Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Allen is 8th in the NFL (according to PFF) under pressure this year.

 

And over the last month the worst in the NFL when not under pressure.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

Yeah, I posted the same thing in the MVP thread and was told that it doesn't mean what I think it does.  Yes it does mean that.

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, julian said:

I just see lots of fans crying because Allen isn’t lighting up stat sheet, since Brady took over the Bills have become the most run heavy team in the league and cut down significantly on turnovers, and are 5-1 over that stretch.

 

 Coincidence ? Probably not.

 

Not a coincidence, but Allen's passing hasn't really been much different between Dorsey & Brady.

 

With Dorsey, Josh averaged 35 attempts, 1.9 passing TDs vs 1.1 INTs per game 

With Brady, Josh averages 32 attempts, 1.3 passing TDs vs 0.8 INTs per game. 

 

If you want to remove the 1 outlier game for both Dorsey & Brady (Josh's 3 INT Jets game and his 7 for 15 attempts against the Cowboys), it's even closer:

 

Dorsey - 34 attempts, 2 TDs v 0.9 INTs per game

Brady - 35 attempts, 1.4 TDs v 1 INT per game

 

Overall, we're 2-4 when Josh has 40+ attempts this year, but even under Brady we're still passing quite a lot. If Josh isn't finding his receivers (or they're dropping passes), Brady needs to find a way to get the run game going more effectively. 

 

The more you have Allen pass, the more likely he's going to force the issue to try & makeup for past failures... ultimately leading to even worse outcomes.

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I had just listened to that. Cossel said he leaves the pocket prematurely sometimes, but he also said if you want to take that away from him, you’re going to be taking away some of the big jaw-dropping plays he does as well. So you have to find that balance. Because staying in the pocket a half second longer, may mean you HAVE to throw from that pocket, as the escape lanes may be gone after you wait.

 

As the game goes on QBs get a count in their head.  When that count is up its time to move or get rid of the ball.

[Simon]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

Overall, we're 2-4 when Josh has 40+ attempts this year, but even under Brady we're still passing quite a lot.

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Bills have the highest run to pass ratio in the NFL since Brady took over.

[balln]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

For those who don’t care to watch (probably a good idea), this is one of the first plays they use to demonstrate that Allen missed open receivers. Allen has three defenders in his face and he is blamed for not hitting Diggs. This is an INT waiting to happen as that defensive back has a great opportunity to jump the pass from his position. This is the quality of analysis.

 

 

PS, yes, there were a few missed receivers in this game, but context always matters (pressure, where Allen is within his reads and progressions, etc).

Look at Gabe lol. Waste 

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

 

Another from the video. Josh didn’t hit Diggs 25 yards down field, on the run, with two defenders about to pummel him. It was a scramble drill and THIS was used as an example of Allen missing an open guy. The analysis in the video was a joke.

 

 

I get that i’m an Allen homer but my goodness some of the stuff he is getting blamed for is wild.

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

[Simon]

6 minutes ago, balln said:

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

 

Judging whether guys are open from still photographs after the QB has already thrown the ball is an exercise in futility.

[balln]

4 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Judging whether guys are open from still photographs after the QB has already thrown the ball is an exercise in futility.

Theres no judgement there. Objectively. Wide open. 7 yards in every direction. 

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

What is interesting here is the wild disparities in "separation" on teams who have started multiple QB's. Browning vs Burrow being one of them. That is a great corp and somehow under Browning the separation is a full standard deviation less than it was with Burrow? 

The biggest thing I am taking from this is that WR separation has a lot of variables and not the black and white stat that a lot of posters seem to sell it as. 

[Simon]

1 minute ago, balln said:

Theres no judgement there. Objectively. Wide open. 7 yards in every direction. 

 

You have no idea who was moving where when Josh made the decision, no idea whether or not he was open at that point and you'll never know from a picture like that.

Your opinion is 100% subjective.

 

[Mango]

The issue with Josh a lot of the time is attempting the pass he could make vs. the pass he should make. 

When he scrambles and/or he's hot there isn't a better QB in the league. But when those wow plays don't go our way his game can be clunky. He often makes plays nobody else in the league can make. But that means that sometimes he overlooks plays every other QB in the league would make and take the profit for the next play.

This doesn't make him a bad QB. But leveling this out and picking his spots better would improve the offense overall. 

I love me some Josh Allen, but this is something that will frustrate a good portion of the fanbase for eternity. It doesn't frustrate others as much and that is OK too. Both groups are correct. 

[Jauronimo]

49 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

You have no idea who was moving where when Josh made the decision, no idea whether or not he was open at that point and you'll never know from a picture like that.

Your opinion is 100% subjective.

 

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

 

He's sprinting away from two pass rushers with another LB bearing down on him... He isn't scanning the field at that point. I know Allen has done superhuman things but let's be fair about what he is physically doing on this play and not act like we're playing Madden. Diggs immediately goes into scramble drill mode and takes his route deep. Allen locks onto him because he's running out of time... The truth is a true alpha #1 WR turns that throw either into a crazy catch or a DPI and nothing in between. But Diggs hasn't been that guy lately.

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

He delivered the ball cleanly in this screenshot.  Maybe, MAYBE, he couldn't step into it a few more inches than he would have liked.  He needs to make that throw. He missed guys all afternoon and all night against LAC.

 

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He's not a mid level franchise QB like a Trevor Lawrence....this is a throw Allen should make.  Not every time, he's human.  But he's missing a lot...

And individual misses are highlighted more because of his inconsistency.  

 

The throw highlighted in that picture was effectively a throw away. Diggs ran a post corner but was unable to separate and finish his route against 1v1 coverage so Allen just threw it over him to avoid a sack. At no point was that pass coming close to being a completion.

 

If you watch that play on the all-22, the play to make was Shakir replacing the blitz on a quick slant from the right slot. I don't know Allen's reads on this play. If he is supposed to lock onto Diggs in 1v1 man coverage no matter what then the play failing is on Diggs for failing to separate. If Allen is supposed to replace the blitz with the throw then it's on him for not reading the blitz pre-snap and getting his eyes over to Shakir.

[Simon]

22 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

 

Every QB in the history of the NFL misses multiple open guys in every single game they've ever played.

It's not an issue unless it becomes egregious, and imo it is not anywhere approaching egregious.

As for the play in question, I don't recall the underneath coverage precisely, but I do know that particular screen shot is utterly useless in determining who was open when, which is all I was trying to say.

[HappyDays]

This shows that Allen is the best QB in the NFL against what PFF defines as perfect coverage.

[dayman]

Giants….

[Big Turk]

Allen has missed a ton of longer throws this year that he was hitting with regularly last year.

[Chaos]

A subset of Bills fan's grade Allen (and no one else) against perfection.  And every week are thrilled to prove absolutely that he wasn't perfect. 

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, balln said:

Look at Gabe lol. Waste 

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

 

1) QB’s don’t have 180 degree field vision. They can’t see everything at one time. Not Brady. Not Kelly. Not Mahomes. Not anyone.
 

2) Allen was not at that point in his progression. He saw Diggs, his first read, have an open look. But by the time Diggs uncovered, three defenders were about to demolish Allen.

 

3) For both of these reasons, and many more, Allen did not look to Kincaid.

 

You can find “open” receivers for every QB. But the context matters.

[Buffalo ill]

7 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

What’s the x axis? Is that hundredths of yards? So Baltimore WRs are on average 3/4 inch more open than the bills? 
 

who publishes this nonsense??
 

 

I think it's shills for these random "just made up a new football stat"  sites, who advertise for said sites by posting links on these forums.