Elite QBs Win Super Bowls?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

The amount of luck that goes into winning the big one can’t be underplayed, either. 

[T master]

On 1/3/2024 at 4:54 PM, hondo in seattle said:

We fans believe heart and soul that with Josh Allen we should win at least one Super Bowl.  More than one, really.  When you have a talent like that, unless your coach is an idiot, you ought to be hoisting multiple Lombardis.  Belichick won 6 rings with Brady.  Reid has 2 so far with Mahomes.  We're still waiting for McD to cash in after winning the QB lottery.  

 

The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters.  The entire roster matters.  Let's not make too much out of the QB, they say.  After all, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer.  QBs don't win Super Bowls, teams do.  

 

But here's another angle.  It's not just that a team with a bad/mediocre QB can win the SB.  Teams with good QBs often fail.  

 

My fellow Boilermaker, Drew Brees, played 20 years and only won one.  He was OPOY twice, led the NFL in yards 7 times, and went to 13 Pro Bowls.  If not for Tom Brady and all his rings, Brees would be in the GOAT conversation.  And his Head Coach most of his career was Sean Payton, widely regarded as a coaching wunderkind and offensive genius. 

 

As great as Brees was, the chances of his team winning it all in any given year was a mere 5%.  The average team has a 3% chance (1 in 32) of winning the Super Bowl.  Brees only elevated their probability by 2%.        

 

And Drew was fortunate just to get that one ring.  Dan Marino, one the greatest pure passers I've ever seen, never won a Lombardi despite having Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history, as his HC.  This is a dream duo: HOF coach with HOF QB.  It should have produced an SB victory.  It didn't.  

 

Marino isn't the only great QB shut out.  That unhappy list also includes Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and several others including - sadly - our own Jim Kelly.  

 

The message of history is clear.  It's hard to win the SB with a mediocre QB but not impossible.  It's easier with a great QB but not a guarantee - even with a good coach.  

 

I hate to say this but maybe we need to temper our expectations.  32 teams, 1 Lombardi.  The odds aren't good.  Even with Josh.  

 

 

The message of history a you say is clear it's just that some Bills Mafia members don't care to listen ! It's all the coaches fault fire him and the world will be right again & the Bills will win the Lombardi once and for all ...

 

I hope that some of those HC haters read your post, not that i'm thinking it will change their minds in any way just maybe give a bit more perspective to what has happened in the past to make their outlook as fans a bit more realistic .

 

Thanks for the post !! 

Edited January 5 by T master

[CincyBillsFan]

Eight of the last 9 Super Bowl winning teams have been led by elite QB's including the last 5 in a row (Brady, Stafford & Mahomes).  So things seem to have changed.

 

 

[Heavy Kevi]

5 hours ago, Governor said:

You don’t need an elite QB, but you do need your QB, however good he is, to have an elite playoff run or season.

 

Hurts, a pretty crappy QB, had an elite season and almost won. In a way, he did choke that game away at the end. Eagles offense got stuffed, KC got the punt return, game was over.

 

Brad Johnson, another crappy QB, had an excellent post season and blew out the Raiders in the SB. Didn’t choke.

 

Marino always choked. He was usually the reason why his team lost. Moon and Kelly same thing. All choked at crucial moments.

 

With how well he’s playing, Flacco could definitely get to and win another SB this year. He was at one time viewed as elite. Didn’t choke in his game. Doesn’t have the choke gene.

 

One question left to be answered. 
 

Is Josh a choker or a champion? Does he have the gene?

 

McD is obviously a choker but sometimes a team is good enough to overcome a choking coach. Andy Reid and Wade Philips, two of the biggest chokers of all time, finally had a good enough team to overcome. It is possible.
 

But don’t be mistaken, the gene is still inside of them. There’s no doubt in my mind that Reid would blow it again if you put the game in his hands late. You can’t suppress the gene forever and it always shows itself at the worst times. You can see it on his face. 
 

FEAR

 

 

 

 

 

Great post

 

Every day, more and more people are gripped by fear and it's the biggest obstacle for almost anyone achieving anything notable.

