Rew Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin. That's not true. It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win). But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game. No reason for the odds to change. We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%. That's true for independent events. However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events. Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch. You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls. 1 Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) 12 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin. That's not true. It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win). But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game. No reason for the odds to change. We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%. I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again. Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂 Edited January 7 by Generic_Bills_Fan Quote
Warcodered Posted January 7 Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, bills6969 said: Anyone find a leak of the script for tonight’s game yet? Yes it says "Pain" I'm just not sure who's. 1 Quote
Rockinon Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Rew said: The queen video seemed to imply it was an actual tell. Really got some perspective for game plans for me. The idea of some coaching aide hitting rewind/play/rewind/play on the same players all week looking for how much weight they put on their knuckles is crazy. It helps understand why upsets can happen that seem incomprehensible to fans. I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day. 1 Quote
stevestojan Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change: I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. I’ll be able to eat. I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re point favorites in Pitts if that happens. * This is wrong and 80 of you told me this already. Sorry, it’s been a day. But if we lose, I still think we beat Miami next week. No way they beat us twice in a row. Go bills. Edited January 7 by stevestojan 1 Quote
UKBillFan Posted January 7 Posted January 7 The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed. Just now, stevestojan said: Thanks to the Titans, my entire outlook on tonight change: I think the bills win by 20+ with the pressure being about 4.3 billion times lower. I’ll be able to eat. I will still hate if they lose, but I think we’re 10 point favorites in Pitts if that happens. Go bills. If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard. 3 Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Rockinon said: I'm wondering if it wasn't the Bills who 1st discovered the tell earlier in the season. The defense had their number that day. I’m thinking we did honestly…we have never had much trouble against tua even with McDaniel around. There was that one matchup where we couldn’t stop the run despite knowing it was coming. If it wasn’t us that came up with it there’s no way Baltimore is telling us lol 6 minutes ago, UKBillFan said: The Dolphins probably won't be as banged up next week. Let's get the second seed. If the Bills lose they're back in Miami for the wildcard. They could be more banged up if they rush guys back for the game tonight…they’re in a tough spot honestly Edited January 7 by Generic_Bills_Fan 1 Quote
Lost Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Is this for real. The dude still can't even walk. Why is he playing? 3 Quote
TheWei44 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Rew said: That's true for independent events. However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events. Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch. You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls. Agreed, I was treating them as independent events. But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent. That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game? Quote
TheWei44 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: I don’t mean the strict probability numbers…I mean you’re likely gonna have to tip your hand and use some of your prime gameplanning plays you may have been holding onto to for the rematch to pull out a win like this then the other team has another week to prepare for seeing it again. Also to have the best chance Miami would have to rush some of their injured players back and that means one less week of rest for them if we see them again. so for me it’s not really a ‘well the bills are 45% to lose so that times two is a lower number’ type argument in a game that’s all about matchups I’m kind of surprised how often people try to bring in probability of random unrelated events type stuff to explain it lol. Not that you’re saying this at all but I’ve seen so many ‘well the law of averages says Miami will win’ type posts 😂 Thanks for the response - I think a lot of what you're saying cuts both ways (e.g., tipping your hand re prime plays) and I was making the huge simplifying assumption of treating the two as independent events. But point well taken and agreed!! Quote
boyst Posted January 7 Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Lost said: Is this for real. The dude still can't even walk. Why is he playing? No joke. He needs aot of work. He's tight af Quote
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 7 Posted January 7 I've been in full on celebration mode since 3 Quote
TheWei44 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 And apologies to folks for bogging down this thread with probability and statistics!! I'm a lowly economist and sometimes can't help myself!! Go Bills!! Quote
Simon Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, boyst said: No joke. He needs aot of work. He's tight af Maybe he just hasn't dropped that pregame log yet? 6 Quote
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