Kincaid Comparisons

[folz]

I don't completely disagree with your premise, I think we all hoped for a little more consistent (or splashy) production from Kincaid across this season (again, that's not on Kincaid, but more about his number of opportunities).

 

BUT, as others have said, it seems like a strange thing to be complaining/worrying about right now.

 

First of all, he is a rookie, and you are comparing him to the best in the league currently, such as George Kittle. Let's look at George Kittle's and some other TE's rookie stats in comparison---the current 5 best TEs in the league their rookie years.

 

Kincaid: 66 rec. 83 targets. 589 yards. 2 TDs

               70 rec. 88 targets. 626 yards. 2 TDs (Kincaid's stats prorated to 17 games)

Kittle:     43 rec. 63 targets. 515 yards. 2 TDs

Kelce: only played in one game as a rookie. 2nd year stats below:

               67 rec. 87 targets. 862 yards. 5 TDs

Andrews: 34 rec. 50 targets. 552 yards. 3 TDs

Waller: 2 rec. 6 targets. 18 yards. 1 TD

Goedert: 33 rec. 44 targets. 334 yards. 4 TDs.

 

Plus, I'm not sure what all of the other player's situations were their rookie years, but Kincaid was coming to a team that already had an established TE (though he missed 5 games this year), lots of other weapons (Diggs, Davis, Cook, Knox, Shakir, etc.), and an offensive coordinator that was in over his head and then fired mid-season. Yes, LaPorta is having a great rookie season, but he also has 47 more targets on the year than Kincaid. If Kincaid had 47 more targets, his yards would prorate to 803 yards (LaPorta has 860 yards). He does have 7 more TDs than Kincaid, but he is obviously more of a target in the red zone as Detroit doesn't have a lot of production behind St. Brown. So, could Kincaid have been targeted more or differently at times, sure, but I don't see it as an issue of any kind right now, especially after a week where he had a 51-yard reception and a stat line of 4 for 87 yards.

 

Kincaid is fine. Kincaid was a good pick. He will develop and how they use him will develop as the relationship grows. Nothing to see here.

[Teddy KGB]

Tim Euhus 

[<bills4life>]

Greg Olsen like player and career

[Buffalo03]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:12 PM, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

It's the offense Kincaid is in. We don't really utilize him properly as of yet and Knox eats into that as well

[Big Turk]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:26 PM, KDIGGZ said:

Should we revisit the TE stats thread where a good number of you said he was going to have 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD's? Nobody drafts a TE high in the first round because they don't provide bang for your buck. It's not a position of value. A good rookie TE season was always going to be roughly what Kincaid has given us which is nothing to write home about compared to a great #2 receiver (Flowers, Nacua).

 

C'mon man...Nacua is going to break the rookie record for receptions and yards of he gets 4 catches and 29 yards this week.

 

Let's not act like this is an every year thing where a WR puts up numbers like that as a rookie. It's literally never happened in the history of the NFL.

[Jay_Fixit]

I used to have KincHiv but now it’s full on Kincaids.

 

Hes a stud.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

C'mon man...Nacua is going to break the rookie record for receptions and yards of he gets 4 catches and 29 yards this week.

 

Let's not act like this is an every year thing where a WR puts up numbers like that as a rookie. It's literally never happened in the history of the NFL.

 

I think if they get into the playoffs Nacua will destroy the Cowboys secondary.

[Donuts and Doritos]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:12 PM, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

 

The entire passing offense has been off. Allen & Diggs stats aren't good over the last 5 games. This is a way bigger issue than Kincaid. He's shown how good he can be, but Joe Brady, Josh & the rest of the offense have to figure it out & get out of this slump. If/when that happens you'll see what a good pick up he was. Until then he'll be criticized & doubted like Ed Oliver, Epeneza, Josh, or Cook were early on in their careers.

[BobbyC81]

On 1/3/2024 at 11:21 AM, Rubes said:

If all Kincaid got were "easy" catches without much YAC that kept getting us first downs, I'd be pretty happy.

 

Anything above that is gravy.

 

One thing I noticed and didn’t like was his routes were short and on 3rd downs it seemed he WAS expected to pick up the YAC to get the first down.  As OP mentioned, that was dumb.

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 1/3/2024 at 4:50 PM, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That has been my single biggest gripe with Joe Brady. For all of the faults that (rightfully) had Dorsey exit, he had finally started to use Kincaid as part of the gameplan and Brady...really hasn't. Even when it would seem that the moment is perfect for it, like vs the Pats.

 

The Dolphins are beat up on their inside LBs and Ramsey is going to be shadowing Diggs. This is the perfect time to use motion to move the Dolphins CBs and then use Kincaid to exploit mismatches. 

 

Reallllly hope we see something like that.

Knox has been back since Brady took over and Kincaid had one of his better games against Patriots.

[Rigotz]

Here's an idea...

 

How about comparing Dalton Kincaid to other Rookie Tight Ends, as it's one of the slowest developing positions.

