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Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:37 PM, TheWei44 said:

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

 

So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

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That's true for independent events.  However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events.  Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch.  You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls.

  • Agree 1
Posted (edited)
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:37 PM, TheWei44 said:

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

 

So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

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I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again.  Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. 

so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument 

 

in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:39 PM, Rew said:

The queen video seemed to imply it was an actual tell. 

 

Really got some perspective for game plans for me.  The idea of some coaching aide hitting rewind/play/rewind/play on the same players all week looking for how much weight they put on their knuckles is crazy.  It helps understand why upsets can happen that seem incomprehensible to fans.

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I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted (edited)

Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change:

 

I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. 
I’ll be able to eat. 
I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re point favorites in Pitts if that happens. * This is wrong and 80 of you told me this already. Sorry, it’s been a day. But if we lose, I still think we beat Miami next week. No way they beat us twice in a row. 
 

Go bills. 

Edited by stevestojan
  • Awesome! (+1) 1
Posted

The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed.

  On 1/7/2024 at 11:44 PM, stevestojan said:

Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change:

 

I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. 
I’ll be able to eat. 
I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re 10 point favorites in Pitts if that happens. 
 

Go bills. 

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If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard.

  • Like (+1) 3
Posted (edited)
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:43 PM, Rockinon said:

I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day.

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I’m thinking we did honestly…we have never had much trouble against tua even with McDaniel around.  There was that one matchup where we couldn’t stop the run despite knowing it was coming.  If it wasn’t us that came up with it there’s no way Baltimore is telling us lol

  On 1/7/2024 at 11:44 PM, UKBillFan said:

The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed.

 

If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard.

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They could be more banged up if they rush guys back for the game tonight…they’re in a tough spot honestly 

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:42 PM, Rew said:

That's true for independent events.  However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events.  Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch.  You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls.

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Agreed, I was treating them as independent events.  But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent.  That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game?  

Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 11:42 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto to for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again.  Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. 

so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument 

 

in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂

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Thanks for the response - I think a lot of what you're saying cuts both ways (e.g., tipping your hand re prime plays) and I was making the huge simplifying assumption of treating the two as independent events.  But point well taken and agreed!!

Posted

And apologies to folks for bogging down this thread with probability and statistics!!  I'm a lowly economist and sometimes can't help myself!!  Go Bills!!

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