Brandon Beane was right and we were wrong.

[BillsVet]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I haven't seen anybody claim we won a Super Bowl this year

 

this is strictly an analysis of Beane

 

Winning off-seasons according to homers still doesn't mean squat.  Nor does winning off-season awards when you keep losing in the divisional round.  

 

Maybe that changes this year.  Maybe it doesn't.  It still doesn't remove the fact that, in light of their goal this year winning the SB, celebration of any executive is premature at this time.    

 

[st pete gogolak]

I was going to start a topic on a similar note but OP beat me to it.  My point was going to be what a difference a couple of months make in looking at Beane’s drafts and other moves.  So many draft picks were meh or questionable or unproven going into the season have come through in a big way (Oliver, Bernard, Bedford, Cook, Kincaid, Torrence, etc.).  In fact, look through all his drafts and the only busts are #2 rounders Ford and Basham.  Those picks look worse in hindsight to posters because we passed on Metcalf and AJ Brown for Ford and Creed Humphrey for Basham.  (I’m in the camp that you can’t call Elam a bust yet. He looked decent rookie year and has supposedly been hurt this year.). Add the great looking trade for Douglas and it’s hard to argue Beane isn’t an upper echelon GM.  You need a Super Bowl win or at least an appearance to rank with the very best put we’re lucky to have him.

[LarryMadman]

6 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I don’t disagree with most of this. But the bold is just comically wrong. Elam can easily be labeled a bust. You don’t draft a CB in the first round and expect him to be inactive every game and roasted when he is active. Elam is absolutely a bust. 

Dude has been hurt all season, of course he wasn't going to play well when he did play, he gave it a shot, it didn't work as his foot injury hampered him. TBD is correct for Elam.

[AlfaBill]

6 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

As much as we like many of the guys we have drafted, most of them just add to the depth of the team which is strong I might add. We need a couple legit home runs. A couple josh Allen's at different positions. 

Ya because all teams have  3 unicorns. Geez. 😒 

[Goin Breakdown]

9 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

Ya because all teams have  3 unicorns. Geez. 😒 

I'm speaking more along the lines of having a couple more star players. Not unicorns. And yeah there are plenary of teams that have star power that we don't. Im not the only person who sees this. Otherwise why would we be clamoring for a legit #2 WR. Maybe shakir can be that but maybe he'll be an excellent #3. Not sure. I love this team. Heck I talk about them on a message board lol just giving my opinion of their current roster and talent level at certain positions. 

[Fallser]

Elam is a “D” - as in, Doubtful he’ll be anything other than a practice squad player. Other than him he’s played the cards pretty well.

[AlfaBill]

23 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I'm speaking more along the lines of having a couple more star players. Not unicorns. And yeah there are plenary of teams that have star power that we don't. Im not the only person who sees this. Otherwise why would we be clamoring for a legit #2 WR. Maybe shakir can be that but maybe he'll be an excellent #3. Not sure. I love this team. Heck I talk about them on a message board lol just giving my opinion of their current roster and talent level at certain positions. 

If I misunderstood my apologies. I agree we need another offensive star. I just put Josh on another level. 

[Goin Breakdown]

2 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

If I misunderstood my apologies. I agree we need another offensive star. I just put Josh on another level. 

You're good man. I hope I didn't come across snarky either. It's hard sometimes on text to know what others are intending. I love talking Bills with y'all. Your right though Josh is on a level almost if his own. We're lucky to have him.  Go Bills. 

[Success]

7 hours ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

The Elam TBD is extremely generous dude

 

I don't think it is.

 

Elam is 22, and was hurt this year.  He played well in his chances last year.

 

It just strikes me as another Oliver, Epenesa, Bernard, et al - a guy who we kind of wrote off as either being a bust or not that good, but just needed some time..

 

[WeckMonster]

Fans tend to over-rate their team’s players.  Lots of the guys you listed are JAGs and every team has them…. Davis, Shakir, Knox, Epenesa, etc.

