Wild Card Weekend - Wild Card Weather

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I hope there's a snowstorm. The best thing the Pittsburgh offense has done in recent weeks is launch the ball deep to Pickens. Snowy windy weather removes that factor. Allen can still throw the ball, Rudolph really can't. I don't understand why so many Bills fans are more anxious about the game. For my money this gives us a bigger advantage.

 

Bengals divisional game memories.  Patriot wind game meories.  The belief that weather is the great equalizer if there's a talent difference.  The fact that the Steelers script to win is run the ball to control the clock and force/capitalize on Bills offensive mistakes (that is more likely in inclement weather).  I'd rather have ideal conditions to be honest but I agree that we may be a little too concerned about the weather.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Bengals divisional game memories.  Patriot wind game meories.  The belief that weather is the great equalizer if there's a talent difference.  The fact that the Steelers script to win is run the ball to control the clock and force/capitalize on Bills offensive mistakes (that is more likely in inclement weather).  I'd rather have ideal conditions to be honest but I agree that we may be a little too concerned about the weather.

 

I don’t love the weather but im more worried about all the defensive starters or support players that will be out. Rapp possibly out? He has been strong against the run. Same with Dodson. Rasul gone. Watching Hamlin try to stop the run is hard.

47 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

I saw something online about the Chiefs game and the freezing cold that i haven’t seen before. Cardboard. Bring Cardboard.🤔

 

“The Chiefs will allow fans to bring in a piece of cardboard no larger that three feet tall and five feet wide to help keep their feet warm.

"Basically (the cardboard) it cuts down on the conduction," Shaffer said. "So it's not even so much the insulation part as it's just you're not in direct contact with the concrete."

Shaffer said when your boot or other footwear comes into contact with the cold concrete, it literally sucks the heat right out of the bottom of your feet.“

 

 

 

Yea, this actually works.

 

Cardboard acts as an insulator.

[Doc Brown]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I don’t love the weather but im more worried about all the defensive starters or support players that will be out. Rapp possibly out? He has been strong against the run. Same with Dodson. Rasul gone. Watching Hamlin try to stop the run is hard.

I'm guessing Cam Lewis plays the Rapp role and I'd argue that Dane Jackson is arguably a better tackler than Douglas.  Dodson may be our biggest loss but next man up.

[ALG1130]

14 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Bengals divisional game memories.  Patriot wind game meories.  The belief that weather is the great equalizer if there's a talent difference.  The fact that the Steelers script to win is run the ball to control the clock and force/capitalize on Bills offensive mistakes (that is more likely in inclement weather).  I'd rather have ideal conditions to be honest but I agree that we may be a little too concerned about the weather.

For me personally, it's knowing how much the players hate it(which is understandable, I don't think any like it). Jordan Poyer HATES the cold. He gets miserable when October comes around. Josh has talked at length about how he loses feelings in his fingers and toes(I relate!! Might be a raynauds thing). We have not had too many snow games that I can recall in the JA era, but I am thinking of some of the sloppy weather games in the past and how they went.

 

2021 Ravens Divisional game-it wasn't the best. The wind was strong and made life difficult for the offense. I think Josh had some almost passes to Diggs, but they sailed. Taron Johnson's pick six was a game changer.

 

2021 game against Colts. It was windy and a lot of sleet. Bills could not get anything going on offense. I think Bass missed some field goals. We got blown out.

 

2021 Wind storm game-Little to no offense. When he finally started to throw the ball it was too late.

 

2021 Falcons game. Sloppy weather. Sloppy turnovers. Cole Beasley was our saving grace in this one. Josh had some great runs. Was a struggle up till that point.

 

The bad weather game against Cleveland was moved to Detroit, so no comment.

 

Divisional game against Bengals last year? Sloppy. Poor footing on The Bills side.

 

So yeah, hard for me to get excited about this game that will have even worse inclements. 

 

The Bills have done better in bad weather games, like rain ones against Philly and Dallas, so I am hoping maybe this time around the heavy snow won't hinder them too badly, but it's hard to get my hopes up with their history.

