Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

 

there are 14- 17 QBs below Allen and about 3 got the starting job due to injury, 

 

3? Levis came in for injured Tannehill. Stick came in for injured Herbert. Bagent came in for injured Fields. Minshew came in for an injury. Flacco came in for an injured Watson. Browning came in for an injury Burrow. Siemian came in for injured Wilson (and then kept the job). Zappe is also a backup, though he came in not due to injury but rather poor play, and Howell was benched.

 

There are 6 starting QB’s below Allen. Mahomes, Fields, Bryce, Herbert, Murray, Pickett. So, 26th instead of 27th?

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I had just listened to that. Cossel said he leaves the pocket prematurely sometimes, but he also said if you want to take that away from him, you’re going to be taking away some of the big jaw-dropping plays he does as well. So you have to find that balance. Because staying in the pocket a half second longer, may mean you HAVE to throw from that pocket, as the escape lanes may be gone after you wait.

 

You're not taking away something from a QB who is bailing on clean pockets.  You're supposed to stay in clean pockets unless there is a gigantic gap where the QB can run or a designed run.

 

Allen makes jaw dropping plays in the pocket as well.  He's not playing within any consistency the way he is playing now.  

When he starts playing well in the pocket, that's when you will see the best of Allen.  Currently right now, when not under pressure, he's playing poorly.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

27 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's what Cossell was saying.  

 

He's not sliding within the pocket, he's bailing.  When Allen slides inside the pocket and gives himself a .5 seconds more, I'm not sure there is a better QB.

 

That’s been missing from his game lately.  2020 his pocket presence was the best I’d ever seen in a Bills Jersey. Now it seems to come and go. 

[peterpan]

A lot of this would be scheme.  The ravens scheme is pretty awesome.  So is miamis.  Ours pretty much sucks 

[Jauronimo]

Tape shows a lot of open guys.

 

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2024/01/02/bedards-breakdown-defense-had-it-moments-but-josh-allen-was-responsible-for-patriots-not-getting-blown-out

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Also wondering what pass defense rankings the Ravens played this year. Know Bills played lots of good defenses this year and great pass defenses.

Bengals. Colts, Steelers, Titans, Cardinals, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams, Jaguars are all rated bottom half of the league for total defense.

Bengals. Colts, Steelers, Titans, Cardinals, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams, Jaguars, Lions are bottom half for passing D with most of those teams ranked bottom 10

Season hindsight suggests the Ravens might have had an easy schedule 

Edited January 5 by ddaryl

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You're not taking away something from a QB who is bailing on clean pockets.  You're supposed to stay in clean pockets unless there is a gigantic gap where the QB can run or a designed run.

 

I don’t agree because the numbers just don’t back it up. Allen’s output outside the pocket is FAR better than in, and this has been the case his entire career.

 

Entire teams defensive philosophies have been to keep him IN the pocket. The Dolphins defensive players talked about this last year. 

 

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Currently right now, when not under pressure, he's playing poorly.

 

Allen is 8th in the NFL (according to PFF) under pressure this year.

[hondo in seattle]

My first thought is we need to hire someone from the Ravens or Giants because they apparently know to scheme guys open.  

Then I remembered, we had Daboll.  Frustratingly, neither Dorsey nor Brady seemed to learn from him how to design a passing game that creates separation.  

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Tape shows a lot of open guys.

 

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2024/01/02/bedards-breakdown-defense-had-it-moments-but-josh-allen-was-responsible-for-patriots-not-getting-blown-out

 

That was ugly.

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I don’t agree because the numbers just don’t back it up. Allen’s output outside the pocket is FAR better than in, and this has been the case his entire career.

 

Entire teams defensive philosophies have been to keep him IN the pocket. The Dolphins defensive players talked about this last year. 

 

 

Allen is 8th in the NFL (according to PFF) under pressure this year.

 

When he's good in the pocket, he becomes a true dual threat.  He's not good in the pocket right now and why he's not playing well.

I'm not saying he's not great outside the pocket.  But he's much better when he's good at both....he's not right now.  

 

Look at my statement again.  When Allen is NOT under pressure, meaning clean pockets, he's been very poor for the last few games.  Joe Marino discussed it on his podcast.

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Tape shows a lot of open guys.

 

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2024/01/02/bedards-breakdown-defense-had-it-moments-but-josh-allen-was-responsible-for-patriots-not-getting-blown-out

 

For those who don’t care to watch (probably a good idea), this is one of the first plays they use to demonstrate that Allen missed open receivers. Allen has three defenders in his face and he is blamed for not hitting Diggs. This is an INT waiting to happen as that defensive back has a great opportunity to jump the pass from his position. This is the quality of analysis.

 

 

PS, yes, there were a few missed receivers in this game, but context always matters (pressure, where Allen is within his reads and progressions, etc).