 

While Beane has built amazing depth on D, I’m not sure he’s found the high-end talent on O that you need to win it all (hope I’m wrong!)

 

* drafting Basham over Creed Humphrey was terrible in the moment and many posted about it

 

* drafting RBs high 3x (Singletary, Moss, Cook).  Moss was a wasted pick.  Even if Cook has been good, would it have better to draft a WR in the 2nd and draft a RB later, or pick up a cheap FA?  Every team has a decent RB.  You rarely hear teams say their biggest issue is RB.

 

* obviously you can’t get zero production for 2yrs out of a 1st rounder in Elam

 

[DisplacedBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Not everyone is part of your "we".

Exactly. And those same jokesters were wondering out loud what type of draft picks we could get in return for trading Allen. It gets embarrassing around here at times.

Edited January 12 by DisplacedBillsFan

[Virgil]

8 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Thought it might be interesting, as we head into the playoffs, to discuss a few times in recent seasons that we were all wrong and Brandon Beane was right:

 

- "Wrong Josh" - don't you wish you had Josh Rosen right now? I was wrong

- "Undersized LB" - letting Tremaine Edmunds walk and replacing him with a tiny LB in Terrel Bernard?? Disaster! I was only mad they didn't draft someone in 2023

- "Pay Shaq! Pay Phillips! Pay Poyer!" - Beane let all of them walk and all of them came back on cheaper contracts.  I was fine with this as it happened

- "Don't pay Ed!" - Remember your reaction when you saw the big Ed Oliver contract?  I was wrong

- "Another RB who can't handle a full workload!" - Cook is way too small to ever be a true lead back.  I was happy with this pick

- "Pay Gabe Davis" - what a difference a year makes. Wish we locked Gabe up last year at $12M/yr.  I only wanted him back on a stones deal, but didn't expect it

- "FIRE MCDERMOTT" - this would have been Beane's call, if it happened.  I was on this train, if he didn't turn it around, but he did.  

 

I'm sure there are many more, but those are just from the top of my head.

How about that Rasul Douglas trade?

 

2022 Draft Class:

1st - Elam - TBD (I was good with it, and we didn't have Benford yet.  It was the right choice at the time)

2nd - Cook - STUD (Good with it)

3rd - Bernard - STUD (Didn't know anything about him)

5th - Shakir - STUD (Happy with is, drops made me think he was a bust, happy to see him turn it around)

6th - Benford - STUD (Didn't know anything about him)

7th - Spector - Possibly good depth! (Didn't know anything about him)

 

2023 Draft Class:

1st - Kincaid - STUD (Good with it if we ran more 12 personnel,  I think he is still underutilized.  Makes the Knox deal look bad, but liked it at the time)

2nd - Torrence - STUD (Loved it)

3rd - Dorian - TBD (Mad because I thought they were drafting him as Edmunds replacement, and knew he wasn't pro ready)

5th - Shorter - TBD (Didn't know anything about him)

7th - Broeker + Austin - our team was too deep to keep them (I don't care about 7th rounders)

 

Beane has been en fuego.

 

Do you have any others?

 

[MJS]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I very much appreciate how many legitimate NFL players he has been able to find drafting where we have 

 

My quibble is that we haven't gotten true difference makers and we haven't done enough on offense

Oliver, Cook, Kincaid, Bernard, Josh Allen, etc. Those are all true difference makers.

[Bag of Milk]

It was Beane's call to fire McDermott or not. 

That statement could not be any more wrong.

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Fallser said:

Elam is a “D” - as in, Doubtful he’ll be anything other than a practice squad player. Other than him he’s played the cards pretty well.

They will trade him next year for a sixth … Beane uses that sixth to find the next CB1…

[AlfaBill]

40 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I don't think it is.

 

Elam is 22, and was hurt this year.  He played well in his chances last year.

 

It just strikes me as another Oliver, Epenesa, Bernard, et al - a guy who we kind of wrote off as either being a bust or not that good, but just needed some time..

 

Fans know better. Don’t you know? Half commuted harkari when Josh was drafted. 

