Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[Einstein]

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

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Edited January 5 by Einstein

[C.Biscuit97]

How in the world do you use this stat without knowing play calls? Or what defense the other team is playing? 
 

and this is a wild thought, but maybe the thought of Lamar running and play action, helps their WRs get open? Nah, it’s probably the superior skills of washed up ACL ODB, always injured Bateman, and can’t catch Nelson. They have one good receiver who may one day be as good as Diggs. Maybe. 
 

I love stats but a lot nerds who never played and have no idea what is actually going on just make up things. Guess how receivers get open easier? String running threat, motion, and play action.  

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

How in the world do you use this stat without knowing play calls? Or what defense the other team is playing? 
 

and this is a wild thought, but maybe the thought of Lamar running and play action, helps their WRs get open? Nah, it’s probably the superior skills of washed up ACL ODB, always injured Bateman, and can’t catch Nelson. They have one good receiver who may one day be as good as Diggs. Maybe. 
 

I love stats but a lot nerds who never played and have no idea what is actually going on just make up things. Guess how receivers get open easier? String running threat, motion, and play action.  

Also wondering what pass defense rankings the Ravens played this year. Know Bills played lots of good defenses this year and great pass defenses.

[Charles Romes]

The chart seems to say we are middle-of-the-pack in separation.  I don’t see where you are getting 27th out of 32 in separation. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The fact that different QBs on the same team with the same WRs see different separation makes the whole thing a bit dubious 

Edited January 5 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[BullBuchanan]

That's not what this chart argues at all lmao.

"The separation score is just the combination of average depth of target and targets per route run."

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-introducing-wide-receiver-efficiency-rating

Edited January 5 by BullBuchanan

[Bferra13]

But are they not getting open because Allen abandons the pocket too quickly? That's what I see a lot of lately. Or is Allen abandoning the pocket bc they are not getting open. A chicken egg thing goin on here. Prolly a mixture of the two.

[Bray Wyatt]

20 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The fact that different QBs on the same team with the same WRs see different superstition makes the whole thing a bit dubious 

 

They played different games

[Mr. WEO]

keep shouting to the rooftops.  you're not onto something

[strive_for_five_guy]

23 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

The chart seems to say we are middle-of-the-pack in separation.  I don’t see where you are getting 27th out of 32 in separation. 

It looks like there’s 26 QBs ahead of Allen, but a lot the QBs in this chart play on the same team.  So you’re right, it’s not accurate to say that our receivers are 27th of 32 teams.

[julian]

I just see lots of fans crying because Allen isn’t lighting up stat sheet, since Brady took over the Bills have become the most run heavy team in the league and cut down significantly on turnovers, and are 5-1 over that stretch.

 

 Coincidence ? Probably not.

[Einstein]

56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

How in the world do you use this stat without knowing play calls? Or what defense the other team is playing? 

 

How do we know if a receiver had separation without knowing the play call?

 

Well, if he has separation…

 

56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

and this is a wild thought, but maybe the thought of Lamar running 

 

Perhaps you mean the threat of him running? but just FYI, this chart excludes receivers who got open on scrambles.

51 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

The chart seems to say we are middle-of-the-pack in separation.  I don’t see where you are getting 27th out of 32 in separation. 

 

Count the players above and below Allen.

There are 26 above him. There are also 5 starters below Allen. The rest are backups and spot players.

Edited January 5 by Einstein

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

What’s the x axis? Is that hundredths of yards? So Baltimore WRs are on average 3/4 inch more open than the bills? 
 

who publishes this nonsense??
 

 

Edited January 5 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

But are they not getting open because Allen abandons the pocket too quickly? That's what I see a lot of lately. Or is Allen abandoning the pocket bc they are not getting open. A chicken egg thing goin on here. Prolly a mixture of the two.

 

That's what Cossell was saying.  

 

He's not sliding within the pocket, he's bailing.  When Allen slides inside the pocket and gives himself a .5 seconds more, I'm not sure there is a better QB.

 

[Einstein]

39 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The fact that different QBs on the same team with the same WRs see different separation makes the whole thing a bit dubious 

 

That actually makes complete sense. Defenses play backup QB’s differently than they play starting QB’s.

 

39 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's not what this chart argues at all lmao.

"The separation score is just the combination of average depth of target and targets per route run."

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-introducing-wide-receiver-efficiency-rating

 

You’re confusing two different metrics. Separation SCORE and average yards of separation. What you linked to was part of the WRER metric (which I believe has been long abandoned) The author was explaining a SCORE for separation within the WRER formula (nearly a decade old). 

 

 

 

[Charles Romes]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

How do we know if a receiver had separation without knowing the play call?

 

Well, if he has separation…

 

 

Perhaps you mean the threat of him running? but just FYI, this chart excludes receivers who got open on scrambles.

 

Count the players above and below Allen.

There are 5 starters below Allen. The rest are backups and spot players.

 

there are 14- 17 QBs below Allen and about 3 got the starting job due to injury, one of these 3 was minchew (I guess a backup or spot player) who has started basically the whole season and is about to lead his team to the playoffs.  The chart only shows the Bills as being middle of back in terms of separation not bottom of the league as suggested by the OP. 

[BullBuchanan]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That actually makes complete sense. Defenses play backup QB’s differently than they play starting QB’s.

 

 

You’re confusing two different metrics. Separation SCORE and average yards of separation. What you linked to was part of the WRER metric (which I believe has been long abandoned) The author was explaining a SCORE for separation within the WRER formula (nearly a decade old). 

 

 

 

If you want to argue yards of separation - as was already tried in a previous post - have you bothered looking at the data on the x-axis? Has anyone determined that there is any statistical significance between 0.01 and 0.03? If they have, do we know what that significance is?

Taking just a single data point like this and trying to draw conclusions from it is a really dangerous thing, because it can be perceived a lot of different ways. For instance - given the separation numbers we could make a conclusion that the Ravens, Giants, Jaguars, Raiders, and Saints have the strongest performing WR groups. That would seem highly unlikely given the personnel on those teams.

Edited January 5 by BullBuchanan

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That actually makes complete sense. Defenses play backup QB’s differently than they play starting QB’s.

 

Oh so it’s indicative of what the defense does more than the WR play. Ahhhh 

[Einstein]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's what Cossell was saying.  

 

He's not sliding within the pocket, he's bailing.  When Allen slides inside the pocket and gives himself a .5 seconds more, I'm not sure there is a better QB.

 

 

I had just listened to that. Cossel said he leaves the pocket prematurely sometimes, but he also said if you want to take that away from him, you’re going to be taking away some of the big jaw-dropping plays he does as well. So you have to find that balance. Because staying in the pocket a half second longer, may mean you HAVE to throw from that pocket, as the escape lanes may be gone after you wait.

[BullBuchanan]

24 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's what Cossell was saying.  

 

He's not sliding within the pocket, he's bailing.  When Allen slides inside the pocket and gives himself a .5 seconds more, I'm not sure there is a better QB.

 

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