Why does this team always seem like it's running on fumes?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good post.

 

Once again this season they gave themselves the tiniest margin for error on offense.  Almost no playmakers and Allen has to do everything.  He lateraled successfully to Shakir on Sunday in a high-risk play; he almost fumbled the game away trying to do it again later (can you imagine the narratives about Allen if the Patriots recovered and scored?).  Beane is a decent GM but his mismanagement of the offense borders on a war crime.

Hey Coach, 

 

Let's go through it. '

 

2019 - Duke Wiliams leads the Bills in targets in the Texans Playoff game. Our Coach is running Frank Gore / Devin Singletary at a 50/50 split. 

 

2020 - Diggs has the best year in Bills history at WR. However, Cole Beasley gets injured against New England, misses the season finale, and the team struggles with the Colts, has the great defensive performance against the Ravens, and could not keep up against prime Kansas City. 

 

2021 - Beasley and Brown are fading as the season goes along, the contributions from them dip. The other critical decision that has permeated the future is - Beane signs Emmanuel Sanders to be the #2 WR. Again, season starts strong, but by Week 7 he's out of gas. Gabe has the big game in Kansas City. We punt on getting another Diggs level WR, and don't try in the draft. 

 

2022 - The fact that Allen squeezes 35 TDs passing out of Diggs, Davis and Isaiah McKenzie is still pretty amazing to me. Knox doesn't take a big step forward. The team has to bring back Cole Beasley and John Brown out of semi-retirement towards the end of the season. This is where Chris Simms really starts harping on the idea that nobody is scared of the Bills weapons. Allen has the UCL that needs to be managed the rest of the year. The bottom of the WR room is useless - Crowder, Kumerow, Shakir isn't used. The take away is Gabe Davis has an alright season, but his results don't extrapolate to the increase in his playing time. 

 

2023 - The longest scoring funk of the current Josh Allen Bills: Jaguars - Giants - New England - Tampa - Bengals - Denver. Diggs last 100-yard game comes on 16 targets against the Giants, Kincaid is still being used as a dump-off only option, Davis' inconsistency getting worse (0.0 or 100 yards). The bottom of the WR group (Harty, Sherfield, Shorter) is remade - and they contribute nothing. The Bills seem to have tried a little of everything on approach: 012 personnel, Diggs peppered with targets, heavy James Cook, Allen not running, now running again, obsession with tunnel screens and bubbles. There is just no consistency with the offense. Allen is at an all-time high in number of interceptions thrown, all his metrics (yards/game, rating, Interception %) all trickling down. The TD production is there because the rushing TDs are double this year, but good chance he ends the year under 30 TD passes. 

 

Add it all up and what is says to me is that we've squeezed all the blood out of this iteration of the stone. Allen as the super weapon, Diggs as the primary WR, the Brian Daboll tree. The word identity gets talked a lot by the National Media because they don't really watch the team. But when I watch this team and Allen this season, I don't know what approach I'm going to get. Maybe that's their trademark, doing whatever they need to do in that given week. But Cook is not going to go off every game, Diggs has disappeared, Kincaid is better than Knox, but we paid Knox so eats at Kincaid's production, Shakir is reliable, but he's not featured, Gabe Davis requires broken coverages to really contribute. 

 

We need more playmakers. Cook and Kincaid are a start, but since 2021 we've had a gigantic hole at WR #2. In this offense there is very little the Bills present in terms of physical mismatches. They don't have a WR that high points the ball, can win contested catches down the field, that really can take the top off the defense. Have to invest in another WR. Josh needs to work harder in the offseason. He's great, but it was clear last year that he didn't work as hard. 

[stuvian]

Good topic. We put out a good effort against playoff teams while letting the hapless Patriots, Broncos and Jets beat us.

[SCBills]

I think this is a somewhat valid statement, but it's too early to say that.

 

The Bills caught fire two years ago and were probably the best team in the league when we got knocked out due to bad coaching and bad luck.

 

Last year, we definitely ran out of gas... physically and mentally.  We're lucky we didn't lose in the Wild Card Round to a backup QB.  

 

This year.. if we lose to Miami and don't make the playoffs or fall short in the playoffs with the offense looking clunky, it will once again seem like last year, where we just ran out of gas down the stretch... but we could also go the opposite way and make a run.

