Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[GunnerBill]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

This is true of every elite QB in the NFL today.  I agree that Allen owns some of this but at the same time the Bills have not focused on surrounding him with high end play makers until just this off season and that was through the draft. 

 

Allen is the reason the Bills are playing for a division title tomorrow and the reason that they've won at least 10 games for the last 5 seasons, and are on the cusp of winning at least 11 games for 4 straight seasons and are about to make it 5 straight playoff seasons and 4 straight division titles.

 

IMO nitpicking what Allen could do a little better to get the Bills over the hump is the last place this team needs to look.  

 

 

 

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

I agree and I'm not saying you are doing the nitpicking.  But even a casual read of these threads can see that there are some Bills fans who nitpick Allen to death.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bengal's made a decision based on what was best for their offense.  They did this because they have an elite QB and they have worked tirelessly the last few seasons to surround him with the best possible talent on O.  The Bills made off season FA decisions based on what was best for their defense. At its core this is the fundamental difference between Buffalo and the other leading SB contenders this season.

 

 

 

 

 

I mean the Bengals have thrown more money at their oline than the Bills and this year got worse results up front. Where else does this investment you speak of show up? It isn't in their receivers - all 3 of those guys were draft picks. 

 

And on "the Bills need to draft receivers higher" no arguments. I have been draggin Brandon Beane for that for 3 years.

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean the Bengals have thrown more money at their oline than the Bills and this year got worse results up front. Where else does this investment you speak of show up? It isn't in their receivers - all 3 of those guys were draft picks. 

 

And on "the Bills need to draft receivers higher" no arguments. I have been draggin Brandon Beane for that for 3 years.

The fact is the Bengals are a franchise that focuses on the offense as a direct result of having an elite QB:

 

*  They have an offensive head coach

 

*  They used the 5th pick in the draft to take Chase.

 

*  They have invested heavily in their O line to mixed results (like we have on the D line) but there is no denying that the Bengals are better up front then they were in 2021.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

The fact is the Bengals are a franchise that focuses on the offense as a direct result of having an elite QB:

 

*  They have an offensive head coach

 

*  They used the 5th pick in the draft to take Chase.

 

*  They have invested heavily in their O line to mixed results (like we have on the D line) but there is no denying that the Bengals are better up front then they were in 2021.

 

 

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

[Andrew Son]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

And, let's see what happens with these Bengals contracts moving forward.

[Since1981]

I’m not a scout. 
but it seems like the Pro Scout side has been successful getting vets on D. But aside from Diggs nearly 4 years ago, not much impact from pro scout dept on offense in past 4 yrs

Edited January 6 by Since1981

[Straight Hucklebuck]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

Average Allen game under Brady (6 games now):

 

18.2 completions 

31.8 attempts

224.5 yards

57.1 completion %

7.3 yards/attempt

1.30 TDs per game

0.8 Interceptions/game

 

Rating = 84.4

QBR = 57.25

 

From a running standpoint:

8.0 rushing attempts/game

35.2 yards/game

4.2 yards/attempt

1.3 TDs/game

 

 

Edited January 6 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bengal's made a decision based on what was best for their offense.  They did this because they have an elite QB and they have worked tirelessly the last few seasons to surround him with the best possible talent on O.  The Bills made off season FA decisions based on what was best for their defense. At its core this is the fundamental difference between Buffalo and the other leading SB contenders this season.

 

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense.  Exact same thing last year.  When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D.  It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety.

 

They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. 

 

Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. 

 

But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint.  They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA.  They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted.  And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there.

 

The Bengals, like other teams, are trying to build a team where they balance offense and defense.  It shows in how they're spending their cap.  It shows in making hard decisions like not to extend Higgins, to let Hurst walk after a year, and this year Boyd is headed for FA.  It shows in how they're using their 1st-3rd draft picks the last two seasons, despite knowing their Superstar WRs Chase and Higgins are going to need to be paid soon.

 

Frankly, the problem the Bills have had on O hasn't so much been under-investment, as that their investments on O haven't worked out here - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, Zack Moss, even Spencer Brown.  And it's not that these guys totally can't play, since Jones looked like a real #2 for Jax last season and helped them to playoffs last year and this.  Cody Ford is playing OG for that "makes decisions based on what is best for their offense and surround their QB with the Best Possible Talent on O" team you extol.  And Zack Moss is tearing it up for the Colts, who are currently leading the AFC South.  Spencer Brown is looking like a good RB OT, still shaky in pass pro.

TL;DR Come On Man.  The picture is way more nuanced than you write.  The Bengals have made decisions on contracts and draft picks that balance offense and defense, just like we have.  You can make an argument that the Bills have under-invested in receiver and OL until recently, but a detailed look just doesn't support your contentions about the Bengals making decisions based on what was best for their offense or "working tirelessly to surround him with the best possible talent on O".