[Jauronimo]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

For those who don’t care to watch (probably a good idea), this is one of the first plays they use to demonstrate that Allen missed open receivers. Allen has three defenders in his face and he is blamed for not hitting Diggs. This is an INT waiting to happen as that defensive back has a great opportunity to jump the pass from his position. This is the quality of analysis.

 

 

PS, yes, there were a few missed receivers in this game, but context always matters (pressure, where Allen is within his reads and progressions, etc).

He delivered the ball cleanly in this screenshot.  Maybe, MAYBE, he couldn't step into it a few more inches than he would have liked.  He needs to make that throw. He missed guys all afternoon and all night against LAC.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

For those who don’t care to watch (probably a good idea), this is one of the first plays they use to demonstrate that Allen missed open receivers. Allen has three defenders in his face and he is blamed for not hitting Diggs. This is an INT waiting to happen as that defensive back has a great opportunity to jump the pass from his position. This is the quality of analysis.

 

 

PS, yes, there were a few missed receivers in this game, but context always matters (pressure, where Allen is within his reads and progressions, etc).

 

He's not a mid level franchise QB like a Trevor Lawrence....this is a throw Allen should make.  Not every time, he's human.  But he's missing a lot...

And individual misses are highlighted more because of his inconsistency.  

Edited January 5 by Royale with Cheese

[Einstein]

Just now, Jauronimo said:

He delivered the ball cleanly in this screenshot.  Maybe, MAYBE, he couldn't step into it a few more inches than he would have liked. 

 

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

Just now, Jauronimo said:

 

He needs to make that throw. He missed guys all afternoon and all night against LAC.

 

Another from the video. Josh didn’t hit Diggs 25 yards down field, on the run, with two defenders about to pummel him. It was a scramble drill and THIS was used as an example of Allen missing an open guy. The analysis in the video was a joke.

 

 

I get that i’m an Allen homer but my goodness some of the stuff he is getting blamed for is wild.

[Jauronimo]

14 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

 

Another from the video. Josh didn’t hit Diggs 25 yards down field, on the run, with two defenders about to pummel him. It was a scramble drill and THIS was used as an example of Allen missing an open guy. The analysis in the video was a joke.

 

 

I get that i’m an Allen homer but my goodness some of the stuff he is getting blamed for is wild.

He missed routine throws and he didn't make the highlight reel throws that we are accustomed to seeing.  The video acknowledges that.  Save your screen shots.  I watched the film.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

Or WR corp has been woefully inadequate for a long time now. Beane needs to step it up this offseason. WR needs to be the #1 & #2 priorities. 

11 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

He missed routine throws and he didn't make the highlight reel throws that we are accustomed to seeing.  The video acknowledges that.  Save your screen shots.  I watched the film.

I see 2 guys wide open that should have been his targets, NOT Diggs at all.  This is the most frustrating part of Allen.

[Simon]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

The issue with a lot of these analyses has to do with expectations I think. We see him make these throws that nobody else in the world makes, and we see it on almost a weekly basis. Hell, we've seen him makes throws that I've never seen any other QB make. Ever. So it sets this unattainable standard as an expectation and then when he comes out and just plays "good", it looks like a below average performance when in reality it's just the same hits and misses we see from other good QBs every single week.

As for last week, he just got put through the wringer by one of the 2-3 best defensive coaches in the history of this sport. That's probably the best designed and called defense he'll see this year and he only threw the one pick (which was a spectacular defensive play on a 50yrd throw),  put up 20 points (despite at least 4-5 bad drops), made a bunch of plays with his feet and won a game they really needed. It was a scrappy, solid game from a tough veteran QB but because he missed a couple very difficult throws that we see him make at times, there's a narrative that he wasn't good. It may have been one of the "worst" 2-3 games he played on the year, but it was also the kind of outing that Belichick frequently forces all good QB's into. And he still won.

When the standard has become superhuman, plain old human tends to pale in comparison.

 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

When the standard has become superhuman, plain old human tends to pale in comparison.

 

 

Perfectly said!

[Ray Finkel]

2 hours ago, Bferra13 said:

But are they not getting open because Allen abandons the pocket too quickly? That's what I see a lot of lately. Or is Allen abandoning the pocket bc they are not getting open. A chicken egg thing goin on here. Prolly a mixture of the two.

He is also not scanning the field like he did a couple of years ago.  It almost seems that sometimes he has a clean pocket and looking to see where the rush is coming from instead of keeping his eyes downfield.  

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

I mean, this is hardly a surprise.  Outside of Diggs which receivers really separate?   I’m almost certain Beane addresses this in R1 this season.  
 

The good news is that Dalton Kincaid does a really good job getting open.  Josh just needs to look his way a bit more than he has.  I think next season is going to be a big year 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

Justin Herbet and Sam Howell must be feeling very sorry for themselves

42 minutes ago, Ray Finkel said:

He is also not scanning the field like he did a couple of years ago.  It almost seems that sometimes he has a clean pocket and looking to see where the rush is coming from instead of keeping his eyes downfield.  

This starts happening when you start losing games.