Baldy's breakdown of the punt return

[peterpan]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think the option was to turn and sit, or break inside. I don't think he was ever going to turn it outside.

 

If he turns and sits, the defender is right there... So, just not good all around.

The option was a curl route, probably. Davis turns and sits or breaks it inside. He chose inside.

Well if it was turn and sit on a curl route, or break inside, then It was on Josh. Curl route would be to sit in a soft spot of the zone, not against tight man like that.

 

Maybe Gabe should have altered his route earlier, like a quick slant. idk about that.  

[Kmart128]

12 minutes ago, peterpan said:

This what I’m saying.  Everyone is blaming Davis.  It’s gotta be on Josh.  It wasn’t thrown inside or out it was thrown right at the defender.  Just an inaccurate pass.

It was supposed to be a little hitch route and Gabe was either supposed to sit or break towards post. Obviously Josh thought he was gonna sit and Gabe saw middle of field wide open and broke towards the post

[Warcodered]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Part of the problem is Davis wasn't looking for the ball at all. He needs to get his head around right as he is breaking, but he doesn't. He takes a couple of steps before looking. The defender lets him go because he saw the pass. Allen let that ball go before Davis even made his break.

 

But Davis had a man right on him when Allen made the throw. Allen should have just thrown it out of the back of the end zone instead of throwing it to a covered man.

Which considering the blitz is insane.

[Utah John]

15 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I always wonder about this because you almost never see it...on those 4th down situations with a desperation heave why are DBs not just knocking the ball down to gain field position?  Seems like you always see them go for the INT?  In a league where no stone goes unturned is this not something that's taught?

Suppose the Miami DB had an incentive in his contract that he got a $XXX bonus for Y interceptions, and he had Y-1 going into the game.  Even if not, these guys are rewarded for INTs far more than heads-up plays.  The INT goes into his lifetime stats, the heads-up play gets a pat on the helmet.

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there's a guy spying Kincaid the whole time, Josh throws that Miami has 6.

 

Huh?

[Utah John]

Half a second more and Josh sees that Davis is breaking to the middle of the field, and it's an easy TD.  That half second was not there because Cook missed his block.

[Utah John]

8 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there's a guy spying Kincaid the whole time, Josh throws that Miami has 6.

Well, the guy tracking Kincaid is downfield so if Josh leads Kincaid he catches it and gets the first down before being tackled.  If Josh throws a flat pass, yep, it's 6 going the other way.  My money is on Josh making the right pass. But who knows, maybe Kincaid drops the pass and the Bills punt and the Dolphins get it at the 20.  We're better off with the INT.  This was the second (maybe there were more) play this year where a Josh 3rd down INT turned into something better than a punt on 4th down.

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Well, the guy tracking Kincaid is downfield so if Josh leads Kincaid he catches it and gets the first down before being tackled.  If Josh throws a flat pass, yep, it's 6 going the other way.  My money is on Josh making the right pass. But who knows, maybe Kincaid drops the pass and the Bills punt and the Dolphins get it at the 20.  We're better off with the INT.  This was the second (maybe there were more) play this year where a Josh 3rd down INT turned into something better than a punt on 4th down.

The guy is locked on Kincaid and Josh the whole way, the moment Josh throws he's gone and it's either broken up or stopped short, maybe we get lucky and just works out, but that defender was anticipating that throw all the way.

[Utah John]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

The guy is locked on Kincaid and Josh the whole way, the moment Josh throws he's gone and it's either broken up or stopped short, maybe we get lucky and just works out, but that defender was anticipating that throw all the way.

I just don't think the defender would be able to catch up to Kincaid if the pass was out in front where it belongs.  Kincaid might not get very far before being tackled, but I think it would be complete.  

[Bad Things]

Thanks for sharing these links, guys.  I always enjoy watch these Baldy videos.  He's very good at explaining things in a simple, clear and concise manner, instead of blowing a lot of hot air like other commentators.

[ExiledInIllinois]

Why didn't Elliott drop the INT on purpose.  Making the pick cost them 15 yards.  It was actually a nice roll of the dice by Josh.  Picks like that really don't show in stat sheet. Like a touchback on punt. 20 yard line don't hurt them.

[Zag20]

4 hours ago, Utah John said:

I just don't think the defender would be able to catch up to Kincaid if the pass was out in front where it belongs.  Kincaid might not get very far before being tackled, but I think it would be complete.  

Probably not, but I think Josh saw the defender and didn’t want to take that risk.

[Brit]

4 hours ago, Zag20 said:

Probably not, but I think Josh saw the defender and didn’t want to take that risk.

Also, we hae been plagued by a few drops in those sorts of situations this year and that could have played on Josh's mind.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

9 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Which considering the blitz is insane.

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

 

I don't think we made good enough adjustments on cover 0.  Don't love the condensed 3x1 there in the red zone as its just going to clog the middle of the field.  Also kind of kills the chances of a fade, which while its a lower percentage play is less likely to be a turnover and is really just a catch it and throw it type of play that beats cover 0.  Iso Diggs on ramsey and let it rip.  

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

 

Even if he does that - josh is late with the throw.