QCity Posted January 4 Posted January 4 5 hours ago, Einstein said: Any given Sunday, yada yada, but it’s looking like Division title or bust. Come on now. No need for extra drama this week. The books say there's a ~60% we clinch playoffs before our coin toss. Quote
dma0034 Posted January 4 Posted January 4 I know it's said every year but the NFL needs to get rid of division winners automatically host a game. Let them automatically get a playoff game but put all teams into rankings 1-7 based on their schedule. Browns and Eagles should not have to go to lesser teams because they won their weak divisons (Eagles suck but still) 1 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 4 Posted January 4 41 minutes ago, newcam2012 said: Ok then just give Pitt and the Jags the wins because they must win. They likely will. Are they both favorites? Quote
Dr.Sack Posted January 4 Posted January 4 If you can’t beat an injury riddled Miami squad in a 50/50 crowd you were never going to beat KC or Baltimore. Go beat the hell out of them. Maul them from start to finish. Leave no doubt we are the more physical team. 2 Quote
SoMAn Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) My take has always been that if they need help from other games they probably aren’t good enough to win it all anyway. If they miss out on the playoffs, the Dolphins can get the first place schedule in 2024 and the Bills will jump several picks in the draft. Hoping they do win and show that they’re championship caliber. I believe they’re good enough. The keys will be not taking stupid drive-killing penalties and executing the way they did in the first matchup. And….don’t let it be so close that it’s decided by the zebras. It will be a miserable off-season if we have to wait through 8 months of ‘what could have been’ if we feel they got robbed of a win because of bad calls. Edited January 4 by SoMAn Quote
Einstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 (edited) 10 hours ago, QCity said: The books say there's a ~60% we clinch playoffs before our coin toss. No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate. Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory. Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory. I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case. . Edited January 4 by Einstein 1 Quote
teef Posted January 4 Posted January 4 10 hours ago, newcam2012 said: Miami has a lot to play for. If they lose I believe they go to Arrowhead to play vs winning and playing at home vs a weaker team. That's a huge difference. Not to mention this division rivals dislike each other. I'm sure the ass whipping Buffalo gave them in week 4 sucked. In short, Miami will be every but motivated and energetic to play. or the opposite. they were just completely dominated by a team that they'll likely have to beat in the playoffs if they want to go to a super bowl. they're very banged up right now, and they have to play a team that typically dominates that year in and year out lately. if bills come in and punch miami in the face early, it could be over early. 1 Quote
newcam2012 Posted January 4 Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, teef said: or the opposite. they were just completely dominated by a team that they'll likely have to beat in the playoffs if they want to go to a super bowl. they're very banged up right now, and they have to play a team that typically dominates that year in and year out lately. if bills come in and punch miami in the face early, it could be over early. Do you think Buffalo dominated Miami last year? Quote
teef Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) 11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said: Do you think Buffalo dominated Miami last year? buffalo has won the last 9 out of 10 games...so yes? edit: and what a strange question. why just bring up last year. it has zero to do with this game, and if you're going to bring up the past, not why not reference mcd and josh's time together against miami Edited January 4 by teef Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted January 4 Posted January 4 14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: At this point I've already 100% accepted the Jags & Steelers are winning easily. So the only players I'm watching are Hill, Waddle, Mostert & Achane. Tua's definitely playing. The Steelers are trash. No game for them is 100% 1 Quote
RiotAct Posted January 4 Posted January 4 1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: The Steelers are trash. No game for them is 100% AND, the Jags haven’t been great recently and T-Law (assuming he plays) is pretty hobbled. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Titans pull that one off and do us another solid. Quote
NeverOutNick Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Einstein said: No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate. Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory. Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory. I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case. . Now I get the name Einstein. Love it 1 Quote
vanislebills44 Posted January 4 Posted January 4 jags 'home' game, jets loss, pats loss, burrows 1 healthy game, allen davis ot philly, 12 men broncos etc etc...all potential wins, n some tuffff losses, any1 of them turns to a dub, yah a moot point....i cried whined bitched moaned n sniveled with the rest of em...doubt steelers n jags lose, possible tho...now JUST WIN, simple... Quote
QCity Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) 2 hours ago, Einstein said: No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate. It is. You have to remove the vig (also Jags -265 is wayyy off as of today). Right now it's 58.9%, a far cry from "bust" Edited January 4 by QCity Quote
WacArnolds Posted January 4 Posted January 4 16 hours ago, newcam2012 said: I'd be shocked if Pitt or the Jags lose. It's possible but I truly think the Ravens may want to lose to try to knock out the dangerous Bills' team. Teams don't actually think like that. It's a divisional rival and the backups have something to prove. Not sure they care about a team they likely feel confident they can beat, that controls their own destiny anyway, getting in. Quote
Success Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Just reading all of the discussion, and I love it. What a fun weekend of football ahead - 4 games at different times, all that have a huge impact on our playoff hopes, and culminating with a final game for all the marbles - division title & a #2 seed. I mean, as a great Bills coach once said...where else would you rather be? That ol' drought is long behind us. Quote
Gregg Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Just now, Success said: Just reading all of the discussion, and I love it. What a fun weekend of football ahead - 4 games at different times, all that have a huge impact on our playoff hopes, and culminating with a final game for all the marbles - division title & a #2 seed. I mean, as a great Bills coach once said...where else would you rather be? That ol' drought is long behind us. I am hoping for a stress-free Sunday. Only the Ravens winning on Saturday can do that. Sunday is a big game no matter what, but I won't be as nervous if I know the Bills have a playoff spot clinched before their game Sunday night. 1 Quote
Dan Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) #2 seed, we would face the #7 team at home. Lose and the best we can hope for is a road game to KC or back in Miami. Then, if we win that, likely on to Baltimore. I think winning this game is extremely huge to our success in the playoffs! Go Bills! Edited January 4 by Dan 1 1 Quote
Einstein Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 (edited) 57 minutes ago, QCity said: It is. You have to remove the vig Removing the vig lowers the Titans probability of pulling the upset (it lowers both teams in relation to the vig). I'll explain this below. 57 minutes ago, QCity said: (also Jags -265 is wayyy off as of today). Right now it's 58.9%, a far cry from "bust" I did have old odds for the games. Taking the updated odds of -190 for the Jags and +155 for the Titans, we have 100 / (155 + 100) = 39.22% the Titans win. You can then double check my formula and math by using an odds/probability calculator The Jags at -190 results in a formula of 190/(190 + 100) = 65.56% To remove the vig, you calculate the combined implied probability (the sum of both team's implied probabilities), which will be more than 100%, and in our case is 104.72. The extra 4.72 is the vig (here is a simplified equation): (100)-65.56+39.22 = 4.72. Then you divide each team's implied probability by this total to adjust for the vig. 65.52%/104.74% and 39.22%/104.74%. Therefore, here are the adjusted probabilities with the vig removed: 62.55% the Jaguars win and 37.45% the Titans win. The Ravens are also +155 now, which means both Ravens and Titans have the same probability at 39.22%. The Steelers sit at -190. Same probabilities and same math, equaling the same result. So we have a 37.45% the Titans win and a 37.45% chance the Ravens win. What you are doing is taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)). It's a fair take. We shall see what happens. . Edited January 4 by Einstein Quote
TheFunPolice Posted January 4 Posted January 4 Huntley should have led Baltimore to a playoff upset win at the Bengals last year, if not for a fumble at the 2 yard line that was returned for a TD. He's going to come to play. The players out there are going to want to win. 2 Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.