hondo in seattle Posted January 3 Posted January 3 We fans believe heart and soul that with Josh Allen we should win at least one Super Bowl. More than one, really. When you have a talent like that, unless your coach is an idiot, you ought to be hoisting multiple Lombardis. Belichick won 6 rings with Brady. Reid has 2 so far with Mahomes. We're still waiting for McD to cash in after winning the QB lottery. The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters. The entire roster matters. Let's not make too much out of the QB, they say. After all, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. QBs don't win Super Bowls, teams do. But here's another angle. It's not just that a team with a bad/mediocre QB can win the SB. Teams with good QBs often fail. My fellow Boilermaker, Drew Brees, played 20 years and only won one. He was OPOY twice, led the NFL in yards 7 times, and went to 13 Pro Bowls. If not for Tom Brady and all his rings, Brees would be in the GOAT conversation. And his Head Coach most of his career was Sean Payton, widely regarded as a coaching wunderkind and offensive genius. As great as Brees was, the chances of his team winning it all in any given year was a mere 5%. The average team has a 3% chance (1 in 32) of winning the Super Bowl. Brees only elevated their probability by 2%. And Drew was fortunate just to get that one ring. Dan Marino, one the greatest pure passers I've ever seen, never won a Lombardi despite having Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history, as his HC. This is a dream duo: HOF coach with HOF QB. It should have produced an SB victory. It didn't. Marino isn't the only great QB shut out. That unhappy list also includes Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and several others including - sadly - our own Jim Kelly. The message of history is clear. It's hard to win the SB with a mediocre QB but not impossible. It's easier with a great QB but not a guarantee - even with a good coach. I hate to say this but maybe we need to temper our expectations. 32 teams, 1 Lombardi. The odds aren't good. Even with Josh. 3 5 3 Quote
Aussie Joe Posted January 3 Posted January 3 I think this fan base knows more than most that winning Championships is not a given 4 2 3 Quote
K-9 Posted January 3 Posted January 3 The vast, VAST majority of players never win SBs, so it’s no surprise that the vast, VAST majority of QBs wouldn’t, either. Same goes for coaches, great or not. 2 Quote
Don Otreply Posted January 3 Posted January 3 The teams that execute game plans the best, with coaches that adjust the game plan the best as needed are the ones who win championships, add in some luck and Bobs your uncle… 1 1 Quote
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted January 3 Posted January 3 "Volume cures variance" is a maxim from the poker world. Basically, the more iterations of something you run, the less aberrant the results. 16-17 game regular seasons followed by single elimination playoffs in a sport where each side gets to possess the ball like a dozen times is EXTREMELY high variance and you can't get to the end of the season and simply conclude that the best team/best coach/best QB won. Write all the narratives you want, a lot of it is luck. Compare this to basketball. 82 game season to determine seeding. 7 game series. About 100 possessions of the ball per side. Upsets are comparatively rare and you can generally trust that the best team won. So when that's the case it's only natural that dominant players like Jordan, Lebron and Shaq end up with handfuls of championship rings. It would be more surprising if they didn't. 8 7 6 3 Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 3 Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: "Volume cures variance" is a maxim from the poker world. Basically, the more iterations of something you run, the less aberrant the results. 16-17 game regular seasons followed by single elimination playoffs in a sport where each side gets to possess the ball like a dozen times is EXTREMELY high variance and you can't get to the end of the season and simply conclude that the best team/best coach/best QB won. Write all the narratives you want, a lot of it is luck. 100% this. The best teams get in position more often than not but there is so much varience that the deciding factor between which of the 6-8 teams each year with enough talent often come down to more luck than we'd like to admit I think. 3 8 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 Our problem is we have a HC who isnt going to get us there with his approach and neglecting weapons for his QB. 1 2 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted January 3 Author Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: The teams that execute game plans the best, with coaches that adjust the game plan the best as needed are the ones who win championships, add in some luck and Bobs your uncle… Luck shouldn't be underestimated. Sometimes games are decided by lucky deflections, bad referee calls, etc. And then there are injuries. Sometimes excellent teams enter the playoffs missing multiple key players while other players are playing with bandages and painkillers. And then loses to a lesser team that happens to be comparatively healthy. 2 1 Quote
