No one in league history has ever scored more TDs through their first 6 seasons than Josh Allen

[Big Turk]

31 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Odds say it will turn around.

 

There's another thread showing the data on Gabe Davis throws resulting in an unusually high clip of interceptions. The man has a Zay Jones negative force field. 

 

Let me put it like this, when's the last time a negative Josh Allen narrative lasted more than 1 or 2 seasons? Why would "too many turnovers" be here to stay? 

 

As his supporting cast improves, so does Allen. Don't blame one man for the faults of the larger ecosystem he is in. 

 

At the end of the day, a lot of the INT's don't really matter.  I mean is an INT on 4th down where the other team gets the ball at their own 5 yard line really worse than a punt?  I think the way people view football scenarios is very flawed in terms of the importance of turnovers. Is a team that punts 8 times and has no turnovers in a game more likely to win than the Bills who turn the ball over 3 times?  I would say most likely no.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

What’s the story with td/int ratio around the league this year?  More dbs holding and it not getting called?  It felt like last year everyone was way higher it’s not just a josh thing 

 

not only are ints up it feels like passing tds are way down 

Edited January 9 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[balln]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

At the end of the day, a lot of the INT's don't really matter.  I mean is an INT on 4th down where the other team gets the ball at their own 5 yard line really worse than a punt?  I think the way people view football scenarios is very flawed in terms of the importance of turnovers. Is a team that punts 8 times and has no turnovers in a game more likely to win than the Bills who turn the ball over 3 times?  I would say most likely no.

And punt once

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

At the end of the day, a lot of the INT's don't really matter.  I mean is an INT on 4th down where the other team gets the ball at their own 5 yard line really worse than a punt?  I think the way people view football scenarios is very flawed in terms of the importance of turnovers. Is a team that punts 8 times and has no turnovers in a game more likely to win than the Bills who turn the ball over 3 times?  I would say most likely no.

Its been better than a punt more often than not this year lol 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/9/2024 at 11:55 PM, Logic said:

Thanks for this post. You're not wrong that the INTs are a problem that Josh needs to get under control going forward. That said, this season, the EPA lost by Josh Allen's INTs was a lot less than many other QBs, meaning he's throwing less "bad" INTs, or that the interceptions he throws are, relatively speaking, "less harmful".

Furthermore, the overall aggressiveness and explosiveness of Josh Allen, I think, will always come with higher interception numbers than most. You take the bad with the good because, on the whole, it equals a more dangerous and productive QB and a higher scoring team, even WITH the turnovers. And ultimately, not all turnovers are created equally. 

Again, you're not wrong. I just want to put what you're saying into context.

A few numbers to illustrate this point.






"Josh Allen has lost less value to negative plays than any QB in the NFL" in 2023.

 

 

Thanks, Logic, I appreciate the tone and the information.

 

I have to say I don't have the energy or time to go back through and analyze what the EPA was on all the INTs. I do remember two or three INTs that weren't any worse than punts. Don't know whether that explains the EPA numbers you are talking about.

 

I know you already get this, but less bad doesn't mean good. Thanks again for the info. Good stuff. Wish I had more time to go through and try to figure out why this is so.

 

Mays, in your cited tweets there, says he's looking at INTs and sacks. Including sacks would doubtless help Josh a lot as he has so few of them. Two QBs were actually in the 60s in sacks this year, crazy. Howell and Young. Josh's 24 sacks is lowest of anyone who played even more than 11 games, and Josh has played all 17.

 

 

 

On 1/9/2024 at 11:24 PM, Big Turk said:

 

Allen has probably the worst INT luck of any QB I have ever seen.

 

Also has at least 3 this year that were basically punts and caused the other team to start inside their own 10 rather than at their 40 if he threw incomplete. Those are actually smart plays that look bad on the stat sheet.

 

Spectacular over the shoulder INT needed? No problem.

 

Diving INT? No problem. 

 

The next week you watch the same player get a ball thrown right to them and drop it or dive and the ball hits the ground.

 

Have seen so many INTs get overturned on replay by other QBs this year. Has Allen ever had any INT overturned?

 

 

Yeah, I agree about those three that were basically punts. Do you have the stats on how many of those other QBs have? Do you have the feeling that Josh is the only QB who ever suffers diving INTs or over the shoulder INTs? He isn't.