 

TBD

[PonyBoy]

8 hours ago, gobills404 said:

The Bills have lost 1 game by more than 1 score over the last 3 years and 0 games over the last 2 calendar years. If you wanna question coaching and execution late in close games then I’m all ears, but to suggest this team lacks consistent energy or motivation could not be further from the truth. They show up ready to play as often as any other team in the NFL.  

I was going to post something similar to you. The Bills haven't lost by more than 6 points in the past 42 games ( playoffs not included)

It was the Colts BTW. 

[PromoTheRobot]

You aren't going to hang 40 on every team you play. It comes down to how you deal with the pressure of closing games out.

 

How many times did the drought Bills have a lead late against a good team, only to blow it at the end? That's the measure of a great team. Can you pull it out when the other guys are giving you a game?

[zow2]

It's the NFL.  As much as anyone thinks the Bills should dominate weaker teams, every team is tough on any give day.  The Cardinals whooped Philly last weekend in a really important game for the Eagles.  Stuff happens. That's why I am not conceding that the Steelers and Jags will win this weekend. 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

Completely disagree with OP opinion.  Last year . . . spot on; they were mentally exhausted.  The Hamlin 'injury' scared the hell out of everyone and couldn't help but be a distraction; and Cincy took advantage of it.  This year, after the mid-season swoon & bye, they came back focused and have gone 4-0. Soon to be 5-0; then it's a whole new season. Although fans have been on an emotional roller coaster vs. expectations, the Bills have been calm, cool & collected in the face of adversity (injuries, firings, up & down play) and stand poised to win the Division & get the #2 seed.  If that was offered in September - we'd have all signed on!  Go Bills!!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

45 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think this is a somewhat valid statement, but it's too early to say that.

 

The Bills caught fire two years ago and were probably the best team in the league when we got knocked out due to bad coaching and bad luck.

 

Last year, we definitely ran out of gas... physically and mentally.  We're lucky we didn't lose in the Wild Card Round to a backup QB.  

 

This year.. if we lose to Miami and don't make the playoffs or fall short in the playoffs with the offense looking clunky, it will once again seem like last year, where we just ran out of gas down the stretch... but we could also go the opposite way and make a run.

 

TBD

Beane's approach has been to keep as much of the 2020 team together as possible. We've strained the cap to keep everyone we can. We're still using a Daboll system on offense, we've promoted Gabe to #2, we've kept Hyde and Poyer, extended Milano, White, gone back to the well with Lawson, Phillips and so forth.

 

I think the team is stable, a lot of veteran leadership.  

 

However, I think we're seeing that the Bills have squeezed as much blood out of the stone as they're going to get. 

I think a real search for OC and DC is required. The Bills will need DT, DE and Safety, but they need another top-flight WR. I'm not interested in finding the next Cole Beasley. 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

13 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's felt this way the past three seasons. They just always seem mentally exhausted. Tons of games where they have no spark, nothing goes smoothly, players constantly looking beleaguered and embattled...it's weird, right? I can't put my finger on it, but there has been something off mentally with them for a long time.

 

My gut says it's coaching, but the players supposedly like McDermott & Co.

That’s because they are running on fumes…, but those fumes are volatile!!

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Fan in Chicago]

We cannot, absolutely cannot underestimate how much of the offense is dependent on Allen and Diggs. I am (again) postulating that both are dinged up. Allen's shoulder and finger injuries are causing the inaccuracies. His comment on the "ball not feeling right" points to this as well. 

To compound the issue, we don't have quality WR depth behind Diggs. Hence, Brady had reduced Diggs snaps and emphasized the run game to take pressure off of them. This will also allow them to last the full season and post season (when, not should, we get there)

In the meantime, the D is incredible and has picked up the Offense's slack. More than any other season under McD, we are playing the best type of complementary football. 

 

Running on fumes, my a$$

[Brand J]

9 hours ago, Governor said:

Dorsey didn’t throw the ball either.

No he didn’t. There seems to be a common denominator here, doesn’t it? The Dorsey offense averaged almost a full turnover more per game and had less of a commitment to the run game. The Brady offense has taken the ball out of Josh’s hands. Less turnovers, more rushing attempts, both by the QB and RBs. I don’t think either OC is to blame for the pass game execution because both have/had “NFL open” routes, but whether it’s a missed read, a bad ball, a bad drop, or protection issues, they haven’t been able to capitalize. It’s on the players first and foremost, no coordinator has “broken” the pass attack.