 

I can say with 100% certainty Josh had no fear in his first few years, and did enough to get to the SB jat least once only to have his team (defense and coach) give it away.

 

But fear has an insidious ability to creep into some people's minds over time. I don't think Josh is infected but we haven't seen the killer in awhile.

[Gregg]

Curious to see what fans think of Eli. He was a good QB no doubt. Elite I am not so sure, but he did help take down the evil empire twice on the biggest stage. Of course, it helped that the Giants had a very good defense led by Strahan. If I remember correctly in his first Super Bowl, they had to go the WC route and played their games on the road.

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

100% this. The best teams get in position more often than not but there is so much varience that the deciding factor between which of the 6-8 teams each year with enough talent often come down to more luck than we'd like to admit I think.

 

We like to play a family game called "extreme croquet" that a friend introduced us to.  Croquet calls up images of well-rolled, weeded, and mown lawns.  Extreme croquet is what happens if croquet and Parkour had a Love child and it's just learning to walk.  Our dog is often with us on these family outings and likes to chase the croquet balls and pick them up, run around a bit, then drop them.  She is officially known as "The Course Hazard" and if she picks up and moves your ball, you have to play it where it lies for good or bad (it's permitted to try to wheedle her).  It's not allowed to complain about what she does - she's The Course Hazard.

 

Unfortunately, I feel like NFL football these days has a Course Hazard called "the referees" which inserts the same random element of advantage or disadvantage that our dog adds to Extreme Croquet.  I can't exactly call the refs "luck" since they are sentient beings with freedom of action.  But they definitely can become a deciding factor in games, and this seems amplified in single elimination playoffs when Everything is on the line.

 

 

1 hour ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

Great post

 

Every day, more and more people are gripped by fear and it's the biggest obstacle for almost anyone achieving anything notable.

 

I can say with 100% certainty Josh had no fear in his first few years, and did enough to get to the SB jat least once only to have his team (defense and coach) give it away.

 

But fear has an insidious ability to creep into some people's minds over time. I don't think Josh is infected but we haven't seen the killer in awhile.

 

I think we saw the killer just last week.  The guy who will do anything to win, crazy stuff like that lateral to Shakir.

Edited January 4 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

We fans believe heart and soul that with Josh Allen we should win at least one Super Bowl.  More than one, really.  When you have a talent like that, unless your coach is an idiot, you ought to be hoisting multiple Lombardis.  Belichick won 6 rings with Brady.  Reid has 2 so far with Mahomes.  We're still waiting for McD to cash in after winning the QB lottery.  

 

The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters.  The entire roster matters.  Let's not make too much out of the QB, they say.  After all, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer.  QBs don't win Super Bowls, teams do.  

 

But here's another angle.  It's not just that a team with a bad/mediocre QB can win the SB.  Teams with good QBs often fail.  

 

My fellow Boilermaker, Drew Brees, played 20 years and only won one.  He was OPOY twice, led the NFL in yards 7 times, and went to 13 Pro Bowls.  If not for Tom Brady and all his rings, Brees would be in the GOAT conversation.  And his Head Coach most of his career was Sean Payton, widely regarded as a coaching wunderkind and offensive genius. 

 

As great as Brees was, the chances of his team winning it all in any given year was a mere 5%.  The average team has a 3% chance (1 in 32) of winning the Super Bowl.  Brees only elevated their probability by 2%.        

 

And Drew was fortunate just to get that one ring.  Dan Marino, one the greatest pure passers I've ever seen, never won a Lombardi despite having Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history, as his HC.  This is a dream duo: HOF coach with HOF QB.  It should have produced an SB victory.  It didn't.  

 

Marino isn't the only great QB shut out.  That unhappy list also includes Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and several others including - sadly - our own Jim Kelly.  

 

The message of history is clear.  It's hard to win the SB with a mediocre QB but not impossible.  It's easier with a great QB but not a guarantee - even with a good coach.  

 

I hate to say this but maybe we need to temper our expectations.  32 teams, 1 Lombardi.  The odds aren't good.  Even with Josh.  

