mannc Posted January 3 Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Yes, but.. The Draft is simply a crap shoot. Especially with WRs. Ya just never know and they typically take a few years to realize their potential. Could be a bust or could be a Jerry Butler/JD Hill. Imo, a very good WR to play with Josh for a few seasons is best left to a trade or FA signing -Not early Draft picks. I haven’t looked at all the recent data, but my sense is that the bust rate for first round WRs is lower than for most positions, especially when you have an elite QB…Jalen Raegor 🤣 is the only recent one that leaps to mind. Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mannc said: Not sure how you can say that. Jefferson was a great prospect and he’s still on a rookie contract. Meanwhile, Diggs has hit a wall. Easy- if teams knew he was going to be the best WR in the league, he wouldn’t have slipped to 22. 4 teams drafted other WRs over him. I think it’s safe to say exactly what @BillsFanForever19 said. No one knew Justin Jefferson would become the best WR in the league. 2 Quote
mannc Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NewEra said: Easy- if teams knew he was going to be the best WR in the league, he wouldn’t have slipped to 22. 4 teams drafted other WRs over him. I think it’s safe to say exactly what @BillsFanForever19 said. No one knew Justin Jefferson would become the best WR in the league. Maybe the Vikings knew he was going to be great. How can you say they didn’t? 1 Quote
whorlnut Posted January 3 Author Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, mannc said: Maybe the Vikings knew he was going to be great. How can you say they didn’t? You are arguing just to be difficult at this point. Congrats…you’re “that guy”… 1 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, mannc said: Maybe the Vikings knew he was going to be great. How can you say they didn’t? Because if they KNEW he was going to be the best WR in football, they wouldn’t have sat there and hoped that the eagles (who everyone knew needed a WR) would draft Jaelon Reagor. No one had Reagor rated ahead of Jefferson (except Roseman apparently). He fell into their laps. They were very lucky. Don’t get me wrong, I thought he was going to be a very good WR at worst with upside for greatness. But what @BillsFanForever19 said “no one knew Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson”…..Aka the best WR in the league. It can never be proven either way, but if minny thought he was the best WR in the entire league, I think they would’ve traded up. ceedee lamb was taken at 18- then 2 major reaches in Austin Jackson and Damon Arnette. Minny could have traded up. They didn’t. Just now, whorlnut said: You are arguing just to be difficult at this point. Congrats…you’re “that guy”… The “you can’t prove me wrong” argument. 1 2 Quote
mannc Posted January 3 Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, whorlnut said: You are arguing just to be difficult at this point. Congrats…you’re “that guy”… The Vikings took a great WR with their first round pick…they thought, at a minimum, he was going to be very good. What is there to argue about? if Kincaid (taken at 23) turns into the next Travis Kelce are you going to say the Bills didn’t know he was going to be great because they would have traded up even higher if they had known? 1 Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 3 Posted January 3 15 hours ago, whorlnut said: I’m really hoping Beane takes a WR in the first round this year and would then like to see another taken in round 2 if they are rated high on our board. We did this with Rousseau and Basham when we needed someone to get after Mahomes. Why can’t we do it again for our franchise qb? Go hard at the position and give yourself the best shot possible at finding another top receiver. These guys could end up being WR1 and WR2 after Diggs leaves. I love the idea of rookie contracts, with one having the fifth year option. This is a passing league and if we hit on one, that gives Allen Kincaid and the new guy for at least 4 years on rookie deals. If we hit on both, then all the better. Considering the best WR from the 2023 class was a 5th round pick, i don't know that you need to double dip in the first 2 rounds. There wouldn't be enough snaps for a 2nd round player between having to split time with 1st round WR, Shakir, Kincaid, and Knox. Free agency will change a bunch of factors - but Buffalo appears to be set at QB1 - RB1 - The rest can be depth vets, 6th round or later, or UDFA's WR1 - Assume Diggs is back, i don't really know why he'd want to leave other than coaching. He doesn't get trade control (could end up on the panthers or something), is already on a contender, 8th in the league in targets. WR2 - No one on roster that I'd have a ton of faith in. Would like some serious wheels. Shorter projects more in that Sherfield role than anything else to me. WR3 - Shakir TE1/2 - Both locked in OT - Both locked in OG - Both locked in C - Bates probably steps in if morse is a cap casualty - they could also look to add here in the draft with an OG/C player Defensively its just... a mess. I assume a lot gets figured out around free agency. DQ being