Edited January 12 by Aimee75

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

For me personally, it's knowing how much the players hate it(which is understandable, I don't think any like it). Jordan Poyer HATES the cold. He gets miserable when October comes around. Josh has talked at length about how he loses feelings in his fingers and toes(I relate!! Might be a raynauds thing). We have not had too many snow games that I can recall in the JA era, but I am thinking of some of the sloppy weather games in the past and how they went.

 

2021 Ravens Divisional game-it wasn't the best. The wind was strong and made life difficult for the offense. I think Josh had some almost passes to Diggs, but they sailed. Taron Johnson's pick six was a game changer.

 

2021 game against Colts. It was windy and a lot of sleet. Bills could not get anything going on offense. I think Bass missed some field goals. We got blown out.

 

2021 Wind storm game-Little to no offense. When he finally started to throw the ball it was too late.

 

2021 Falcons game. Sloppy weather. Sloppy turnovers. Cole Beasley was our saving grace in this one. Josh had some great runs. Was a struggle up till that point.

 

The bad weather game against Cleveland was moved to Detroit, so no comment.

 

Divisional game against Bengals last year? Sloppy. Poor footing on The Bills side.

 

So yeah, hard for me to get excited about this game that will have even worse inclements. 

 

The Bills have done better in bad weather games, like rain ones against Philly and Dallas, so I am hoping maybe this time around the heavy snow won't hinder them too badly, but it's hard to get my hopes up with their history.

We had the perfect playoff game at sub zero temperatures.  We won 32-29 against the Fish last year where Allen threw for 305 yards and 4 TD's (he played best when the snow started falling heavily in the 4th quarter).  I can buy the wind argument but not the cold/snow.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Bengals divisional game memories.  Patriot wind game meories.  The belief that weather is the great equalizer if there's a talent difference.  The fact that the Steelers script to win is run the ball to control the clock and force/capitalize on Bills offensive mistakes (that is more likely in inclement weather).  I'd rather have ideal conditions to be honest but I agree that we may be a little too concerned about the weather.

 

The Bengals divisional loss had nothing to do with weather. The entire team was completely unprepared to play on any field in any conditions.

 

The Patriots wind game we had a massive advantage in that our QB could actually throw the ball, it just took our coaches way too long to figure that out. Don't make the same mistake again.

 

I don't think we'll have any trouble shutting down the Steelers run game if we barely have to worry about their downfield passing game. We held the Dolphins to 8 rushing yards in the 2nd half just by bringing a safety into the box. The Dolphins have the best rushing offense in the league. So I have zero concerns about the Steelers run game.

 

I am one that believes the Bills should embrace their climate and build a team that can win in those conditions. It's a homefield advantage unlike any other if we use it properly. Having Josh Allen alone gives us that advantage. I sincerely hope the storm is as bad or worse than what the worst forecasts are saying. Win the game 14-0 for all I care. If the Steelers can't pass the ball at all it's practically an automatic win.

 

Edited January 12 by HappyDays

[Big Turk]

Latest hourly forecast for KC saying temps will be around 0 at kickoff and quickly dip to -2 by 9pm and continue getting colder as the game goes on to as low as -6 by the end of the game.  Low temp expected to be -8 there now.

 

Wind only around 13 mph so wind chill won't be too terrible but likely in the -15 to -20 range.

 

Edited January 12 by Big Turk

[ALG1130]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

We had the perfect playoff game at sub zero temperatures.  We won 32-29 against the Fish last year where Allen threw for 305 yards and 4 TD's (he played best when the snow started falling heavily in the 4th quarter).  I can buy the wind argument but not the cold/snow.

That game was amazing. It was very cold, but there was no wind.

 

I feel like The Bills tend to be sloppy in snow, but then again, snow is sloppy. I am hoping they can come out like The Bengals did in the divisional last year, but again, I don't think wind was a huge factor in that game.

[Dick_Cheney]

I don't think there's really such thing as a cold weather team or a significant cold weather home field advantage anymore. I'd love to have the kind of team that's able to dominate in that sort of weather anyways, because if they can do that then when conditions are perfect things should really be impressive.

