Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[Success]

1 minute ago, uninja said:

how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

 

Jedi mind trick.  "That isn't the tails side of the coin you're looking for...."

 

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

If the Steelers manipulate the coin toss to have the wind in the 2nd AND 4th Qtrs i’m going to rip my 60” TV down and throw it out on the street. It’s our stadium, our weather and McDermott should know how to play it.

Please educate how a team can "manipulate" the coin toss?  Or how a single team could pick both 2nd and 4th qtr directions.

 

To my understanding, let's say we win the toss...

1. If we Defer, then Steelers would take the ball.  Then we get to decide kicking direction (hence 2nd qtr option).  2nd half, Bills would elect to receive and Steelers pick kicking direction (hence 4th qtr impact)

2. Vice versa if we lose the toss or decide to receive (instead of defer)

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

[newcam2012]

34 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

The Bills in this win streak have not been explosive really. Which is good, because the kind of game they will need to play this Sunday is the same kind of game they’ve been winning lately. Ball control, move the chains, don’t be reckless and dumb.

 

McDermott and the captains need to be smart with the field direction. They must have the wind in the 2nd and/or 4th Qtrs. Those are the two long Qtrs with all the timeout usage, 2 min warning, guys getting out of bounds, extra plays,etc.  

There was a wind game either last year or a couple years ago where our opponent had the wind advantage in the 2nd and 4th Qtrs. That was egregiously bad decision making and coaching. That can’t happen Sunday. 

The offense vs Miami was very good with the exception of turnovers and finishing in the red zone. Basically, the Bills stopped themselves more than Miami stopping us. 

 

The Bills had several plus 20 yard plays. Allen was 30-38 for 360125  yards. That's really good. The Bill rushed for over 125 yards. That's really good. 

 

I feel like in the right environment weather wise the Bills offense would be successful against Pitt. I have less confidence in a very windy, cold, and snowy atmosphere. 

[Ralonzo]

23 minutes ago, uninja said:

how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

 

When you win the coin toss you can choose to:

1) Receive

2) Kick

3) Defend a goal

4) Defer first choice to the second half.

 

The other team gets first dibs in the second half. In most conditions, a team will defer the first-half decision upon winning the toss, in order to have first choice in the second half (which would be Receive) and have a chance to double-up with the last possession of the first half and first possession of the second.

 

The toss-losing team invariably takes the ball after a defer but in extreme conditions like wind, it can be advantageous for a team to defend the the goal "with the wind" for the first/third quarter even at the expense of kicking the ball away, in order to take the wind for the second/fourth.

[WideNine]

8 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Ive been impressed with how physical we have been as well.  I think we were more physical than Miami and Dallas obviously.  but thought we matched the intensity of two teams that wanted to be physical (Chargers and Patriots).  Both teams seemed to want to punch us in the mouth and I thought we did a good job of responding (miscues didnt seemed to be physicality related).  

You know were one of the better red zone teams in the league right.  We struggled last two weeks but were still really good.  If theres a trend, its us figuring out our passing game.  havent heard any talk of Diggs missing in action this week when that was all the rage last week.  we missed some plays against the pats, and were really close against the phins (but our mistakes just all went as TOs).  Sorta think this is the week we put it all together.  

 

I feel the Diggs AWOL hype is just a bone media got ahold of and ran with... They have to go with something.

 

Defenses focus a lot of attention on taking Diggs out of the game which means Shakir and Kincaid and others get more room to operate.

 

Diggs is just fine and they are finding creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

 

 

[zow2]

48 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Please educate how a team can "manipulate" the coin toss?  Or how a single team could pick both 2nd and 4th qtr directions.

 

To my understanding, let's say we win the toss...

1. If we Defer, then Steelers would take the ball.  Then we get to decide kicking direction (hence 2nd qtr option).  2nd half, Bills would elect to receive and Steelers pick kicking direction (hence 4th qtr impact)

2. Vice versa if we lose the toss or decide to receive (instead of defer)

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

 

At least the game i’m recalling I believe the Bills deferred and kicked with the wind in the First Qtr, opponent had wind in 2nd Qtr.  
Then Opponent kicked off gave us the wind in the 3rd and they had it again for the 4th.

I don’t like that strategy.

So it was a McDermott’s plan to force the opponent to go into strong winds on their opening drive. hoping to get the ball back quickly and get an early lead. So not really manipulating, just dumb decision in my opinion 

Edited January 11 by zow2

[Nineforty]

"I'm not sure anybody wants really to play the Bills right now because they're not sure what they're going to get. They are hoping to get the inconsistent. If they get hot Josh Allen, look out," (Peyton) Manning said.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/10/peyton-manning-josh-allen-bills-playoffs-super-bowl

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

(Username is appropriate)

12 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

"I'm not sure anybody wants really to play the Bills right now because they're not sure what they're going to get. They are hoping to get the inconsistent. If they get hot Josh Allen, look out," (Peyton) Manning said.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/10/peyton-manning-josh-allen-bills-playoffs-super-bowl

Heck we fans don't know what we are going to get and yet we watch with keen anticipation

[uninja]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

I feel the Diggs AWOL hype is just a bone media got ahold of and ran with... They have to go with something.

 

Defenses focus a lot of attention on taking Diggs out of the game which means Shakir and Kincaid and others get more room to operate.

