Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[Scott7975]

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Sit Douglas and Rapp.

If you can't beat Mason Rudolph with Benford, Elam, Johnson, Hyde, Poyer, and Jackson then you have bigger issues. 

[BRH]

Listening to a caller on WGR say he’s coming up for the game from PA.  His wife is a Steelers fan and he said “I can’t wait to get back home and rub it in her face.”

 

um….

[VaMilBill]

18 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

“Go Bills!”can mean anything from “hello”, to “goodbye”, to “F*ck Off!”

[IBTG81]

Najee Harris didn’t practice with a knee injury. Do we know anything about that?

[BCAS Baritone]

5 minutes ago, IBTG81 said:

Najee Harris didn’t practice with a knee injury. Do we know anything about that?

I think he's missed a practice a week for a little while.  I had Jaylen Warren on my fantasy team so I paid attention to Harris's status.  At the moment I assume this is just continuing the pattern.  If he misses Friday that would be a bigger deal.

[freddyjj]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Coaching for this game is key and it seemingly favors Tomlin. 

Aka the Punter Whisperer. 

[Since1981]

2 hours ago, Negan said:

Put the all-pro list up in the locker room Coach McDermott.

Ridiculous. 0.

Bills WIN the SB and show them all.

Josh "Go BIlls"  "I LOVE YOU JOSH ALLEN!!!"

[DeltaDigital]

4 hours ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Yeah a 10 point spread in this weather is insane. I’m hammering the Steelers +10. This is coming down to the wire. 

same same. buffalo by 3. a win, plus a bet cashing. Christmas 3! 

[Mark Vader]

5 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

These are not the old “soft lines” of past years. Jones in the middle of the D Line and an improved offensive line should make us a lot tougher.

loved an earlier post that called Spencer Brown our “Rob Ray”.

 

 

 

Shades of Ronnie Harmon 

Comparatively, Cook's catch looked easier.

[Warcodered]

 

Ed's got that mindset.

[Beck Water]

44 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

That was so classic, and classy.

*absorbs question and information it contains*

*starts to say something, stops*

*starts to say something else, stops*

4 seconds pass

finds perfect rejoinder: 

"Go Bills!"

[ALG1130]

22 minutes ago, DeltaDigital said:

same same. buffalo by 3. a win, plus a bet cashing. Christmas 3! 

I am not sure a field goal to allow us to win by three will be in play 😕

 

 

 

Edited January 10 by Aimee75

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He's done better than I expected as well, however, we've only played three teams among the top-13 scoring teams.  10 of the 17 games we've played have featured teams ranked 19th or worse, again, including four games against the 29th, 30th, and 31st scoring teams.  

 

Of those three teams, we played well vs. Miami but we own them.  Dallas we played well but Philly loaded up on us.  So outside the division 50/50.  

 

Once again, our issues have not been the regular season.  They've been the playoffs where we cannot seem to be teams seeded better than 5th or at home.  So this playoffs will be a defining playoffs.  

 

Of our last 7 games while Brady's been the OC, where our scoring has been below our season average, having played New England with Zappe, the Chargers with Shtick, the Jets with Wilson, or even the Chiefs w/o Pacheco and no WRs worthy of note except for a developing rookie, tough shouldn't really be a feather in our cap.  

 

Pittsburgh's not even a top offense, they rank 28th in scoring although they have been playing better under Rudolph, to the tune of over 9 points better than their season average on the whole, despite having played two Ds ranked 21st and 25th in those three games.  They have logged a bunch of very long TD drives however.  

 

We're all hoping for a win, but deep down most of us realize that we haven't been stellar in the playoffs under McD.  This is a fantastic opportunity for him to alter that perspective and existing paradigm and associated narrative.  

 

 

 

 

Nice post. The playoff failures are the very reason why I've been banging the drum for a new coach. Hopefully, a McD lead Bills team can have more success this year. Losing to Pitt would be borderline catastrophic. Perhaps, an over simplification but you get the point. Imho, it would take many fans to the breaking point. Hopefully, we don't go there. 

 

However, your numbers  implicate McD and the Bills should win the game. Pitt is the exact kind of playoff opponent McD beats. A less than stellar team with an average to poor QB. I believe his defense will have great success vs Pitt. McD does get first round wins. 

 

I'm more worried about the offense here. The turnovers continue to be concerning. It's really feast or famine with Allen from series to series almost. It almost feels like I'm on edge watching the offense play. Am I the only one saying no turn no turnover no turnover while watching the offense? It's pretty nerve wrecking. The Pitt D gets turnovers. No Watt is huge though. 

 

I believe the Brady honeymoon phase is over. He's by far better than Dorsey but there's tape and tendencies that teams can now evaluate. Pitt will absolutely have a solid game. IMHO, the Bills offensive talent should prevail but weather can be a huge detriment. 

 

Can't wait til Sunday. 

Edited January 10 by newcam2012

[Meatloaf63]

2 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

How are we feeling that it looks like the team practiced indoors today? It is cold and windy today and I was kind of hoping they would practice outside, but of course I am no expert on what the correct way to do this is.

I would like to see a split practice, some outdoor work would be good i would think.

[atlbillsfan1975]

38 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

Ed's got that mindset.

Like him more and more each day

[Turbo44]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Looks like Elam should dress for this game. 

If I'm McD I play more 4-3 this week. Spector looked good. Williams should not be a liability in coverage and should add some nice pop.

Maybe even play Taron at safety if they want to go with a three safety package wit Rapp hurt.

So in one week’s time, completely change the system that McD had run for the last 6 years and move a spot corner to safety, something he’s never played. What could go wrong here lol??

[Mango]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Appreciate the speed reference but gonna disagree that 237 is undersized.  That is above average for a LB all time per RAS and the league is trending down.  Also he is the heaviest LB on the team.  So yeah i dont like losing our heaviest LB that is good against the run.  Felt like you were implying that he was a coverage guy with the undersized and speedy comment.  I agree this is the game to choose to be missing coverage players.  

Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 

Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

[PBF81]

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Nice post. The playoff failures are the very reason why I've been banging the drum for a new coach.

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

However, your numbers  implicate McD and the Bills should win the game. Pitt is the exact kind of playoff opponent McD beats. A less than stellar team with an average to poor QB. I believe his defense will have great success vs Pitt. McD does get first round wins. 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm more worried about the offense here. The turnovers continue to be concerning. It's really feast or famine with Allen from series to series almost. It almost feels like I'm on edge watching the offense play. Am I the only one saying no turn no turnover no turnover while watching the offense? It's pretty nerve wrecking. 

 

I believe the Brady honeymoon phase is over. He's by far better than Dorsey but there's tape and tendencies that teams can now evaluate. Pitt will absolutely have a solid game. IMHO, the Bills offensive talent should prevail but weather can be a huge detriment. 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us.  We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Can't wait til Sunday. 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 

Edited January 11 by PBF81

[ALG1130]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  

 

 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!