 

 

If you're including QB with one ring: don't overlook Aaron Rodgers.  In his most recent conference championship with Green Bay, Tom Brady threw 3 picks.  Rodgers outperformed him in every way: more passing yards, same # of TD, fewer turnovers, more first downs, more TOP.  But his team scored fewer points.  Rodgers had 5 conference championship appearances in his 18 year GB career, and only one Superbowl appearance (a win).  And yet he had 10 probowl nominations (including back when they meant something) and 4 league MVP awards.

 

Then there's Payton Manning.  13 years in Indy, 3 conference championships, 2 Superbowl appearances, 1 ring won 9 years in.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Eight of the last 9 Super Bowl winning teams have been led by elite QB's including the last 5 in a row (Brady, Stafford & Mahomes).  So things seem to have changed.

 

A little bit of the Devil's Advocate here.  While Brady was, in his prime, unquestionably an Elite of Elites as a QB, was Brady really elite in that Superbowl he won?

-in the NFCCG, he threw 3 interceptions. 

-his completion % in the playoffs were 55, 55, 56 and 72% in the Superbowl

-threw for less than 200 net yards in the Superbowl

The real hero of that SB IMHO was Tampa Bay's defense, which picked Mahomes twice, forced a fumble (they didn't recover), held tight coverage, and harried, harrassed, and bothered Mahomes all day long.  The QB we saw for Tampa wasn't quite "the ghost of Tom Brady" but you could see his ghost from there.

 

Similar with Stafford.  Stafford had a 12 year career on a bad team where he was often way up the leaderboard for passing yards, but was regarded as a great passer who would make key gaffs at bad times.  He didn't have a history of probowls or NFL MVPs.  1 PB I think.  And indeed, in his Superbowl year with the Rams, he led the league with 17 interceptions.   In the Superbowl, he threw 2 INTs and had kind of a "meh" passer rating of 89.9.  Burrow was 100.9.  The Rams defense sacked Burrow 7 times and hit him 11 times, such that even though Burrow had statistically a much better day and Higgins and Chase both "went off", they couldn't sustain enough drives.  I kind of see that Rams win as in part overcoming Stafford's gaffs instead of led by elite QB play from Stafford.

 

Just my opinion.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

23 hours ago, Governor said:

You don’t need an elite QB, but you do need your QB, however good he is, to have an elite playoff run or season.

 

Hurts, a pretty crappy QB, had an elite season and almost won. In a way, he did choke that game away at the end. Eagles offense got stuffed, KC got the punt return, game was over.

 

Brad Johnson, another crappy QB, had an excellent post season and blew out the Raiders in the SB. Didn’t choke.

 

Marino always choked. He was usually the reason why his team lost. Moon and Kelly same thing. All choked at crucial moments.

 

With how well he’s playing, Flacco could definitely get to and win another SB this year. He was at one time viewed as elite. Didn’t choke in his game. Doesn’t have the choke gene.

 

One question left to be answered. 
 

Is Josh a choker or a champion? Does he have the gene?

 

McD is obviously a choker but sometimes a team is good enough to overcome a choking coach. Andy Reid and Wade Philips, two of the biggest chokers of all time, finally had a good enough team to overcome. It is possible.
 

But don’t be mistaken, the gene is still inside of them. There’s no doubt in my mind that Reid would blow it again if you put the game in his hands late. You can’t suppress the gene forever and it always shows itself at the worst times. You can see it on his face. 
 

FEAR

 

 

 

 

They’re kind of all chokers by definition outside of belichick lol winning a superbowl is nearly impossible even if you are the outright best team on paper. Look at John Harbaugh…16 years head coaching the ravens, one superbowl win 10 years ago, 2x mvp qb since and early playoff exits for like 10 years since.  Will he win this year?  Even as the best team in the afc the odds are very low 

 

look at Kyle Shanahan.  Great regular season performances for years but blew that falcons superbowl as OC and blew the niners Super Bowl against KC

 

look at McCarthy…1 Super Bowl win but has ‘choked’ constantly since.  

look at Andy Reid…sure he’s found some success now but it’s only after a previous franchise completely gave up on him for not being able to win a big game.  2 Super Bowl wins in 25 years and didn’t get his first until his 21st season 