 

I also don't think that building a team for this kind of weather is a thing that would or should happen. How many guys come into the league every year who have never even seen snow? Weather in Buffalo is ripe for these sort of conditions for maybe the last third of the season, and that's the time where every single win is critical. And then of course the playoffs and home field advantage.

 

I get the historical aspect of it and the "purity" of freezing cold games out in the snow, but the reality is that the game has evolved in such a way that those sort of conditions can cripple a team. The Bills have dealt with enough adversity over the years, I'd personally prefer crappy weather wasn't one more thing to have to plan for and fight against. Truly hoping that the design of the new stadium lives up to its expectations in how it is supposed to minimize the impact of strong wind.

[zow2]

Every time i check this thread, i expect to see a worse forecast. 

2 minutes ago, Dick_Cheney said:

I get the historical aspect of it and the "purity" of freezing cold games out in the snow, but the reality is that the game has evolved in such a way that those sort of conditions can cripple a team. The Bills have dealt with enough adversity over the years, I'd personally prefer crappy weather wasn't one more thing to have to plan for and fight against. Truly hoping that the design of the new stadium lives up to its expectations in how it is supposed to minimize the impact of strong wind.

 

It should be much better. The new stadium will have a higher profile well above ground and the mesh wind diffusers.

 

The current stadium bowl is below ground, wide open and invites in the wind to make it as strong and whipping as it can be.

[ALG1130]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Every time i check this thread, i expect to see a worse forecast. 

Same! The next update will be "hell", if it isn't already.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Every time i check this thread, i expect to see a worse forecast. 

 

It should be much better. The new stadium will have a higher profile well above ground and the mesh wind diffusers.

 

The current stadium bowl is below ground, wide open and invites in the wind to make it as strong and whipping as it can be.

 

Not to mention it has unique features that no other stadium in the NFL has that causes swirling and unpredictable winds at one of the field.  Namely the stadium only has a single tunnel entrance instead of two tunnel entrances that balances out the winds, whereas the single tunnel causes uneven winds that swirl unpredictably and even blow in different directions on the field than they do on the goalpost flags.  This was detailed in length in Jim Kelly's book when he talked about "The Hawk", the name for our wind.

Edited January 12 by Big Turk

[DrPJax]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I hope there's a snowstorm. The best thing the Pittsburgh offense has done in recent weeks is launch the ball deep to Pickens. Snowy windy weather removes that factor. Allen can still throw the ball, Rudolph really can't. I don't understand why so many Bills fans are more anxious about the game. For my money this gives us a bigger advantage.

 

   I don’t see this as anything but advantage Pittsburgh.  They have a power running back , and they come in with running the ball at a very high percentage of their snaps.  Cook is a finesse back and he has not been overly impressive since the cowboys game. Johnson has more power but i am not sure he has cleared the concussion protocol. That could leave us with Murray ( admitting he has slowed down or been less productive) or Lenny who also has not looked very impressive. 

 

    Cook was also getting hit behind the line last week. The O line has struggled against pittsburghs interior lineman in the past. Heywrd has been a big problem. Torrance showed his inexperience, getting blown by and  resulting in a fumble by josh last week. In addition our LT , who punches and needs his hands , has a healing large laceration in his palm area and will probably still need to be protectively wrapped which could alter his effectiveness.  

     Other than scrambles by josh , the run game was not overly impressive. Our scores last week were on special teams, a fluke deflection, and one good pass out to Knox in the flat. If you didn’t see Kurt warners breakdown, Josh is rushing thru his reads and missing many easy throws while waiting for harder throws to develop. . While josh has a strong arm , how can you feel good with gusty winds up to possibly 40-50-60 mph that can affect the ball AFTER it leaves Allen’s hands?                    

     Plus all these guys have shown a propensity for drops in good conditions; do you expect them to be more sure handed with a cold, hard ball being moved by gusts?  This team has lost some games in that type of weather and it really is playing right into perhaps the only scenario that would allow Pittsburgh to keep it close. There’s just no way this is a favorable situation for a bills team that has ball security / turnover issues.  Cook has had fumbling issues and recently dropped two certain TD passes in perfect weather conditions, so are you  saying he will be better in cold , gusty conditions?   Sorry , but i cant logically agree with that. 