Edit to correct that as 2nd round pick Higgens has no 5th round option thanks to @Straight Hucklebuck for pointing that out.  And to LOL at ScottLaw X'ing disagreement on a post that is largely factual. Which part you disagree with bro?  The fact that the Bengals used Rd 1-3 on D last 2 years?  That their top cap hits are evenly split between O and D?  That they let Hurst walk and replaced him with a vet min guy?  Or maybe you think Zay Jones and Cody Ford actually did work out here?    😅 

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[warrior9]

23 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The fact that different QBs on the same team with the same WRs see different separation makes the whole thing a bit dubious 

Lol .. how so? Receivers play the same game against the same people and run the exact same way for every opponent? 

 

So if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Everett are hurt, you expect the backs ups to get the same separation for Easton Stick? Injuries happen, different defenses, route combo's etc. It's not dubious in the slightest. There is a lot of variance in every game in the NFL. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

 

Nice Brit-style understatement.

As I pointed out elsewhere, part of the problem with the Bills investment on offense hasn't been that they didn't make one, it's that it hasn't worked out - or it aged out and wasn't adequately replaced. 

-The Bills drafted Zay Jones in the 2nd the year before they drafted Allen.  The Bengals drafted Tee Higgings in the 2nd the year they drafted Burrow. 

-The Bills signed Beasley and Brown Allen's 2nd year - Beasley was a fantastic add in the slot for 3 years.  The Bengals already had Tyler Boyd on the roster. 

-The Bills used a 1st round pick to trade for Diggs after Allen's 2nd year. The Bengals drafted Chase in Burrow's 2nd year. 

 

It's not that the Bills haven't made any investment on O, it's that some of the investments they made either didn't work out here for whatever reason (Jones, Moss, Ford) OR aged out and weren't adequately replaced.

 

The Bengals havent' extended Higgins so he'll be a FA. Boyd is 29 and will be a FA. They need to make a decision on Chase's 5th year this off-season.  It remains to be seen how the Bengals will handle this aging out/FA loss replacement.

 

edit: was pointed out Higgens has no 5th year option as a 2nd round pick, Thanks @Straight Hucklebuck

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[Straight Hucklebuck]

31 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense.  Exact same thing last year.  When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D.  It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety.

 

They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. 

 

Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. 

 

But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint.  They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA.  They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted.  And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there.

 

The Bengals, like other teams, are trying to build a team where they balance offense and defense.  It shows in how they're spending their cap.  It shows in making hard decisions like not to pick up Higgins 5th year option or let Hurst walk after a year, and this year Boyd is headed for FA.  It shows in how they're using their 1st-3rd draft picks the last two seasons, despite knowing their Superstar WRs Chase and Higgins are going to need to be paid soon.

 

Frankly, the problem the Bills have had on O hasn't so much been under-investment, as that their investments on O haven't worked out here - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, Zack Moss, even Spencer Brown.  And it's not that these guys totally can't play, since Jones looked like a real #2 for Jax last season and helped them to playoffs last year and this.  Cody Ford is playing OG for that "makes decisions based on what is best for their offense and surround their QB with the Best Possible Talent on O" team you extol.  And Zack Moss is tearing it up for the Colts, who are currently leading the AFC South.  Spencer Brown is looking like a good RB OT, still shaky in pass pro.

TL;DR Come On Man.  The picture is way more nuanced than you write.  The Bengals have made decisions on contracts and draft picks that balance offense and defense, just like we have.  You can make an argument that the Bills have under-invested in receiver and OL until recently, but a detailed look just doesn't support your contentions about the Bengals making decisions based on what was best for their offense or "working tirelessly to surround him with the best possible talent on O".

Higgins is a second round pick, there is no 5th year option. 
 

Bengals fans down here are not anticipating Mike Brown ponying up the market contract money, they think is will be Isovias taking that spot.

 

And to your point, they bypassed a chance to get a good Tight End in the draft and trade deadline. 

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Higgins is a second round pick, there is no 5th year option. 
 

Bengals fans down here are not anticipating Mike Brown ponying up the market contract money, they think is will be Isovias taking that spot.

 

And to your point, they bypassed a chance to get a good Tight End in the draft and trade deadline. 

 

I sit corrected. 

 

Point stands that two of the Bengals 3 star WR are gonna hit FA this year along with their OT Jonah Williams and key defender DJ Reader.  

 

We'll see how they handle that. 

 

43 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Lol .. how so? Receivers play the same game against the same people and run the exact same way for every opponent? 

 

So if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Everett are hurt, you expect the backs ups to get the same separation for Easton Stick? Injuries happen, different defenses, route combo's etc. It's not dubious in the slightest. There is a lot of variance in every game in the NFL. 

 

I think the point is, some of us look at that graph and it pops out that it can't be a graph of what one might think, the separation of all the receivers on the field a specific play.  I'm not sure exactly what that metric is, or how it's being calculated, but OP's interpretation "Bills WR are not getting open" probably isn't what it shows.

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I sit corrected. 

 

Point stands that two of the Bengals 3 star WR are gonna hit FA this year along with their OT Jonah Williams and key defender DJ Reader.  

 

We'll see how they handle that. 

Historically the Bengals don’t spend money in FA. 