 

And it's nonsense that those are "good plays." Less bad, certainly. But a good play would have made the first down, that's what a good play is. Josh creates a ton of good plays. But don't pretend a play is good just because it isn't significantly worse than a punt. Punts aren't good. They're just less bad than turning it over on downs closer to our own end zone.

 

Three out of nineteen that aren't worse than punts still leaves sixteen.

 

Again, Josh is a terrific QB. We're very lucky to have him.

 

But that doesn't mean that having so many INTs is really OK. It hurts the team.

Edited January 12 by Thurman#1

[Warcodered]

Can you imagine if he'd had normal turnover luck this season.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Thanks, Logic, I appreciate the tone and the information.

 

I have to say

 

 

Yeah, I agree about those three that were basically punts. Do you have the stats on how many of those other QBs have? Do you have the feeling that Josh is the only QB who ever suffers diving INTs or over the shoulder INTs? He isn't.

 

And it's nonsense that those are "good plays." Less bad, certainly. But a good play would have made the first down, that's what a good play is. Josh creates a ton of good plays. But don't pretend a play is good just because it isn't significantly worse than a punt. Punts aren't good. They're just less bad than turning it over on downs closer to our own end zone.

 

Three out of nineteen that aren't worse than punts still leaves sixteen.

 

Again, Josh is a terrific QB. We're very lucky to have him.

 

But that doesn't mean that having so many INTs is really OK. It hurts the team.

 

You cannot ask a player to do as much as Allen is asked to do, put up 400+ yards running/passing every week and then say "Oh yeah, and btw, we can't have you turn the ball over."  That's just the way it is.  If you want to ask him to do as much as you are, you have to accept there will be some bad along the way.  But there will be far more good.

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

You cannot ask a player to do as much as Allen is asked to do, put up 400+ yards running/passing every week and then say "Oh yeah, and btw, we can't have you turn the ball over."  That's just the way it is.  If you want to ask him to do as much as you are, you have to accept there will be some bad along the way.  But there will be far more good.

 

 

I'm sorry, but you really can. And should. I hear that justification again and again in the media. It's nonsense.

 

The year Peyton Manning had 49 passing TDs, he had 10 INTs. That's one example. There are others. It simply is not "the way it is."

 

Brady's passing TD:INT ratio in 2007 was 50:8. In 2021 it was 43:12.

 

Hell, it's not even "the way it is" for Allen himself. Josh had 37 passing TDs in 2020, more than his 29 this year. Throw in the running TDs and he had one more TD that year than this. And only 10 INTs. He's got the ability to limit turnovers while still scoring a ton of TDs. Unfortunately, he's still scoring well, but has turned the ball over a bunch more.

 

What would be unreasonable would be to ask for no turnovers. Nobody is doing that.

 

Asking for turnovers to be minimized is simply reasonable.

 

 

Edited January 12 by Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

INTs are not nearly the issue they're made out to be w Allen

 

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm sorry, but you really can. And should. I hear that justification again and again in the media. It's nonsense.

 

The year Peyton Manning had 49 passing TDs, he had 10 INTs. That's one example. There are others. It simply is not "the way it is."

 

Hell, it's not even "the way it is" for Allen himself. Josh had 37 passing TDs in 2020, more than his 29 this year. Throw in the running TDs and he had one more TD that year than this. And only 10 INTs. He's got the ability to limit turnovers while still scoring a ton of TDs. Unfortunately, he's still scoring well, but has turned the ball over a bunch more.

 

What would be unreasonable would be to ask for no turnovers. Nobody is doing that.

 

Asking for turnovers to be minimized is simply reasonable.

Funny you should mention manning lol

 

Peyton Manning and Josh Allen both had 167 passing TDs through their first 6 seasons

 

The difference is Manning threw 110 INTs and Allen only has 78

 

and he also has 54 rushing and receiving TDs to go w it

 

it's a non-issue 

[Thurman#1]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

INTs are not nearly the issue they're made out to be w Allen

 

Funny you should mention manning lol

 

Peyton Manning and Josh Allen both had 167 passing TDs through their first 6 seasons

 

The difference is Manning threw 110 INTs and Allen only has 78

 

and he also has 54 rushing and receiving TDs to go w it

 

it's a non-issue 

 

 

No, it really isn't. INTs are issues. They hurt your team.

 

Most of Peyton's INTs came in his first four years.