 

Dalton Kincaid:

66 Receptions, 589 yards, 2 TD

 

Travis Kelce (didn't play rookie season):

2nd year -- 67 receptions, 862 yards, 5 TD

 

George Kittle Rookie:

43 receptions, 515 yards, 2 TD

 

Mark Andrews Rookie:

34 Receptions, 552 yards, 3 TD

 

TJ Hockenson Rookie:

32 Receptions, 367 yards, 2 TD

 

David Njoku Rookie:

32 Receptions, 386 yards, 4TD

 

Zach Ertz Rookie:

36 Receptions, 469 yards, 4TD

 

Jason Witten Rookie:

35 Receptions, 347 yards, 1TD

 

Antonio Gates Rookie:

24 Receptions, 389 yards, 2TD

 

 

 

Edited January 5 by Rigotz

[Dopey]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:34 PM, Special K said:

Seems like you put in a lot of time and effort to find something to complain about that really didn't need to be complained about.......why??

Mob mentality on TBD, maybe?

36 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Here's an idea...

 

How about comparing Dalton Kincaid to other Rookie Tight Ends, as it's one of the slowest developing positions.

 

Dalton Kincaid:

66 Receptions, 589 yards, 2 TD

 

Travis Kelce (didn't play rookie season):

2nd year -- 67 receptions, 862 yards, 5 TD

 

George Kittle Rookie:

43 receptions, 515 yards, 2 TD

 

Mark Andrews Rookie:

34 Receptions, 552 yards, 3 TD

 

TJ Hockenson Rookie:

32 Receptions, 367 yards, 2 TD

 

David Njoku Rookie:

32 Receptions, 386 yards, 4TD

 

Zach Ertz Rookie:

36 Receptions, 469 yards, 4TD

 

Jason Witten Rookie:

35 Receptions, 347 yards, 1TD

 

Antonio Gates Rookie:

24 Receptions, 389 yards, 2TD

 

 

 

Thanks for the perspective. Some here need it once in a while. 

[finn]

12 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

I think if they get into the playoffs Nacua will destroy the Cowboys secondary.

Quick sidebar: How did everyone miss on Nacua? The guy is amazing. 

[GunnerBill]

20 hours ago, folz said:

I don't completely disagree with your premise, I think we all hoped for a little more consistent (or splashy) production from Kincaid across this season (again, that's not on Kincaid, but more about his number of opportunities).

 

BUT, as others have said, it seems like a strange thing to be complaining/worrying about right now.

 

First of all, he is a rookie, and you are comparing him to the best in the league currently, such as George Kittle. Let's look at George Kittle's and some other TE's rookie stats in comparison---the current 5 best TEs in the league their rookie years.

 

Kincaid: 66 rec. 83 targets. 589 yards. 2 TDs

               70 rec. 88 targets. 626 yards. 2 TDs (Kincaid's stats prorated to 17 games)

Kittle:     43 rec. 63 targets. 515 yards. 2 TDs

Kelce: only played in one game as a rookie. 2nd year stats below:

               67 rec. 87 targets. 862 yards. 5 TDs

Andrews: 34 rec. 50 targets. 552 yards. 3 TDs

Waller: 2 rec. 6 targets. 18 yards. 1 TD

Goedert: 33 rec. 44 targets. 334 yards. 4 TDs.

 

Plus, I'm not sure what all of the other player's situations were their rookie years, but Kincaid was coming to a team that already had an established TE (though he missed 5 games this year), lots of other weapons (Diggs, Davis, Cook, Knox, Shakir, etc.), and an offensive coordinator that was in over his head and then fired mid-season. Yes, LaPorta is having a great rookie season, but he also has 47 more targets on the year than Kincaid. If Kincaid had 47 more targets, his yards would prorate to 803 yards (LaPorta has 860 yards). He does have 7 more TDs than Kincaid, but he is obviously more of a target in the red zone as Detroit doesn't have a lot of production behind St. Brown. So, could Kincaid have been targeted more or differently at times, sure, but I don't see it as an issue of any kind right now, especially after a week where he had a 51-yard reception and a stat line of 4 for 87 yards.

 

Kincaid is fine. Kincaid was a good pick. He will develop and how they use him will develop as the relationship grows. Nothing to see here.

 

As I said earlier in the thread, even if he is held to 0 yards on Sunday Kincaid's was the 14th best rookie TE season OF ALL TIME. The problem was some people thought they were getting year 9 Travis Kelce right off the bat and that was never happening. 

10 minutes ago, finn said:

Quick sidebar: How did everyone miss on Nacua? The guy is amazing. 

 

He never even crossed my radar. He got an invite to the Senior Bowl and I watched the game but I don't remember seeing him once. Fair play to the Rams though for drafting him in the 5th. I think he was probably more like a Priority Free Agent type for most teams. 

