Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[TH3]

5 hours ago, JustAnotherBillsFan said:

I would like to see Fournette get more touches as well. The problem with "letting James cook" is that he seems to get butter on his fingers too often.  😀

Do you have any actual stats to back up this hot take?

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

 

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions.  

 

On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners.  LOL 

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

33 minutes ago, Mango said:

Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 

Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

That’s his RAS at time of draft. If you update it to the current database you see a change in numbers. Most particularly a big jump in his weight. Sorry size I was going with weight cause yes he is short. Are you only using height to see he undersized. I would say he probably is more dense than most too considering his height weight.  I find the change in weight interesting cause the database is always updating. His increase of 0.5 is very indicative that LBs are trending smaller. So in terms of weight not undersized. Lastly 5.00 is average so he’s above average. That might fall as poor in his categories but it’s average. 
 

Edit he’s got ok size when RAS recalculated. Mostly held back by his height. Which is meh to me. If this was limited to players in the past 10 drafts I suspect his size would be good and not just ok. Also shuttle and 3 cone is why i didn’t consider him speedy from my eyes. He’s good in a line but wow change of direction bad as you note. Can’t believe you called very poor agility speedy 

Edited January 11 by YattaOkasan

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, Mango said:

Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 

Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.

[ALG1130]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions.  

 

On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners.  LOL 

 

 

I keep alternating between thinking The Bills should wear all red/blue or all white. 

[UKBillFan]

28 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us.  We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too.  

 

 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 

I think it’s down to the eye test that makes the offense look better under Brady. Despite the lack of points scored, the movement down the field seems easier and more dynamic. How many points were left on the board because of individual errors? The Cook drop, the Johnson incident, Josh’s first INT (miscommunication with Davis seems seriously bad this year, under both Dorsey and Brady). But then they don’t appear to have receivers run in the same area, as under Dorsey. The reliance on Diggs isn’t so prevalent, as you noted above. Shakir seems to be developing well, and Kincaid being an increasingly important part of the offense. I’ll believe you when you say Cook has been worse under Brady but generally I think the running game has looked better. Then, personality wise, whether after a fair or foul play, Josh seems more on a level now. It felt like we saw the “deer in the headlights” look from him more often than not whilst Dorsey was OC.
 

I’m not saying Brady should be hired on the spot, nor disputing what you highlight in your post, but I can appreciate why others are feeling more positive about the offense, despite the low PPG return.

 

As an aside, I cannot imagine two teams who sacked their OC mid-season meet in the play offs that often.

[YattaOkasan]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.

I think there is a good discussion math bomb that could be had about his data set. Particularly about how players have changed. If we look at the last 10 drafts I don’t think Dodson would be undersized considering how much his score increased from 2019 (suggesting most players were below his 237 weight). I think the old school thumper LBs are skewing the dataset. What looks like meh size is probably above average considering the way the body type of position has changed with increase of spread offenses

[Simon]

16 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

I keep alternating between thinking The Bills should wear all red/blue or all white. 

Red on offense; white on defense 

[Beck Water]

As expected, McDermott provided little new injury information other than that Taylor Rapp is out with a calf injury.

 

Banged Up Bills as usual watched film carefully and was willing to take some educated guesses

 

https://bangedupbills.com/2024/01/09/buffalo-bills-vs-miami-dolphins-week-18-injury-review/

 

Per Trimble:

Gabe Davis, reported PCL tear, 1-4 weeks assuming it's grade 1 or 2, likely out at least 1 game

Tyrel Dodson, likely AC Joint sprain, possible labral tear.  May practice with a red jersey and a brace, we'll see how it goes

Rasul Douglas, Bangedup thinks possibly knee contusion, painful and limited mobility due to swelling but if they can rehab him and get it down, might play?

Ty Johnson, concussion.  A good sign that he was already limited in practice, because they're not allowed to practice if they still have symptoms.  I hope to hell Jerome Baker gets fined by the league, and I hope the refs get called on the carpet for not calling that.

 

He didn't have Taylor Rapp on his list for a calf injury or say anything about it.

 

[Rockinon]

I think Brady is able to see the big picture better than Dorsey. Dorsey I believe, could draw up great plays but just didn't have a feel for the game. There are many great plays that look great on paper but if you can't think about what needs to be done to fool the defense your toast. In fact, I think this is Brady's bread and butter. He just seems to know what play to call and when.

