The Tua Dilemma...

[Inigo Montoya]

There's a thread simmering on Fins Heaven entitled "Do not resign Tua".   It seems about evenly split on the proposition (link below).

 

Tua is currently playing on the fourth year of his rookie contract at $9 million this year.  They exercised his 5th year option and next year he will be on the books for $23 million fully guaranteed (link below).  The question is what to do afterwards?

 

I don't think there's a good answer for the Dolphins, either overpay a QB who probably isn't good enough to get you to a Super Bowl, or head back to wandering in the QB desert hoping to get lucky.   

 

With the escalation in QB contracts the Dolphins will be looking at $50 million a year to keep Tua.  Look at the last several QB contracts yearly average (link below).  Where do you slot Tua in when it's his turn?

 

Burrow;  $55 million

Herbert; $52.5  million

Lamar;  $52 million

Hurts;  $51 million

Wilson;  $49 million

Murray;  $46.1 million

 

There's a quote in the thread which pretty closely mirrors my opinion on the situation with Tua; 

 

"We're in the Daniel Jones no-man's land where we're gonna have to sign him since there's no one else and we're not going to be able to do it on the cheap so we're gonna be investing a lot of money in one guy who we're not even really sure is the guy since he has yet to actually ball out in a big game"

 

 

https://finheaven.com/threads/do-not-resign-tua.381887/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

 

 

 

Edited January 3 by Inigo Montoya

[Virgil]

Tua will get paid and it will be 50 mil per at least.  
 

Do I think he deserves it?  No.  But I also didn’t think Hurts did either. 

[Kincaid Kool-Aid]

Let’s hope so. Tyreek will only have his game breaking speed for so long, Waddle is very good but not great and Mostert is older as well. Let the fish tie up a boatload of the cap to a noodle armed injury prone QB who can’t win big games.

 

Also, the least they could do is overpay him after actively trying to get him killed last year. Yeesh..

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I’m here for this. By all means sign Tua (but best have some tuppins left over for a serviceable backup ‘cause you’ll need that guy eventually) and let the Bills keep spoiling the Phins’ division hopes🥸.

[Dr.Sack]

But Tua has less interceptions than Allen so he must be better. 

[Scott7975]

They have to pay him.  They don't really have options.

[GETTOTHE50]

What else are they going to do? Sign joe Flacco to throw bombs to Tyreek for one year? Who else is out there. Russel Wilson? Gardner minshew? Baker mayfield?

 

They are like the cowboys with Dak. They have no choice but to sign him long term. 
 

 

 

[QB Bills]

Lots of needless Tua hate. He's a pretty good QB. And seems like a nice kid too. Hope he gets his.

Edited January 3 by QB Bills

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Lots of needless Tua hate. He's a pretty good QB. And seems like a nice kid too. Hope he gets his.

I don’t think it’s hate at all lol everyone is saying what you are saying…he’s pretty good but they’re gonna have to pay him like he’s excellent hence the dilemma 

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Lots of needless Tua hate. He's a pretty good QB. And seems like a nice kid too. Hope he gets his.

Nobody is hating him. And being a "pretty good QB" is exactly the problem. He is like Kirk Cousins or Dak Prescott. Good enough to have a good regular season and get to the playoffs sometimes, but not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Not good enough to be able to put the team on his back and will them to victory.

 

Teams with a QB like that usually have to pay them, but then never end up going anywhere in the long run until they move on.

[That's No Moon]

[K D]

Tua is a 1 read QB. He had a noodle arm, not mobile, and has a history of concussions. Naturally he's about to be the highest paid player in NFL history!

[Governor]

Keeping Tua means you’re stuck with an offense that relies entirely on speed and timing and that usually only gets you so far. 
 

If the offense gets stopped, I understand why fans would want a change.

[Beast]

Tua will sign for mid 40’s on a short term, two or three year deal, and the guarantees will be low. No team is going to offer him more, especially with his concussion history. If he can stay healthy it will be a good deal for Miami. Tua is a good QB.

[Ray Stonada]

Who says he can't get them there? He's not Brady or Mahomes, but Flacco, Wilson, Eli Manning, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer all won Super Bowls. He's in that league for sure. Heck the Bills lost SBs to Jeff Hostetler and Mark Rypien.

 

You don't throw away Tua when you have nothing else.

 

What they need to do is improve their defense, especially the coaching. 

 

[GunnerBill]

You have to pay him. It is about structuring it as cleverly as possible to limit the length of the true commitment to 2-3 years max. The AAV is the flashy figure and that will be in the $50m range. But this contract is all about the structure and the guarantees. 

 

[Since1981]

have to pay tuafish. I don’t think he’s a top 10. But AFC is now littered by clubs chasing QB1 for years. Plus multi year debacles in Jets, Broncos, etc.

[H2o]

I like Tua. He's a high character young man, on and off the field. He's not a bad QB, but he's not a great QB. It is similar to the Daniel Jones situation in a way, but I think Tua is the better passer of the two.

 

Two things stand out though. One, he is fragile. One more concussion could end his career. That scene against the Bengals last year was scary. And his lengthy injury history goes all the way back to college. Two, he seems to disappear in the moments you'd expect a $50M QB to show up. Tua has two actual game winning drives in his NFL career. Both came in 2021 and both were against the Jets. There is nothing about Tua that strikes fear into another team. Have you ever heard anyone, announcers, analysts, bobbleheads, opposing team's players, coaches, I mean anyone say, "We don't want to leave Tua too much time,"? I haven't. I've heard them say it about Mahomes, JA, Lamar, Hurts, Burrow, and even Stafford, but never Tua. 

 

He's a solid QB in the perfect offensive system for his skillset, but nothing about him is elite. The Dolphins will be forced to pay him unless they are fortunate enough to find a QB who outperforms his draft position. Can't say it will hurt my feelings when the Dolphins cut that check. 

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

Tua will get paid and it will be 50 mil per at least.  
 

Do I think he deserves it?  No.  But I also didn’t think Hurts did either. 

Totally agree.
 

The advantage that Allen/Mahomes has is they can make something out of nothing at times. Even in reset years it means that they will always have a chance. 
 

KC and Buffalo likely misses the playoffs with Tua at QB. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

I’m glad we don’t have this dilemma with our QB.  Whatever they pay Tua, it will be more than I’d ever want to fork up for the guy.  And I think McDaniel will convince that powers in Miami to do it, as I think he will feel a sense of loyalty to Tua and making things work with him.