[ngbills]

To the "compare only rookie stats" comments Here is my issue with that mindset. Much of the rookie stats are influenced by opportunity not ability. Look at a guy like Devin Singletary. He rushed for ~800 yards and 5+ yards per carry. Does that mean he was that good or just that he was good enough AND given the chance to play. Could those same carries have very similar results with a ton of other RB's? His stats have not changed much since then so I say opportunity. A more extreme Bills example is Robert Foster and his 500 yard season as a rookie - ability or opportunity? Was it because he is amazing or the ball has to be caught by somebody? What has he done since? Hence I vote for opportunity.

 

That is how I see Kincaid at this point. His stats are primarily opportunity not amazing play. Looking solely at the basic stats can be misleading. He is a 1st round-pick talent so obviously can play. But I think his record-breaking stats are more that the Bills fed him the ball and as the advanced data suggests much of it was easy stuff and he did not add a ton of extra to that (depth of targets, yards after catch, 1st downs, touchdowns). IMO you dont draft a TE in round 1 to use him that way so hopefully we see more in the future. I will say it again, he needs to be catching passes down the field not dump-offs. There are better guys to have the ball on short passes like Cook who can make guys miss or even Knox who can run a guy over. 

[MJS]

So you are saying he isn't elite in every single metric, yet? Why not just post his rankings in certain things, as well as his stats compared to other rookies?

 

OF COURSE his stats don't line up with Kelce and Kittle. They likely never will. They are the best of the best.

 

The truth is, Kincaid is a promising rookie who has shown great flashes. There is no reason to make it more complicated than that.

[LABILLBACKER]

The bottom line is Kincaid was under targeted and used poorly in route design. Throw in the teams confusion on what to do with Knox and you have an offense still with an inconsistent identity. Pick a damn OC and start deciding whether you're serious or not about a 12 personnel approach.  Personally I'd phase out Knox (and that contract) and go 11 personnel with Kincaid.  Then draft a legit WR2 to compliment Diggs/Shakir.

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The bottom line is Kincaid was under targeted and used poorly in route design. Throw in the teams confusion on what to do with Knox and you have an offense still with an inconsistent identity. Pick a damn OC and start deciding whether you're serious or not about a 12 personnel approach.  Personally I'd phase out Knox (and that contract) and go 11 personnel with Kincaid.  Then draft a legit WR2 to compliment Diggs/Shakir.

We gave Knox the same contract as Njoku the same offseason...then we drafted Kincaid in the first. 

[ngbills]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

So you are saying he isn't elite in every single metric, yet? Why not just post his rankings in certain things, as well as his stats compared to other rookies?

 

OF COURSE his stats don't line up with Kelce and Kittle. They likely never will. They are the best of the best.

 

The truth is, Kincaid is a promising rookie who has shown great flashes. There is no reason to make it more complicated than that.

He is actually in the middle to bottom in nearly all metrics. That is the difference. Not that he is not the best yet. He is being used in the most conservative way possible and has way less flash or impactful plays than other teams TE's. You said, truth is he is a promising rookie - I am on board with that. I am not on board with the he is already elite talk. There is a ton of pushing on how amazing of a season he had and I just feel there are many players that given the opportunity could replicate his numbers. Not his fault that the Bills made him a safety valve and he did what many would do with that role. If he was turning all those dump offs into 50 yards then we should be talking about how elite he is. 

[MikePJ76]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Here's an idea...

 

How about comparing Dalton Kincaid to other Rookie Tight Ends, as it's one of the slowest developing positions.

 

Dalton Kincaid:

66 Receptions, 589 yards, 2 TD

 

Travis Kelce (didn't play rookie season):

2nd year -- 67 receptions, 862 yards, 5 TD

 

George Kittle Rookie:

43 receptions, 515 yards, 2 TD

 

Mark Andrews Rookie:

34 Receptions, 552 yards, 3 TD

 

TJ Hockenson Rookie:

32 Receptions, 367 yards, 2 TD

 

David Njoku Rookie:

32 Receptions, 386 yards, 4TD

 

Zach Ertz Rookie:

36 Receptions, 469 yards, 4TD

 

Jason Witten Rookie:

35 Receptions, 347 yards, 1TD

 

Antonio Gates Rookie:

24 Receptions, 389 yards, 2TD

 

 

 

I still feel like so far Kincaid reminds me of a smaller version of Jason Witten.  Within 20 yards or so Witten was uncoverable.  Kincaid looks like he has that same ability.  He looks like he can get in the slot and get open within that same range at any time.  Hopefully he will make bigger plays down the road.

 

Witten's rookie numbers are low because he played as the #2 TE to Dan Campbell with Quincy Carter and a trio of excellent wr and they threw the ball the first half to them constantly.  In the second half of that year teams took away the wr and the offense stalled plus Witten broke his jaw as a rookie and missed a game.

 

I hope kincaid makes more plays in the redzone going forward also but it is hard to get the ball down there right now between the backs and Allen running it in.

 

This should be a good game sunday for Kincaid.