Bills!Win! Posted January 3 Posted January 3 It takes either a great QB or an all time great defense 2 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted January 4 Posted January 4 https://fanbuzz.com/nfl/worst-super-bowl-quarterbacks/ Life isn't fair. Dan Marino should definitely had won at least 1 SB. Sometimes you need luck and maybe a little love from the refs. Alot of time you have to pray your HC (Levy) doesn't get schooled by his counterparts. Or that your players aren't partying the night before. Sometimes you expect your elite superstar qb to just take over. Sometimes you need your defense to dominate. Above is a pretty accurate list of some historically bad qbs to win a Lombardi. On paper Josh more than qualifies to be "great enough" to hoist the 🏆. But will the gods allow the other necessary stuff to happen? Life's not fair.... 1 Quote
Ethan in Cleveland Posted January 4 Posted January 4 The entire roster does not matter. There are 10-15 guys at any given time that can be replaced by street free agents. Kyle Allen would not win 4 games with this roster. Make no mistake if not for Allen, Beane and McDermott would have been gone two years ago. 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted January 4 Author Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: https://fanbuzz.com/nfl/worst-super-bowl-quarterbacks/ Life isn't fair. Dan Marino should definitely had won at least 1 SB. Sometimes you need luck and maybe a little love from the refs. Alot of time you have to pray your HC (Levy) doesn't get schooled by his counterparts. Or that your players aren't partying the night before. Sometimes you expect your elite superstar qb to just take over. Sometimes you need your defense to dominate. Above is a pretty accurate list of some historically bad qbs to win a Lombardi. On paper Josh more than qualifies to be "great enough" to hoist the 🏆. But will the gods allow the other necessary stuff to happen? Life's not fair.... An interesting list. I know some Raiders fans who would disagree with Stabler’s inclusion. But the Snake was no Joe Montana. Quote
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 4 Posted January 4 1 hour ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: "Volume cures variance" is a maxim from the poker world. Basically, the more iterations of something you run, the less aberrant the results. 16-17 game regular seasons followed by single elimination playoffs in a sport where each side gets to possess the ball like a dozen times is EXTREMELY high variance and you can't get to the end of the season and simply conclude that the best team/best coach/best QB won. Write all the narratives you want, a lot of it is luck. Compare this to basketball. 82 game season to determine seeding. 7 game series. About 100 possessions of the ball per side. Upsets are comparatively rare and you can generally trust that the best team won. So when that's the case it's only natural that dominant players like Jordan, Lebron and Shaq end up with handfuls of championship rings. It would be more surprising if they didn't. Agreed. just look at those patriots SB runs. Good team and great QB. But alme real fluke plays. Tuck rule play should have ended the game. In another SB run, the chargers intercept the 4th down pass to end the game and the defensive player fumbles it, and the pats recover and go onto score. you have to be lucky, good, and execute at a super high level. 3 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted January 4 Posted January 4 22 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: An interesting list. I know some Raiders fans who would disagree with Stabler’s inclusion. But the Snake was no Joe Montana. You are what the stats say you are. Terry Bradshaw won 4 championships yet he threw as many INT's as TD 's in his career. Go figure. You need alot to go right to win a SB. But Ethan is right...McB would both be long gone if not for Allen. And God willing if we do get to SB soon, we're going to ask so much more than we should from Josh. Quote
PatsFanNH Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: We fans believe heart and soul that with Josh Allen we should win at least one Super Bowl. More than one, really. When you have a talent like that, unless your coach is an idiot, you ought to be hoisting multiple Lombardis. Belichick won 6 rings with Brady. Reid has 2 so far with Mahomes. We're still waiting for McD to cash in after winning the QB lottery. The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters. The entire roster matters. Let's not make too much out of the QB, they say. After all, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. QBs don't win Super Bowls, teams do. But here's another angle. It's not just that a team with a bad/mediocre QB can win the SB. Teams with good QBs often fail. My fellow Boilermaker, Drew Brees, played 20 years and only won one. He was OPOY twice, led the NFL in yards 7 times, and went to 13 Pro Bowls. If not for Tom Brady and all his rings, Brees would be in the GOAT conversation. And his Head Coach most of his career was Sean Payton, widely regarded as a coaching wunderkind and offensive genius. As great as Brees was, the chances of his team winning it all in any given year was a mere 5%. The average team has a 3% chance (1 in 32) of winning the Super Bowl. Brees only elevated their probability by 2%. And Drew was fortunate just to get that one ring. Dan Marino, one the greatest pure passers I've ever seen, never won a Lombardi despite having Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history, as his HC. This is a dream duo: HOF coach with HOF QB. It should have produced an SB victory. It didn't. Marino isn't the only great QB shut out. That unhappy list also includes Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and several others including - sadly - our own Jim Kelly. The message of history is clear. It's hard to win the SB with a mediocre QB but not impossible. It's easier with a great QB but not a guarantee - even with a good coach. I hate to say this but maybe we need to temper our expectations. 