 

     I still think the bills should win , but this weather has complicated the game for the Bills. .  In addition, all the injured players who are missing practice are a concern, plus there are additional players who are ill. Dodson , Davis , Douglas, rapp are all possibly out.  Davis being out is possibly the  easiest to replace, but those players out on d are an issue that might come into play. 

      It’s also concerning that we had no adjustments ( until late) for the zero blitzes; again see Kurt warners piece about our lack of hot reads or quick answers for josh. Too many times we were waiting on long developing routes to happen and poor weather is not going to make those routes suddenly easier to connect on. Brady needs to get  across to josh about taking what is designed and getting the ball out early, and Brady also needs to be better at getting receivers to break off routes and recognize blitzes. 

 

Again , the bills are better and should win , but we have seen this o struggle to score in games where they appear to be the better team. They only put up 7 in 3 quarters last week against a depleted defense , so anything like gusty , cold weather is not going to make it easier against a better d who is coached by a better coach like tomlin.

    If josh plays well, stops the terrible dumb turnovers, it should be a W, but ball security could be a bigger issue due to the weather , and Pittsburgh is not as dependent on putting the ball in the air. . Bad weather narrows the talent gap between teams and i cant see this as a benefit to the favorite Bills as you are stating. Let’s hope they learned something from their mistakes last week that resulted in a come from behind , 7 point margin and are prepared schematically for the poor weather. 

Edited January 12 by DrPJax

[Big Turk]

Punting will look something like this: 

 

 

 

On that day, Kelly went 11-16 for 165 yards and 4 TDs.  No reason Allen can't have a similar day.

Edited January 12 by Big Turk

[Dick_Cheney]

27 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Every time i check this thread, i expect to see a worse forecast. 

 

It should be much better. The new stadium will have a higher profile well above ground and the mesh wind diffusers.

 

The current stadium bowl is below ground, wide open and invites in the wind to make it as strong and whipping as it can be.

Actually somehow didn’t realize the current stadium is below ground. Good to know. 

[QCity]

9 minutes ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Actually somehow didn’t realize the current stadium is below ground. Good to know. 

 

That accompanied with the two large upper deck sections which act as airfoils cause the wind to swirl menacingly in the lower bowl. It really was a terrible design in terms of wind management. 

[Success]

Games w/ this kind of wind - if the forecast holds - are pretty rare.

 

The Bills have played in one.  As far as I know, this Steelers team has not.

 

That could be an epic advantage.  Our coaches and most of our players know what works, and what doesn't.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Wind forecast is now inching closer to 30mph. And snow is now almost guaranteed 90% @ 3-5 inches.  This game is going to be a slog.

Edited January 12 by LABILLBACKER

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

I saw something online about the Chiefs game and the freezing cold that i haven’t seen before. Cardboard. Bring Cardboard.🤔

 

“The Chiefs will allow fans to bring in a piece of cardboard no larger that three feet tall and five feet wide to help keep their feet warm.

"Basically (the cardboard) it cuts down on the conduction," Shaffer said. "So it's not even so much the insulation part as it's just you're not in direct contact with the concrete."

Shaffer said when your boot or other footwear comes into contact with the cold concrete, it literally sucks the heat right out of the bottom of your feet.“

 

 

That’s brilliant…I had like 10 layers on for the bills pats wildcard game and everything was toasty except for my feet on that frozen concrete…had tons of socks on and hand warmers in my boots but it made no difference 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Success said:

Games w/ this kind of wind - if the forecast holds - are pretty rare.

 

The Bills have played in one.  As far as I know, this Steelers team has not.

 

That could be an epic advantage.  Our coaches and most of our players know what works, and what doesn't.

 

Steelers can watch tape of the same game too though, and plan accordingly, right?  Hope I’m wrong, I just suspect we’re going to be doing a lot of nail biting during the game, hoping a bounce goes our way near the end.  On the other hand, if we get up early, I could see the game literally “snowballing” away from Pittsburgh, as they try to mount a comeback only to keep digging themselves into a deeper hole and whatever Bills crowd is there going crazy.