[Mr. WEO]

18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

4 points over 17 games is pretty much meaningless and not statistically significant.

 

Would Cook catching an easy TD against Miami make you feel differently if they had 3 more points than last year?

 

Now if you said the Chiefs offense scored more points last year than yeah, that would be a huge difference...496 to 371...125 points less this year.

 

455 to 451 is basically meaningless.

 

 

So Cook and Kincaid were not difference makers.

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

Oliver, Cook, Kincaid, Bernard, Josh Allen, etc. Those are all true difference makers.

 

Josh Allen is a true difference maker.

 

Ed Oliver has been right on the cusp the last couple of seasons - this year he was a true difference maker. He needs to back that up in 2024 to get that tag applied and prove that 2023 wasn't just a career year. I am very confident he will and I have been stronger than most on Ed who other than his sophomore season where I do think he struggled, he has always been better than the perception because until this year the bare production numbers undervalued his play. 

 

Cook, Kincaid and Bernard are all 1st or 2nd year players who have demonstrated they can be good starters this year. That is great and they are picks we can say Beane has definitely hit on. But they all need to take another step to make the true difference maker category. For me it is these:

 

Cook needs to get in the endzone more. He ended up 6th in the league in total scrimmage yards and had 6 touchdowns (4 receiving, 2 rushing) the guys above him had: 21, 14, 13, 9 and then Nacua (who I'd make the same point about in terms of being a true difference maker, not there yet for me) also had 6. 

 

Kincaid needs more touchdowns and he needs to get more value for his catches - i.e. he needs to be used more downfield (I think that is coming under Brady. Weeks 17 and 18 were his two highest air yards per reception numbers all season and I would expect that trend to continue in the playoffs and beyond).

 

Bernard I want to see back it up and improve as the signal caller of the defense while not letting that detract from his splash plays. 

 

All three of them have had very good years. But at the same time I don't think any are in that true difference maker company yet. But I am optimistic for all their chances. And my worry before this season was as the Dion, Tre, Matt, Stef, Micah and Jordan core ages out around Josh where is the next core of this football team for the second Josh Allen era? I think whatever happens this Sunday and beyond in 2023 we have seen some shoots of that core emerge. And that is very good news. 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

20 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Thought it might be interesting, as we head into the playoffs, to discuss a few times in recent seasons that we were all wrong and Brandon Beane was right:

 

- "Wrong Josh" - don't you wish you had Josh Rosen right now?

- "Undersized LB" - letting Tremaine Edmunds walk and replacing him with a tiny LB in Terrel Bernard?? Disaster!

- "Pay Shaq! Pay Phillips! Pay Poyer!" - Beane let all of them walk and all of them came back on cheaper contracts.

- "Don't pay Ed!" - Remember your reaction when you saw the big Ed Oliver contract?

- "Another RB who can't handle a full workload!" - Cook is way too small to ever be a true lead back.

- "Pay Gabe Davis" - what a difference a year makes. Wish we locked Gabe up last year at $12M/yr.

- "FIRE MCDERMOTT" - this would have been Beane's call, if it happened.

 

I'm sure there are many more, but those are just from the top of my head.

How about that Rasul Douglas trade?

 

2022 Draft Class:

1st - Elam - TBD

2nd - Cook - STUD

3rd - Bernard - STUD

5th - Shakir - STUD

6th - Benford - STUD

7th - Spector - Possibly good depth!

 

2023 Draft Class:

1st - Kincaid - STUD

2nd - Torrence - STUD

3rd - Dorian - TBD

5th - Shorter - TBD

7th - Broeker + Austin - our team was too deep to keep them

 

Beane has been en fuego.

 

Do you have any others?

 

Hold off on the STUD designation for Torrence for now. I'm still seeing visions of him getting lit up last week.

[DJB]

I was absolutely wrong on Ed. He looked like a bust to me, undersized DT who didn’t make any plays.

 

Maybe it was Leslie Fraziers scheme and how he was used more so than Ed himself as the reason why.

 

Glad McDermott and Beane saw and knew more than I did!