 

In Peyton's sixth year he had 29 TDs, same as Josh this year, but only 10 TDs. Peyton 's experience in the first four or five years of his career with a ton of INTs allowed him to greatly decrease them from his sixth year onwards.

 

Peyton's first 10 years:  28, 15, 15, 23, 19, 10, 10, 10, 9, 14

Josh's first 6 years: 12, 9, 10, 15, 14, 18

 

Peyton cut the INTs. Josh is increasing them.

 

And because anytime you say anything bad about Josh or any Bill, people here think you hate him, let me address that. We're lucky to have him. He's terrific.

 

But he'd be even better if he cut the turnovers.

Edited January 12 by Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, it really isn't. INTs are issues. They hurt your team.

 

Most of Peyton's INTs came in his first four years.

 

In Peyton's sixth year he had 29 TDs, same as Josh this year, but only 10 TDs. Peyton 's experience in the first four or five years of his career with a ton of INTs allowed him to greatly decrease them from his sixth year onwards.

 

Peyton's first 10 years:  28, 15, 15, 23, 19, 10, 10, 10, 9, 14

Josh's first 6 years: 12, 9, 10, 15, 14, 18

 

Peyton cut the INTs. Josh is increasing them.

 

And because anytime you say anything bad about Josh or any Bill, people here think you hate him, let me address that. We're lucky to have him. He's terrific.

 

But he'd be even better if he cut the turnovers.

No

 

you don't get it. The INTs really do not hurt the team

 

There are a lot of people who can't seem to wrap their heads around the fact that Allen is so overwhelmingly good that his turnovers don't matter as much, but it's true. Of QBs who've had at least 10 starts (there are 27 of them) Allen is only 15th in EPAlost/int vs league average despite having 2nd most in the league. That's better than Tua, better than Goff, better than Mahomes Hurts Stafford Purdy Lawrence.

 

This is STRICTLY EPA/int remind you. The other relevant stats such as QBvalue over average (Allen 1st w a bullet), CPOE (1st), success rate (3rd), ELO (again 1st by a mile), total EPA (3rd), WPA (2nd) are just more proof that he is EASILY the best in the league and it's not close. Like at all.

[ganesh]

On 1/9/2024 at 4:25 AM, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Season Update to 17s All Time QB #s.

 

TD Passes

# 78 with 167

Jim Kelly is #33 with 237

Mahomes is #39 with 219

 

Passing Yards

# 97 with 22,703

Mahomes #65 with 28,424

 

QB Rushing TDs

#2 with 53 behind Cam Newton with 75

Allen is btw # 73 for ALL Players 

 

And now the Playoffs

 

TD Passes

Currently at #25 with 17.

With a modest Lombardi run of 10 TDs, he will tie John Elway at #12 with 27. 

Other current:

#8 Mahomes with 35

# 13 Flacco with 25

 

Passing Yards

#27 with 2334

Mahomes # 10 with 4084 

Flacco # 18 with 3223

 

He is closing in on 57 TDs by OJ Simpson and 65 TDs by Thurman Thomas to become Bills all-time leader in Rushing TDs.  Amazing !

[ToGoGo]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm sorry, but you really can. And should. I hear that justification again and again in the media. It's nonsense.

 

The year Peyton Manning had 49 passing TDs, he had 10 INTs. That's one example. There are others. It simply is not "the way it is."

 

Brady's passing TD:INT ratio in 2007 was 50:8. In 2021 it was 43:12.

 

Hell, it's not even "the way it is" for Allen himself. Josh had 37 passing TDs in 2020, more than his 29 this year. Throw in the running TDs and he had one more TD that year than this. And only 10 INTs. He's got the ability to limit turnovers while still scoring a ton of TDs. Unfortunately, he's still scoring well, but has turned the ball over a bunch more.

 

What would be unreasonable would be to ask for no turnovers. Nobody is doing that.

 

Asking for turnovers to be minimized is simply reasonable.

 

 

What kind of surrounding cast did Brady and Manning have in those years you mention. 
 

Compare to Allen’s supporting cast. It’s a team game and that affects TD and INT totals. 

Edited January 12 by ToGoGo

[PBF81]

With this our staff still can't win a Conference Championship much less more.  

 

Imagine how good Allen could be if he had a good OC and some consistency/continuity there instead of the revolving door of questionability that he's had.