32 teams, 1 Lombardi. The odds aren't good. Even with Josh. Ok Brees also had the misfortune to be playing when P Manning, Big Ben, and Brady were also around.. that’s 11 SB right there! Add in Eli who had some sort of rabbit foot up his butt and he won 2. Right now the best QBs in the NFL: Mahomes - Best in the league right now. down year for him and the team. Burrow — on IR and his team is eliminated from the playoffs I think. Jackson — Best team in AFC right now. Hurt — a one year wonder.. Purdy — My favorite just because he is Mr Irrelevant and making noise 2 years in a row.. but let’s be honest this is Deebo and CMC offense and a defense that is killer. My point is outside of Mahomes (on this list) not one of these guys can carry the HOF I mentioned so Yes Allen should get to at least 1 or 2 SB. That does not mean he will win it because that’s a full team effort to do. 1 Quote
section122 Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 100% this. The best teams get in position more often than not but there is so much varience that the deciding factor between which of the 6-8 teams each year with enough talent often come down to more luck than we'd like to admit I think. There is so much luck involved with winning a sb. Having a great qb helps but isn't the guarantee so many want it to be. Chiefs get a ticky tack call to ice the game last year. After they got a ticky tack call in the afc championship game to even get there. 2 years before that the Bucs got to play the chiefs missing their 2 ots. Nick Foles catching lightning in a bottle. The seahawks not running beast mode from the 1 yard line. Denver bad snap on the first play leading to a seattle route. Baltimore getting beat up before the power went out. These are all just the super bowl games and just the last 11 years. I didn't even include any of the games along the way with lucky breaks, favorable calls, or other funny bounces of an oddly shaped ball. 2 Quote
stuvian Posted January 4 Posted January 4 we should remember this thread if the Browns get there and win with Flacco. Then we can discuss whether he is an elite QB. Jim Plunkett won two SBs and has not entered the HOF. It may be football sacrilege to say it but I think Shula is a failure for not winning with Marino. I think he was still calling the personnel shots in Miami when Jimmy Johnson became coach. Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 4 Posted January 4 6 hours ago, section122 said: There is so much luck involved with winning a sb. Having a great qb helps but isn't the guarantee so many want it to be. Chiefs get a ticky tack call to ice the game last year. After they got a ticky tack call in the afc championship game to even get there. 2 years before that the Bucs got to play the chiefs missing their 2 ots. Nick Foles catching lightning in a bottle. The seahawks not running beast mode from the 1 yard line. Denver bad snap on the first play leading to a seattle route. Baltimore getting beat up before the power went out. These are all just the super bowl games and just the last 11 years. I didn't even include any of the games along the way with lucky breaks, favorable calls, or other funny bounces of an oddly shaped ball. Baltimore was the other way round. They beat the 9ers up before the power went out. When it came back on the 9ers started to come back but that was heading for a blow out until Beyonce tripped the lights. Quote
Governor Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) You don’t need an elite QB, but you do need your QB, however good he is, to have an elite playoff run or season. Hurts, a pretty crappy QB, had an elite season and almost won. In a way, he did choke that game away at the end. Eagles offense got stuffed, KC got the punt return, game was over. Brad Johnson, another crappy QB, had an excellent post season and blew out the Raiders in the SB. Didn’t choke. Marino always choked. He was usually the reason why his team lost. Moon and Kelly same thing. All choked at crucial moments. With how well he’s playing, Flacco could definitely get to and win another SB this year. He was at one time viewed as elite. Didn’t choke in his game. Doesn’t have the choke gene. One question left to be answered. Is Josh a choker or a champion? Does he have the gene? McD is obviously a choker but sometimes a team is good enough to overcome a choking coach. Andy Reid and Wade Philips, two of the biggest chokers of all time, finally had a good enough team to overcome. It is possible. But don’t be mistaken, the gene is still inside of them. There’s no doubt in my mind that Reid would blow it again if you put the game in his hands late. You can’t suppress the gene forever and it always shows itself at the worst times. You can see it on his face. FEAR Edited January 4 by Governor 1 Quote
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