 

Diggs is just fine and they are finding creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

 

 

I mean fr, guy has over 1k yards for the season and we’re acting like it’s bad or something. What I do know is that on some 3rd down ‘gotta have it’ moments in the stretch since Brady took over he was there. He’s not getting the most yards, but when we REALLY need them he’s there.

[Gambit]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The offense vs Miami was very good with the exception of turnovers and finishing in the red zone. Basically, the Bills stopped themselves more than Miami stopping us. 

 

The Bills had several plus 20 yard plays. Allen was 30-38 for 360125  yards. That's really good. The Bill rushed for over 125 yards. That's really good. 

 

I feel like in the right environment weather wise the Bills offense would be successful against Pitt. I have less confidence in a very windy, cold, and snowy atmosphere. 

Wowsers, that's a lot of yards. 

[JerseyBills]

injury report not looking great - Rasul, Rapp and Gabe all DNP

Dodson limited

 

Steelers get Minkah Fitzpatrick back after missing 3 weeks 

 

Thank God Daquan has 2 games under his belt back, he has looked good and will be a big part in stopping run game

Idk if new thread worthy but feel like Hines would've been huge in this brady offense, mainly in passing game. 

Ty Johnson has looked pretty good andvis way less talented

Edited January 11 by JerseyBills

[Matt_In_NH]

8 hours ago, Success said:

 

Jedi mind trick.  "That isn't the tails side of the coin you're looking for...."

 

It worked in Detroit. 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, uninja said:

how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

Call "heads I win, tails you lose".

 

 

[bobobonators]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

injury report not looking great - Rasul, Rapp and Gabe all DNP

Dodson limited

 

Steelers get Minkah Fitzpatrick back after missing 3 weeks 

 

Thank God Daquan has 2 games under his belt back, he has looked good and will be a big part in stopping run game

Idk if new thread worthy but feel like Hines would've been huge in this brady offense, mainly in passing game. 

Ty Johnson has looked pretty good andvis way less talented

If there’s ever a week for Rasul to miss it’s this one vs a run first team in bad weather. 

[Big Turk]

History is on our side if we win this matchup.

 

Bills and Steelers have met 3 times in the postseason before this matchup. Each time the winner has gone on to play in the Super Bowl.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/history-says-winner-steelers-vs-051544455.html

[UKBillFan]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis.  

 

At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points.  Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players.  As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results.  So it's hardly a positive.  

 

You say that the running game has looked better.  What do you mean by that?  What's your "viewing" baseline?  

 

That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data.  

 

I look at it like this.  If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever."  But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible?  Make sense?  

 

Here's the thing:   Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues;  They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson.  They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense.  Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth.  That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case.  They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter.  So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side. 

 

 

 

 

 

Can't argue against any of that. From a workplace point of view, I would argue the manager has now given the tools to the workers to complete the job to the best of their ability; now it is time for them to execute their tasks. Whereas before the workers were being hamstrung by the manager's requirements - receivers ending up in the same zone, poor play calls at key times, seemingly struggling to manage the QB's mental state. 

 

I do part of the issue is Brady is having to work with Dorsey's playbook whilst slowing implementing his own style. Think is was Fournette who said he has never seen something so complicated when he first joined. 

 

Does this all mean I have faith in the offense? No, sadly not. Other than the Cowboys - which was a very different approach - and the Eagles, it has not looked really good since the home win against the Dolphins. If it clicks, then the Bills could finally win a Superbowl. If it doesn't we could be sitting here next week with nothing to talk about but the close season.

[Not at the table Karlos]

11 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

Says there’s a 40% chance of snow from 1-2 and windy the rest of the game. It’s said that most of the week.

[boyst]

a few interesting stats:

 

the steelers have never beat the Bills in the month of march

 

in their history of playoff games both teams have had their lead rushers have at least 1 carry and 2 yards in every matchup

 

the bills when wearing white helmets combine with the the steelers black helmets make a gray color

 

when trailing by 1 or more points at the end of the 4th quarter the trailing team has never won/cameback.

Edited January 11 by boyst

[Bob in STL]

8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

When you win the coin toss you can choose to:

1) Receive

2) Kick

3) Defend a goal

4) Defer first choice to the second half.

 

The other team gets first dibs in the second half. In most conditions, a team will defer the first-half decision upon winning the toss, in order to have first choice in the second half (which would be Receive) and have a chance to double-up with the last possession of the first half and first possession of the second.

 

The toss-losing team invariably takes the ball after a defer but in extreme conditions like wind, it can be advantageous for a team to defend the the goal "with the wind" for the first/third quarter even at the expense of kicking the ball away, in order to take the wind for the second/fourth.

The Marv/Kelly era Bills did this at home several times in bad weather with good results. 

[Matt_In_NH]

If the wind and snow hold up to be true I wonder what affect that might have on the gameday roster.   I would consider have 4 RB's maybe so even if Ty Johnson clears protocol you might still want Murray and Fournette.  Maybe you go with 4 WR's without Gabe or sit Morris and use Edwards as the 3rd TE for blocking.  On defense do you need to add at LB?  Certainly if Dodson is not available that is a loss.  Actually after looking at the roster and practice squad there is no one else to add.  All you really have is Bernard, Spector and WIlliams before it's Matekevich.

12 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

 

Steelers are second lowest in turnovers in the NFL, the Bills are closer to the bottom, I agree that will be key this game.