 

look at Mike Tomlin…one superbowl win 15 years ago and now he’s praised for just going around .500 for whatever reason 

 

Pete Carroll…1 Super Bowl in 14 years.  Choked hard against NE in his second superbowl and is barely relevant now 

 

LaFleur…LaChoker with one of the best statistical qbs of all time

 

Todd Bowles has one Super Bowl in a fairly short coaching career but he was carried by Brady and no history of success with anybody else 

Doug Pederson…one superbowl win then fired now pretty average at best 

 

McDaniel…too early to tell but his team rarely shows up against a good opponent and the dolphins are firmly in win now territory so it’s doubtful he produces any championships

 

the rest of the field is a bunch of young-ish guys that it’s too early to tell on and mcvay who deserves a lot of credit imo his front office completely sold out for that superbowl and I thought they’d be non competitive for years 

I can understand the reasons for thinking mcd can’t win it but under that same microscope, what coach in the league can? by the ‘fire mcd’ standards I feel like 30 coaches would be fired 😂

Edited January 5 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[FilthyBeast]

I think in this day and age it's all about elite QB play especially if you look at the last 5 SB winners (Chiefs x 2, Bucs, Rams, Patriots...Mahomes and Brady accounting for 4 of those).

 

But they certainly didn't do it alone, all those teams were complimented by strong defense and ST play in most cases.

 

Relevant to the Bills though, I just don't see a scenario where this team can get to (and win) a SB without JA17 resembling the guy we saw in the 2021 playoffs...or something close to it anyway.

[Breakout Squad]

I’ve resigned myself to believe the Bills will never win a Super Bowl. 
 

X-Files said it and I believe it. Do you believe in miracles?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

I think in this day and age it's all about elite QB play especially if you look at the last 5 SB winners (Chiefs x 2, Bucs, Rams, Patriots...Mahomes and Brady accounting for 4 of those).

 

But they certainly didn't do it alone, all those teams were complimented by strong defense and ST play in most cases.

 

Relevant to the Bills though, I just don't see a scenario where this team can get to (and win) a SB without JA17 resembling the guy we saw in the 2021 playoffs...or something close to it anyway.

The league feels like it took a big swing back in the defense’s direction to me this year... I’m not sure how relevant past superbowl winners are gonna be.  I don’t think we’ve really seen any qbs play at the josh Allen 2021 playoff level at all this season.  Seems to be making people think the bills are worse than they are.  When you look at just buffalo yea the offense sputters at times but that’s happening to a lot of the good teams this year 

 

The defense being riddled with injuries between the jax game and the broncos game is as big or arguably bigger of a contributing factor to the shape we’re in record wise than the offensive concerns.  When Rasul got acclimated the defense got a lot better and we started winning.

 

you can look at the qbs that have won but look at the defenses too, it’s almost always a top 10 defense that gets it done  

Edited January 4 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Danger Mouse]

While the OP is correct, you simply cannot deny that most of the great QBs do win superbowls. There are outliers but generally they are just that: outliers. 

 

 

 

Edited January 4 by Bill Grundy

[MJS]

It's true. A lot of things have to go your way to win the superbowl, and that is after you have already built a team capable of doing it. That is the nature of single elimination tournaments, which is what the playoffs are. A bad bounce and you are going home. One, single play can end your season.

 

But that is also what makes it exciting. Any team can get hot and go get it done.

[HardyBoy]

16 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The entire roster does not matter. There are 10-15 guys at any given time that can be replaced by street free agents. 

Kyle Allen would not win 4 games with this roster.

Make no mistake if not for Allen, Beane and McDermott would have been gone two years ago.

 

 

This is a bad take... without allen, they would have a ton more cap space and the rest of the roster would be significantly better. 

Edited January 4 by HardyBoy

[HappyDays]

Fair to say that luck is involved in winning a Super Bowl. But with better coaching and/or roster management we would have at least come close to a Super Bowl win in three years of elite QB play. One blowout loss in the AFCCG is not close. I will consider the floor of success this year to be a close loss in the AFCCG without a dumb coaching error at the end that causes the loss. Getting to that point just once in four years is not a matter of luck.