Last year they sat on the wayside and watched: Perine, Hurst, Bates, Bell, Tre Flowers, Eli Apple walk off the team. 

 

Pratt came back on a team-friendly deal, and they locked up Logan Wilson in the middle of this season. 
 

It wasn’t until late in FA they brought Nick Scott in. 

So they’re looking at Reader, Williams, Boyd, Higgins, Awuzie. 

Last year they compensated for the FA losses in the secondary with the draft, they’re set in the secondary for 2024. 

I anticipate DT for them, and they’ll add to the offense.

 

Even when they drafted Chase at #5, the other option being discussed here was Sewell because Burrow’s knee was wrecked the season before. 

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is why I tell people - I can not watch the televised film and tell whether it's true that "no one is getting open" during a game.   I know some people here can - they know enough ball that they can make an educated guess as to what all the routes look like and what coverage it is, just based on the glimpses on network - but I suspect that most of those who opine 'no receivers are open' are typically more like me, because when I do watch All 22 I see open receivers.

 

And when a receiver is open - it takes careful observation to tell, was he open at the right time, when Josh needed to make a decision to throw?

 

Then there's the question of the design of the play, what order are the reads.

Then there are the posters that insist that all reads are high-low, left-right, etc. when in fact there is a primary read of the play design on paper, but the order of operations changes when you get to the line and see the coverage. Then that order of operations can in fact change again post snap once you read and react. 
 

We’ve seen a million former QB’s break down film on a million plays across the league and say “when the QB sees player x do y, the QB should know to immediately look at z”. 
 

I am no football/x’s and o’s guru but I’ve made a huge effort to watch all 22 for a few years and wrap my head around the intricacies of the NFL game. It’s certainly fascinating. The more I learn the more I realize none of us on this message board know. The least of which are the posters who parrot “our offensive reads are high-low”.

 

TL;DR Football is complicated. 

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Historically the Bengals don’t spend money in FA. 

Last year they sat on the wayside and watched: Perine, Hurst, Bates, Bell, Tre Flowers, Eli Apple walk off the team. 

 

Pratt came back on a team-friendly deal, and they locked up Logan Wilson in the middle of this season. 
 

It wasn’t until late in FA they brought Nick Scott in. 

So they’re looking at Reader, Williams, Boyd, Higgins, Awuzie. 

Last year they compensated for the FA losses in the secondary with the draft, they’re set in the secondary for 2024. 

I anticipate DT for them, and they’ll add to the offense.

 

Even when they drafted Chase at #5, the other option being discussed here was Sewell because Burrow’s knee was wrecked the season before. 

 

 

Bengals spent $64M, $31M guaranteed, on Orlando Brown Jr.  That's a pretty big spend.  $21M on Germaine Pratt?  Now I grant you their cap hits last year were pretty small potatoes, and I haven't looked at the contract details.  But seems like they do spend at times.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Bengals spent $64M, $31M guaranteed, on Orlando Brown Jr.  That's a pretty big spend.  $21M on Germaine Pratt?  Now I grant you their cap hits last year were pretty small potatoes, and I haven't looked at the contract details.  But seems like they do spend at times.

Hendrickson and Reader were FAs.

 

As was Bell. 
 

Yeah, they’re not know as big FA players.

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

Then there are the posters that insist that all reads are high-low, left-right, etc. when in fact there is a primary read of the play design on paper, but the order of operations changes when you get to the line and see the coverage. Then that order of operations can in fact change again post snap once you read and react. 
 

We’ve seen a million former QB’s break down film on a million plays across the league and say “when the QB sees player x do y, the QB should know to immediately look at z”. 
 

I am no football/x’s and o’s guru but I’ve made a huge effort to watch all 22 for a few years and wrap my head around the intricacies of the NFL game. It’s certainly fascinating. The more I learn the more I realize none of us on this message board know. The least of which are the posters who parrot “our offensive reads are high-low”.

 

TL;DR Football is complicated. 

 

There are about 4 guys on this board (2 of whom don't post much any more) who really have a deep understanding of the X's and O's of football, and interestingly both who are still posting at times have more of a defensive background (which means they very well understand where the QB ought to attack on a given coverage).  So it's not quite "none", but it's close.

 

But yeah, the fascination of football to me is the intricacy of the game, and the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know and how much there is to know.

[Mango]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

There are about 4 guys on this board (2 of whom don't post much any more) who really have a deep understanding of the X's and O's of football, and interestingly both who are still posting at times have more of a defensive background (which means they very well understand where the QB ought to attack on a given coverage).  So it's not quite "none", but it's close.

 

But yeah, the fascination of football to me is the intricacy of the game, and the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know and how much there is to know.

None was hyperbole. There are a couple here who understand the film at a fairly high level. But most of us (myself included) are basically schmoes.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

I think one problem with Allen’s passing this season is the over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs. We need to just find the open receiver, regardless of who it is. I know Diggs is WR1, but he doesn’t always get open. I know he gets angry when he thinks he’s under utilized, but that’s just the way it is sometimes.  I completely agree we need to make our first pick next April a WR, if there’s a good one available.