[That's No Moon]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

As expected, McDermott provided little new injury information other than that Taylor Rapp is out with a calf injury.

Out for the game, or missed practice?

[Herc11]

2 hours ago, BRH said:

Listening to a caller on WGR say he’s coming up for the game from PA.  His wife is a Steelers fan and he said “I can’t wait to get back home and rub it in her face.”

 

um….

That's a good fan right there. Leave the enemy at home.

[newcam2012]

52 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

That's the scary part for me. That's right in Pittsburgh's wheelhouse. 

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

I think it’s down to the eye test that makes the offense look better under Brady. Despite the lack of points scored, the movement down the field seems easier and more dynamic. How many points were left on the board because of individual errors? The Cook drop, the Johnson incident, Josh’s first INT (miscommunication with Davis seems seriously bad this year, under both Dorsey and Brady). But then they don’t appear to have receivers run in the same area, as under Dorsey. The reliance on Diggs isn’t so prevalent, as you noted above. Shakir seems to be developing well, and Kincaid being an increasingly important part of the offense. I’ll believe you when you say Cook has been worse under Brady but generally I think the running game has looked better. Then, personality wise, whether after a fair or foul play, Josh seems more on a level now. It felt like we saw the “deer in the headlights” look from him more often than not whilst Dorsey was OC.
 

I’m not saying Brady should be hired on the spot, nor disputing what you highlight in your post, but I can appreciate why others are feeling more positive about the offense, despite the low PPG return.

 

As an aside, I cannot imagine two teams who sacked their OC mid-season meet in the play offs that often.

 

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis.  

 

At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points.  Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players.  As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results.  So it's hardly a positive.  

 

You say that the running game has looked better.  What do you mean by that?  What's your "viewing" baseline?  

 

That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data.  

 

I look at it like this.  If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever."  But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible?  Make sense?  

 

Here's the thing:   Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues;  They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson.  They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense.  Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth.  That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case.  They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter.  So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side. 

 

 

 

 

[ALG1130]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's the scary part for me. That's right in Pittsburgh's wheelhouse. 

Yeah, I feel like, at the very least, it neuters The Bills more than it does them and puts them at borderline equal playing field. I think The Bills are no doubt more talented, but I feel like they have a better run game. I don't think we will see a lot of passing in this game. We cannot make any mistakes. No turnovers. It would be devastating I think. I doubt field goals will even be a thing.

 

If we lose this one, I am not sure I ever want homefield "advantage" again. I am almost wondering if we would have been better off losing in Miami and playing on the road. I hate saying that because I usually like the comfort of home, but our offense cannot air it out in this type of weather. 

[Steptide]

One of the weather channels here in Rochester saying they won't know for certain about snow amounts for a few days, but they "think" right now most snow won't come until Sunday night into monday. Hopefully that's true, but still too far out. 

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

Out for the game, or missed practice?

 

Practice, sorry

Said take it day by day

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

“Go Bills!”can mean anything from “hello”, to “goodbye”, to “F*ck Off!”

I'd say he meant door #3

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I'd say he meant door #3

Instigator...

[Mango]

57 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.

I think all of our linebackers are fairly undersized. It was part of the criticism coming into the season. They’re still undersized but playing way better than most of us expected. 

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

That’s his RAS at time of draft. If you update it to the current database you see a change in numbers. Most particularly a big jump in his weight. Sorry size I was going with weight cause yes he is short. Are you only using height to see he undersized. I would say he probably is more dense than most too considering his height weight.  I find the change in weight interesting cause the database is always updating. His increase of 0.5 is very indicative that LBs are trending smaller. So in terms of weight not undersized. Lastly 5.00 is average so he’s above average. That might fall as poor in his categories but it’s average. 
 

Edit he’s got ok size when RAS recalculated. Mostly held back by his height. Which is meh to me. If this was limited to players in the past 10 drafts I suspect his size would be good and not just ok. Also shuttle and 3 cone is why i didn’t consider him speedy from my eyes. He’s good in a line but wow change of direction bad as you note. Can’t believe you called very poor agility speedy 

Let’s compromise and agree that Dodson is a girthy fellow that we both prefer to have around.