T the bolded, this is mitigated if the QB throws the ball in the middle of the field, esp. near a receiver, rather than to a sideline with no one but one WR around.  I think this is what Allen did.  

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My problem with Josh on that play is he had Kincaid open for an easy first down. 

 

He absolutely made the right play to heave it to the end zone though once he went off that read.  There was nobody open and he wasn't going to be able to pick it up with his legs.  You just heave it up and hope your guy can make a play and if he can't then maybe the other team will be dumb enough to pick it off.

 

He kept looking Kincaid's way but didn't want to pull the trigger, so it's not like he didn't see him.  The only conclusion I can reach is he didn't believe Kincaid would get the first down and there's no way to know for sure.

[RyanC883]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, two things about this:

 

First, as good as a punt is ONLY said when there actually WAS an interception.  No one says it on an incompletion.   

 

Second, a fourth down throw into the end zone has a significant upside - a touchdown.   There's a much greater possible reward on the throw than the punt. 

 

I like the risk/reward.  There is no point in throwing the ball away.  As @Warcodered noted, once the ball is snapped, you have to run a play.  And if the play blows up, much better to throw it into the endzone near a WR, even if into triple coverage or whatever because as you noted, there is at least the potential for an upside play.  

[Cheesus]

3 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

I could see Flutie having tried this. Probably would have been a great punt, falling dead inside the 5. 🤣

 

A few QBs used to do this, but would have to punt right after the snap. Dave Brown for the Giants. Maybe Big Ben? 

[Heavy Kevi]

13 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

 

Yes, but.......... A punt can't score us points.

 

Maybe the chance at 6 points is worth the 10 yards?

 

And if it's 4th down, it's not Joshs decision to go for it (though he would every time). Ball is snapped. At that point, it's gonna be a 1st down, a touchdown, or a turnover. A pick in the EZ is significantly better than a non-completion

 

12 hours ago, eme123 said:

So the DB is supposed to look and see waht running lanes he has before he catches it?? Sounds reasonable

 

This was better than a punt in my opinion. Atleast it was a scoring opportunity. There is a huge risk of the interception being brought out though. 

 

I agree, except I WANT them taking the ball out. That's what happened on his second pick last weekend and the db got picked on by teammates for only getting a few yards out of the ez after the pick.