Does Tua Tagovailoa have a "Big Game" problem? (great article)

[Logic]

I really enjoyed this article from The Ringer discussing Tua's performance in big games over the years.

It's well reasoned and has lots of good date and info. It illustrates that Tua's performance gets worse later in the season (even at home), that his worst losses by EPA have mostly come later in the season, and that he does not perform as well in the 4th quarter of games.

There's more to it than just the charts pictured here, and I suggest everyone give this whole article a read.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/5/24026177/dolphins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-future-nfl-playoffs-afc-east











 

[Warriorspikes51]

Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB.  He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly

[Logic]

12 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB.  He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly

Yeah, the article alludes to the following: McDaniel and Shanahan's systems (which are basically the same) are predicated on the concept of identifying just a few things that your offense does really well -- say, post routes, crossers, and outside zone runs -- and building an offense where you get to those few concepts from a multitude of different formations and personnel packages.

The only PROBLEM with that idea is that if and when defenses find out what those few concepts are and recognize the indications that you're about to run them, then you might be in trouble. That is, if the opposing defenses' ability to diagnose and defend your preferred concepts outpaces your ability to disguise them, then your offense may stagnate. This goes back to what Patrick Queen was saying about the Dolphins and 49ers having "tells" that they picked up on. Hopefully the Bills defense has recognized the same.

Edited January 5 by Logic

[BuffaloBill]

Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh.  There is a ton of film out there on the two of them.

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh.  There is a ton of film out there on the two of them.

I really wish we could put Diggs inside more often and attack with quick slants. He’s truly elite on those and for whatever reasons it seems most of his routes are always close to the sideline. (Unless it’s my imagination)

 

The few times we’ve shown up-tempo, quick release offense we are borderline unstoppable.

Edited January 5 by Warriorspikes51

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Pretty telling stuff. Though to a lesser degree and with far more talent you have to wonder if that is what has happened to Diggs and Josh.  There is a ton of film out there on the two of them.

There is plenty of tape of Josh and Diggs but there is also plenty of Tua to Waddle and Hill.

 

The bills don't have a RB that averages 8 yards/carry.  That's something that will always be on the mind of a DC.

[finn]

35 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I really wish we could put Diggs inside more often and attack with quick slants. He’s truly elite on those and for whatever reasons it seems most of his routes are always close to the sideline. (Unless it’s my imagination)

 

The few times we’ve shown up-tempo, quick release offense we are borderline unstoppable.

Right, it's a mystery why they stopped the quick-tempo offense. It's almost like Dorsey thought, "Well, that works, so let's move away from it, just to fool them." I don't recall Brady going back to it, either. 

[machine gun kelly]

Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled.  Most likely a heavy dose of Achan.  Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week.

 

They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing.  We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy.  I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup.

[RiotAct]

1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said:

Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled.  Most likely a heavy dose of Achan.  Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week.

 

They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing.  We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy.  I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup.

I think Waddle is trending towards playing

[HOUSE]

He bangs his head a lot which is not good

[BRH]

32 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

I think Waddle is trending towards playing

 

I think that's a smokescreen.  If he plays and aggravates it to the point where he's not available next week, that would be stupid.

 

Then again, (1) who knows what secret elixirs they're pumping into players down there, and (2) they were stupid enough to leave Chubb in the game last week.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Intriguing. I think Tua seems like a quality guy. I’m not sold on him being a top tier QB.  He’s had a really good season. A lot of his success is built on timing. If he has to hold the ball / WR’s routes are disrupted…his level of play seems to decrease rapidly

 

He is a system QB that requires a LOT around him to look good. 

 

If he has to carry a team, forget it.

 

So sure, you can win with him but at some point it just becomes a lot to overcome when things have to near perfect for him to succeed. Prefer Allen or Mahomes that can make things happen even when they aren't perfect.

 

Paying Tua $50 million a year is going to ensure the Fins aren't very good for a long time since they will have to skimp on other areas on their roster and he can't make up for it.

Edited January 6 by Big Turk

[atlbillsfan1975]

If he gets the ball out under 2.5 seconds, plays in the “system”, he is very efficient. Bills did a great job of jamming receivers/clogging passing lanes in the first meeting. This allowed the dline to get after Tua.  Hopefully more of the same this game.

Edited January 6 by atlbillsfan1975

[transient]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He is a system QB that requires a LOT around him to look good. 

 

If he has to carry a team, forget it.

 

So sure, you can win with him but at some point it just becomes a lot to overcome when things have to near perfect for him to succeed. Easier to get Allen or Mahomes that can make things happen even when they aren't perfect.

At the moment, he's a system QB on a rookie contract so they can still afford to put a lot of talent around him... that will soon change.

[Sierra Foothills]

Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons.

 

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

There is plenty of tape of Josh and Diggs but there is also plenty of Tua to Waddle and Hill.

 

The bills don't have a RB that averages 8 yards/carry.  That's something that will always be on the mind of a DC.

 

Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins.

 

Those things are a platform for QB success.

 

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Well Waddle I think is ruled out, and Hill is hobbled.  Most likely a heavy dose of Achan.  Mostert is out as well or at least hasn’t practiced all week.

 

They also have I believe Jalen Smith, and Chubb probably not playing.  We have a good chance as we’re pretty darn healthy.  I know Hamlin, but he’s a backup.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. 

 

[LeGOATski]

Tua is not great. He can't elevate his team. He has to rely on his team to elevate him. In crunch time, when great competition is stepping up to win big games, Tua's teammates are naturally gonna struggle and Tua is not capable of making up for it like a truly great QB can.

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons.

 

 

Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins.

 

Those things are a platform for QB success.

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. 

 

 

Not interestingly...he is always injured by then.

[Dr.Sack]

Tua only needs to play one good game. The margin for error is thin in 2023/24. We need a great pass rush.

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Interestingly, Tua has not played in a playoff game in his 4 NFL seasons.

 

 

Yes, any QB would be ecstatic to have wideouts like Hill and Waddle... and a running attack like the Dolphins.

 

Those things are a platform for QB success.

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Waddle and Mostert played against the Bills but regardless we have a big advantage on the injury report. 

 

Yeah, usually if they don’t practice the entire week, it’s doubtful, but we’ll find out.

[Saint Doug]

So, basically, this is going to come down to the 4th quarter of the final game of the season, maybe even final play, and despite the best efforts of McD, we’re actually going to win this.