brought back would go a long way. I don't see how they can play much in the pass rushing FA pool with limited resources, but we said that last year and ended up with Floyd. LB looks fairly set with a solid depth piece behind the starters. Corner with or without tre is fairly solid. S is another huge ?. DE - Rousseau Johnathan Miller DT - Oliver LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams CB - Douglas, White (potential Cap casualty), Johnson, Benford, Elam, Neal S - Poyer (also potential cap casualty) 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 (edited) 17 minutes ago, mannc said: The Vikings took a great WR with their first round pick…they thought, at a minimum, he was going to be very good. What is there to argue about? if Kincaid (taken at 23) turns into the next Travis Kelce are you going to say the Bills didn’t know he was going to be great because they would have traded up even higher if they had known? You’re arguing that the Vikings knew JJ would be the best WR in the league. That’s the post that you quoted and rebutted……. So, at this moment, do the Bills know that Kincaid will be the best TE in the league? when teams draft players in the 20’s most don’t think that they are drafting the leagues best at their position. Sure, they think that they’ll be good…..but that’s different. You seem to be arguing that the Vikings knew they were drafting the best WR in the league when they drafted him. You can stand on that hill because there will never be proof to prove one side or the other. It’s just a strange hill to stand on Edited January 3 by NewEra Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 3 Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, NewEra said: Because if they KNEW he was going to be the best WR in football, they wouldn’t have sat there and hoped that the eagles (who everyone knew needed a WR) would draft Jaelon Reagor. No one had Reagor rated ahead of Jefferson (except Roseman apparently). He fell into their laps. They were very lucky. Don’t get me wrong, I thought he was going to be a very good WR at worst with upside for greatness. But what @BillsFanForever19 said “no one knew Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson”…..Aka the best WR in the league. It can never be proven either way, but if minny thought he was the best WR in the entire league, I think they would’ve traded up. ceedee lamb was taken at 18- then 2 major reaches in Austin Jackson and Damon Arnette. Minny could have traded up. They didn’t. The “you can’t prove me wrong” argument. I feel like a lot of the experts felt jefferson's professional success would end up with him playing primarily in the slot. Teams don't usually prioritize that in the first round. That his 4.4 40 time didn't really reflect his play speed accurately, and that he played smaller than his size. The experts were wrong. We'll never know what Ruggs was capable of, but he had the measurables that GM's drool over. Jeudy felt "safe", but his concentration drops have been an issue. Lamb felt like the home run swing in the first, even if he didn't test that well - Him not being the first off the board that year was shocking. And reagor felt like the deep threat. Aiyuk, Higgins, Pittman all were there too, albeit with their own wrinkles - Aiyuk didn't have a ton of impressive film, Higgins was considered raw route running, Pittman got the "possession receiver" label etc. 1 Quote
pocoboy Posted January 3 Posted January 3 15 hours ago, whorlnut said: I’m really hoping Beane takes a WR in the first round this year and would then like to see another taken in round 2 if they are rated high on our board. We did this with Rousseau and Basham when we needed someone to get after Mahomes. Why can’t we do it again for our franchise qb? Go hard at the position and give yourself the best shot possible at finding another top receiver. These guys could end up being WR1 and WR2 after Diggs leaves. I love the idea of rookie contracts, with one having the fifth year option. This is a passing league and if we hit on one, that gives Allen Kincaid and the new guy for at least 4 years on rookie deals. If we hit on both, then all the better. They are fascinated with defensive players. I can't see them drafting O in the first round two years in a row. Just not McDermott's bag. 1 1 Quote
mannc Posted January 3 Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, NewEra said: You’re arguing that the Vikings knew JJ would be the best WR in the league. That’s the post that you quoted and rebutted……. So, at this moment, do the Bills know that Kincaid will be the best TE in the league? when teams draft players in the 20’s most don’t think that they are drafting the leagues best at their position. Sure, they think that they’ll be good…..but that’s different. You seem to be arguing that the Vikings knew they were drafting the best WR in the league when they drafted him. You can stand on that hill because there will never be proof to prove one side or the other. It’s just a strange hill to stand on And you’re trying to deny that the Vikings got the best of the Diggs trade, which is inarguable, on the grounds that they “got lucky”…that’s a pretty weak hill to stand on. 2 minutes