Bills stat thresholds for wins and losses since 2019

[Mikie2times]

Since 2019 these are the most correlated stats the Bills have to winning % when looking at core box scores. Some of these play true for all teams. Some are incredibly weighted for our team, much more so than averages. These are key thresholds to sort of keep tabs on as we enter the postseason.  

 

-When the Bills win the turnover battle we are 32-2

-When the Bills are even or -1 in the turnover battle  we are 25-17

-When the Bills are -2 or worse in the turnover battle we are 5-9

 

- When the Bills rush for over 100 yards we are 54-12

- When the Bills rush for under 100 yards we are 8-16

 

-When the Bills hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing we are 45-5

-When the Bills allow opponents over 100 yards rushing we are 22-23

 

-When the offense scores 20 points or more we are 56-10

-When the offense scores 19 points or less we are 6-18

 

-When the defense allows 21 or less we are 49-7 

-When the defense allows 22 or more we are 13-21

[Aussie Joe]

Does this include playoffs?

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Does this include playoffs?

Yes

[Clark Rotary]

Very cool!  Easy to forget how important turnovers are.  Which ones are more slated toward the Bills?  

[Dan Darragh]

The Bills are undefeated when they score more points than the other team.

[Charles Romes]

If the game is too short our turnovers/drops are more likely to do us in. Almost ran out of time to beat the chargers. Need to go up tempo to lengthen the game to 75+ offensive snaps. That will increase the odds of separating. 

[ticketssince61]

16 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Since 2019 these are the most correlated stats the Bills have to winning % when looking at core box scores. Some of these play true for all teams. Some are incredibly weighted for our team, much more so than averages. 

 

 

 Would be  interesting to see how these compare to the league averages

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, Clark Rotary said:

Very cool!  Easy to forget how important turnovers are.  Which ones are more slated toward the Bills?  

I would hazard a guess that what this actually shows is that turnovers are less important to the Bills than other teams on average

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I would hazard a guess that what this actually shows is that turnovers are less important to the Bills than other teams on average

I would guess that is the case as well. I would say we actually perform better than average in all 3 buckets. 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, Clark Rotary said:

Very cool!  Easy to forget how important turnovers are.  Which ones are more slated toward the Bills?  

 

I'd argue that without proper context they are meaningless.

 

Is Allen throwing up a 4th and 2 pass from the Miami 40 that gets picked in the EZ worse than throwing incomplete or taking a sack?

 

Bills gained 15 yards of field position. Obviously you could say they could try the FG but you don't have that option once you snap the ball.

 

Allen only has one pick 6 in his career. It happened on a pass to Beasley that hit off his hands and CJ Mosley returned for a TD. Believe it was only like a 20 yard return or less.

 

Other QBs throw pick 6s quite a bit. Are you claiming them throwing fewer INTs but more pick 6s is better?

 

Also, do are "punts" really better than turnovers? Obviously FGs are if you are in range, but an INT on 3rd down inside the opposing 10 yard line versus a punt is relatively meaningless.

 

What really matters is drive score percentage, and the Bills consistently rank near the top of the NFL in that.

[Prospector]

7 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

The Bills are undefeated when they score more points than the other team.

Not only that, but we also haven't lost a game when we hold the opponent to less points than us!

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'd argue that without proper context they are meaningless.

 

Is Allen throwing up a 4th and 2 pass from the Miami 40 that gets picked in the EZ worse than throwing incomplete or taking a sack?

 

Bills gained 15 yards of field position. Obviously you could say they could try the FG but you don't have that option once you snap the ball.

 

Allen only has one pick 6 in his career. It happened on a pass to Beasley that hit off his hands and CJ Mosley returned for a TD. Believe it was only like a 20 yard return or less.

 

Other QBs throw pick 6s quite a bit. Are you claiming them throwing fewer INTs but more pick 6s is better?

 

Also, do are "punts" really better than turnovers? Obviously FGs are if you are in range, but an INT on 3rd down inside the opposing 10 yard line versus a punt is relatively meaningless.

 

What really matters is drive score percentage, and the Bills consistently rank near the top of the NFL in that.

correct

 

they track EPA lost per INT and Allen, despite throwing a bunch of picks this year, is around league average in terms of EPA/INT

 

 

[MJS]

The rushing stats is what sticks out to me, both running and defending the run.

 

I'd be interested in the passing stats breakdown too.

[Malazan]

20 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Since 2019 these are the most correlated stats the Bills have to winning % when looking at core box scores. Some of these play true for all teams. Some are incredibly weighted for our team, much more so than averages. These are key thresholds to sort of keep tabs on as we enter the postseason.  

 

-When the Bills win the turnover battle we are 32-2

-When the Bills are even or -1 in the turnover battle  we are 25-17

-When the Bills are -2 or worse in the turnover battle we are 5-9

 

- When the Bills rush for over 100 yards we are 54-12

- When the Bills rush for under 100 yards we are 8-16

 

-When the Bills hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing we are 45-5

-When the Bills allow opponents over 100 yards rushing we are 22-23

 

-When the offense scores 20 points or more we are 56-10

-When the offense scores 19 points or less we are 6-18

 

-When the defense allows 21 or less we are 49-7 

-When the defense allows 22 or more we are 13-21

Well, why don't they just do these things all the time?!

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

What really matters is drive score percentage, and the Bills consistently rank near the top of the NFL in that.

When a turnover occurs the drive score % is guaranteed to be zero and the other team has drive scoring opportunity of an unknown value. Will some of those value equal the same probability as a punt? Sure. Does that mean turnovers don't greatly impact the bottom line? No. The data is overwhelming. We actually do better than most team when we face turnover deficits but we are 30-26 since 2019 when we are even or worse and 32-2 when we are positive. Which is basically saying we have a 62% chance of being .500 as 62% of our games since 2019 end in 0 or worse turnover margins. The 32-2 record when we are positive is actually pretty stunning. We are basically unbeatable. 

 

1 hour ago, MJS said:

The rushing stats is what sticks out to me, both running and defending the run.

 

I'd be interested in the passing stats breakdown too.

It did to me as well. I closed the excel file, but I can look at it again. Will update here when I do. 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

So you’re saying turnovers are important 🤔

1 hour ago, MJS said:

The rushing stats is what sticks out to me, both running and defending the run.

 

I'd be interested in the passing stats breakdown too.

When you are winning, you rush more. Also, when you stop the run and make teams one dimensional, that helps your chances of winning as well. 
 

even though it’s a passing league, it still pays to be as balanced as you can.