[BillsVet]

8 hours ago, Governor said:

You don’t need an elite QB, but you do need your QB, however good he is, to have an elite playoff run or season.

 

Hurts, a pretty crappy QB, had an elite season and almost won. In a way, he did choke that game away at the end. Eagles offense got stuffed, KC got the punt return, game was over.

 

Every time subjects like this are brought up, they're presented as some sort of binary issue.  As in, you do or don't need an elite QB.  

 

You need an elite one who is surrounded by excellent talent...especially in the playoffs.   

 

The Eagles with Jalen Hurts lost in the SB to the team with a better QB AND offense last year.  Brock Purdy comes to mind this year, a competent QB with top-end skilled talent and solid blocking.  That will take you far, but in the 2023 NFL, it's no SB guarantee.  See the 2019 San Francisco 49ers...perhaps the league's best defense that gave up 21 straight points in the 2nd half to an elite offense and lost that SB. 

 

That said, Buffalo seems to have had a plan for this franchise in 2017-18 that is largely the same today.  They succeeded in acquiring the QB, but still want to feature an elite defense as though that will carry them.  It might for some games in the regular season, but come playoff time it's victimized.  

 

They finally add a legit WR2 and WR3 who are threats and this team can go places.  Of course, that'll mean not having everything on defense, but it's a net gain.  I doubt they'll ever begin favoring the offense though.  Perhaps the Bills start getting it right, but they need a course correction with where this franchise is going.     

[HardyBoy]

56 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

 

This is a bad take... without allen, they would have a ton more cap space and the rest of the roster would be significantly better. 

 

This is a bad take... without allen, they would have a ton more cap space and the rest of the roster would be significantly better. 

 

This is a bad take... without allen, they would have a ton more cap space and the rest of the roster would be significantly better. 

 

This is a bad take... without allen, they would have a ton more cap space and the rest of the roster would be significantly better. 

 

Omg, why did it post like 5 times?! Gonna edit this quick, not my intention

[TheFunPolice]

19 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

"Volume cures variance" is a maxim from the poker world.  Basically, the more iterations of something you run, the less aberrant the results.  16-17 game regular seasons followed by single elimination playoffs in a sport where each side gets to possess the ball like a dozen times is EXTREMELY high variance and you can't get to the end of the season and simply conclude that the best team/best coach/best QB won.  Write all the narratives you want, a lot of it is luck.

 

Compare this to basketball.  82 game season to determine seeding.  7 game series.  About 100 possessions of the ball per side.  Upsets are comparatively rare and you can generally trust that the best team won.  So when that's the case it's only natural that dominant players like Jordan, Lebron and Shaq end up with handfuls of championship rings.  It would be more surprising if they didn't.  

 

 

 

THANK YOU!

 

This makes such a difference in football, and creates narratives about guys and legacies. 

 

In your 10 possessions, you get

 

1. 1 drop on 3rd down when the ball is perfectly placed. Ends the drive.

2. 1 ball that hits a WR right in the chest, bounces up in the air, and simply by luck and chance a defender is a) there to catch it and b) actually does catch it

3. A holding call that wipes out a 1st down run and makes it 3rd and 20 instead of 1st and 10 

4. a muffed punt that gives the other team the ball in the red zone

 

Those 4 things could = a loss and every one of them is out of the QBs control.

 

It's why almost every big comeback in the NFL is aided by the other team turning the ball over. Without that there's just not enough time/possessions to come back from 17+ points. 

Edited January 4 by TheFunPolice

[corta765]

This is a good post and I will add one thing.

 

The playoffs and going on runs use to be much harder pre wildcard expansion to 6 teams or especially now with 7. Many of your best QBs until expansion in 1990 had years they missed and had a good to great season as a team and didn't even make the dance. Winning your division was truly paramount if you wanted a guaranteed shot to make it. The additional error allows for a bit more of an up and down type season and favors elite QBs as if they can get in the sky is the limit. Brady 2020 and Rodgers 2010 both showed that and truthfully I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few decades more wildcard winners happen as any elite QB who gets in will have a shot.