Kincaid Comparisons

[ngbills]

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

[mrags]

Not his fault he hasn’t been used properly. 

[Matt_In_NH]

This is mostly related to depth of target and once that goes up ( I think it will over time), his other numbers will also change.  It is clear he is a great talent to me but we need to temper expectations as he is a rookie. I know Laporta is a rookie too but both are having great years for rookie TE's, Laporta is just blowing it out of the water.

[Rubes]

If all Kincaid got were "easy" catches without much YAC that kept getting us first downs, I'd be pretty happy.

 

Anything above that is gravy.

 

[K D]

Should we revisit the TE stats thread where a good number of you said he was going to have 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD's? Nobody drafts a TE high in the first round because they don't provide bang for your buck. It's not a position of value. A good rookie TE season was always going to be roughly what Kincaid has given us which is nothing to write home about compared to a great #2 receiver (Flowers, Nacua).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

 

He is targeted a lot on first down - so his 1st down numbers would potentially be lower as he'd need at least 10 yards on a catch to get a 1st down.  

[Ben]

For a rookie he's been great. Misused at times but still about as encouraging a first year player as I can remember 

[Special K]

Seems like you put in a lot of time and effort to find something to complain about that really didn't need to be complained about.......why??

[GunnerBill]

He has definitely been used more in the short game and less down the seam than I would have thought. But as I said in the thread that this might get merged into, maybe we should have expected it. The immediate post draft presser Brandon Beane talked about him as being part of the solution to the loss of Cole Beasley.

[julian]

3 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Should we revisit the TE stats thread where a good number of you said he was going to have 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD's? Nobody drafts a TE high in the first round because they don't provide bang for your buck. It's not a position of value. A good rookie TE season was always going to be roughly what Kincaid has given us which is nothing to write home about compared to a great #2 receiver (Flowers, Nacua).

While I agree Kincaid has had a good, I might even say a really good rookie season, the unrealistic expectations because of college pedigree and draft status combined with a great training camp were destined to come up short.

 

 He looks like a top 5 TE moving forward to me with unlimited upside. I’m very excited to watch him a Josh become a feared duo in the coming years.

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post ...

 

That right there.  

 

Coaching

 

It's not limited to him offensively. 

 

 

[K D]

Just now, julian said:

While I agree Kincaid has had a good, I might even say a really good rookie season, the unrealistic expectations because of college pedigree and draft status combined with a great training camp were destined to come up short.

 

 He looks like a top 5 TE moving forward to me with unlimited upside. I’m very excited to watch him a Josh become a feared duo in the coming years.

Yep he's a very good TE. But does a very good TE's output garner a 1st round draft pick? My argument back then was even a decent WR was probably going to put up better numbers. We really needed a #2 WR. Could have had Rashee Rice among others

[schoolhouserock]

How does he stack up in terms of receptions?

 

Edit: Would also be good to see receptions per target.

 

It seems like those two might be where he has done fairly well this season? Were they left out intentionally?

Edited January 3 by schoolhouserock

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Yeah he's been much more a possession receiver than a game breaker as a rookie.    Hopefully that changes.   They went deep to him twice in the last game.   Maybe some of that opens up the intermediate a bit more.   I think he's been a little easier to bring down than you'd like to see from a big target like that........but otherwise he's looked as advertised.   Natural hands,  quick transition from receiver to runner,   good and instinctive route runner.....

[strive_for_five_guy]

I love the guys’ hands and how fluid he looks out there.  The other TEs you’re comparing him against are their team’s main TEs, right?  Kincaid has been sharing snaps with Knox, so there’s that.  

The biggest thing that I think is holding Kincaid back from the next level is his strength.  Guy definitely could use the first full offseason bulking up a little.  If he can, I think this guy could take some huge steps in year two, via increased snaps and better production when thrown to.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I don’t think he couldve had a Laporta-like rookie year because there’s no other pass catchers getting a ton of defensive attention on our offense.  
 

Kincaids been great for the situation he’s been in…pick looks like a home run.  He’s right on pace with the kittle’s of the league’s rookie years

Edited January 3 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[julian]

4 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yep he's a very good TE. But does a very good TE's output garner a 1st round draft pick? My argument back then was even a decent WR was probably going to put up better numbers. We really needed a #2 WR. Could have had Rashee Rice among others

I’m not exchanging Kincaid for Rice, not a chance… Flowers maybe, and I agree the WR has a higher probability of helping right away.

 

 Kincaid’s season this far has not done anything to damper my feelings about his potential moving forward, but I understand your perspective.

[BuffaloBillyG]

While it's true the TDs and depth of reception are not flashy, the dude just set the team record for receptions by anyone in their rookie season. He's been a reliable target that gets extra yards and helps move the chains. He's been fine.

 

You are also comparing him with guys that (aside from LaPorta) have been in the league and are at or near the top of the league at their position. We don't run the same wide open concepts that teams like Detroit run, and he's not the #1 target like in KC.

 

I'm more anxious to see him next season after a full off season of strength and conditioning at the NFL level. 

[Maine-iac]

We don't use designed quick passes (outside of WR screens).  Quick slants or quick hits straight up the seam are not something we use more than once or twice a game.  I was actually looking at Kincaid(23) vs Knox (21 and 22) Kincaid has more catches but the yards are pretty similar and Knox seemingly is a better jump ball option in the end zone.  Knox was/is more physical and frequently trucked guys for big yardage.  Kincaid is what we thought he was .......... a big receiver.  We set up for deep throws every drop back and occasionally work screens with mediocre success.  Quick passes are just not a thing in this offense.  If they just took a few drives and looked short first and long later Shakir and Kincaid would probably eat teams up and it would open up things for Diggs and Davis.  I also thougtht we would never in a million years show any commitment to a running attack but here we are. 

Edited January 3 by Maine-iac

[Don Otreply]

It has been a bit of a chronic issue when it comes to personnel usage, with the Bills,  the powers that be need to steal plays/ usages that other teams have shown that work, and be unapologetic about it,  it’s the proverbial “ think outside the box “ before it’s to late, they are too wed to the same personnel usage concepts that they have been using since Dabol’s time here, it’s time to shake things up, the season is on the line. Jmo.
 

GO BILLS!!!