[Eastport bills]

13 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's felt this way the past three seasons. They just always seem mentally exhausted. Tons of games where they have no spark, nothing goes smoothly, players constantly looking beleaguered and embattled...it's weird, right? I can't put my finger on it, but there has been something off mentally with them for a long time.

 

My gut says it's coaching, but the players supposedly like McDermott & Co.

You’re looking at a team that has transitioned from an offensive Josh- centric approach to a balanced attack with a vastly improved run game and O-line. With a new OC with different priorities and Sean implementing a more aggressive defense, the team, faced with must win games for a month and a half has found it’s way to the contest that legitimizes our season and makes us the team to beat in the AFC along with Baltimore. Beleaguered is not a team that is on  4 game win streak and is getting healthy and the right time. Beleaguered is not a team that overcomes losing turnover battles 3to0 or Josh out of sorts for a half and making plays when it counts. This is the NFL, what goes smoothly? The Cowboys, Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphin and even the Niners have been up and down. I think your perception comes from the frustration of last year when the team was emotionally spent after Hamlin, the storms, our defense being porous and Josh being responsible for too much. Just enjoy the ride, and enjoy the resilience of a team that never quits.

[TheBillsOrDie]

Because they are old as hell..

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

13 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Did you miss the Cowboys game?

I think if we play the Ravens in the playoffs,the 1st series is Playoff Lennie in the backfield with a FB leading the way.  Put it on their DL early.

[WotAGuy]

Last year was the first time I felt any Bills’ team was spent emotionally and physically. I was too. The Hamlin thing live was troubling and left a scar on me. 
 

This year I think the Bills are just starting to gear up for the important games.  They seem to lose focus in mid-season because they “only” care about the postseason. But when December hits, they go to another level. They are going to go on a tear, I hope!
 

 

[fan_in_tx]

And I would like to believe that Josh has not pushed himself running as he is trying to stay healthy for the playoffs... He was banged up going into the playoffs last year... hopefully Sun we see a preview of playoff Bills team. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

I am praying they truly think Sunday starts the playoffs for them.  5 game season starting Sunday.

[FilthyBeast]

14 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's felt this way the past three seasons. They just always seem mentally exhausted. Tons of games where they have no spark, nothing goes smoothly, players constantly looking beleaguered and embattled...it's weird, right? I can't put my finger on it, but there has been something off mentally with them for a long time.

 

My gut says it's coaching, but the players supposedly like McDermott & Co.

 

The only obvious answer is coaching, because no other excuse flies at this point especially with everything we heard last year (Blizzard, Hamlin, injuries, Tops shooting, Kim Pegula, etc) that allegedly was the reason they 'ran out of gas' and were dominated by the Bengals in the divisional round.

 

This is why I give pause to the idea that even if the Bills beat Miami on SNF and secure the #2 seed they'll magically turn on the proverbial switch and it won't just be a repeat of last year in that they likely struggle to beat whoever the #7 seed is at home, then suffer another blowout loss at home in the divisional.

 

Coaching matters in terms of building real momentum and 2020 is the only time this team was truly rolling heading into the postseason but even then it was a struggle to win at home against the #7 Colts and washed up Phillip Rivers in the opening round. Then a dominant defensive effort against the Ravens in a game Lamar left early with injury, then a lopsided loss in the only AFCCG appearance by McD/Allen in a game essentially over at halftime despite early momentum in the first quarter.

 

Bottom line it's now or never for this regime to deliver especially given the pending roster reset and overhaul in the coming months.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 hours ago, julian said:

Every fan base outside of Baltimore and SF are probably feeling the same way.

 

49ers did lose 3 straight at one point this season.  

[T.E.]

4 hours ago, Simon said:

 

That one was so bizarre, I'm still questioning whether it was really a latent cry for help.

You're right...it's totally normal for a team that has five 20+ point victories (including a couple against the league's best) to lose multiple games to awful teams necause of mental errors. It's also definitely commonplace for the team's best player and MVP candidate to have awful body language and never get into a rhythm for a whole season. Lots of great teams also emotionally no-show a couple of games a month, including a home Divisional round playoff game.