ago, pocoboy said: They are fascinated with defensive players. I can't see them drafting O in the first round two years in a row. Just not McDermott's bag. They will be going Safety in round 1, and maybe WR in round 2. Beane will say WR was a deeper position in the draft and they still got a good player, etc… Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 3 Posted January 3 51 minutes ago, mannc said: I haven’t looked at all the recent data, but my sense is that the bust rate for first round WRs is lower than for most positions, especially when you have an elite QB…Jalen Raegor 🤣 is the only recent one that leaps to mind. 2017 - Corey Davis (bust), Mike Williams, Ross (bust) - 66% 2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley - 0% 2019 - Hollywood Brown (not a bust, but 1 1000 yard season in 5 isn't leaping off the page), Nkeal Harry - BUST - 50% 2020 - Ruggs (bust), Jeudy (0 1000 yard seasons, i'm leaning bust), Lamb, Reagor (Bust), Jefferson, Aiyuk. 3/6 - 50% 2021 - Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney (Bust), Bateman (bust) - 2/5 - 40% 2022 - Too early to tell fully - but seems like a solid class. London, Burks, Dotson all don't have QBs, and Williams is not getting snaps. Olave and Wilson look solid even without good QBs. 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mannc said: And you’re trying to deny that the Vikings got the best of the Diggs trade, which is inarguable, on the grounds that they “got lucky”…that’s a pretty weak hill to stand on. WTH are you even talking about? Talk about moving the goalposts…..good lord bro. I’ve said nothing of the sorts- I never touched on who got the best of the trade. You’re pulling this out of you butt because your original post is 💩. if you’d like my take on who got the better of the trade here it is. It’s multi layered: -If the Vikings win the SB with Jefferson, they got the best of the trade, regardless of if the bills win a SB with Diggs (unless the bills win multiple SBs). - the Bills win the SB with Diggs and the Vikings don’t win one with Jefferson, the Bills got the best of the trade. - if neither team wins a SB with their WR, the Vikings got the best of the trade because they got the best WR in the league and had him on a rookie contract for 5 years. going into that draft, I thought there was, maybe, a 20% chance that Jefferson would’ve fallen to us at 22. Trading for Diggs guaranteed that we would land an bonafide WR1. There would be no hoping or luck. Beane took the bull by the horns and made a trade that transformed us from a wild card caliber team to a Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, Minnesota has missed the playoffs in 3 of Jefferson’s 4 seasons and has zero playoff wins. 1 Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 3 Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, pocoboy said: They are fascinated with defensive players. I can't see them drafting O in the first round two years in a row. Just not McDermott's bag. They do need to get a bit younger on that side of the ball. Only a few starters on rookie deals going into 2024- Benford, Bernard, Rousseau. You have Williams and Elam there for depth. On offense - Kincaid, Torrence, Brown, Cook, Shakir are all on rookie deals and play pretty important roles. Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NewEra said: WTH are you even talking about? Talk about moving the goalposts…..good lord bro. I’ve said nothing of the sorts- I never touched on who got the best of the trade. You’re pulling this out of you butt because your original post is 💩. if you’d like my take on who got the better of the trade here it is. It’s multi layered: -If the Vikings win the SB with Jefferson, they got the best of the trade, regardless of if the bills win a SB with Diggs (unless the bills win multiple SBs). - the Bills win the SB with Diggs and the Vikings don’t win one with Jefferson, the Bills got the best of the trade. - if neither team wins a SB with their WR, the Vikings got the best of the trade because they got the best WR in the league and had him on a rookie contract for 5 years. going into that draft, I thought there was, maybe, a 20% chance that Jefferson would’ve fallen to us at 22. Trading for Diggs guaranteed that we would land an bonafide WR1. There would be no hoping or luck. Beane took the bull by the horns and made a trade that transformed us from a wild card caliber team to a Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, Minnesota has missed the playoffs in 3 of Jefferson’s 4 seasons and has zero playoff wins. I remember all the mocks had lamb/jeudy/jefferson/ruggs in the top 10-15. Jags didn't get a WR. Jets didn't get a WR. Giants didn't get a WR. Lions didn't get a WR. 49ers waited even though they could've had Lamb. Whatever happened between picks 18 and 21. It just fell really weird that year. Most of us expected maybe Aiyuk, and talked ourselves into higgins at 22. You trade the first, you get your guy - you give allen a true number 1. Minnesota doesn't have to pay him, and they ended up getting the 5th off the board when most of us expected something like 7th. 1 Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: I remember all the mocks had lamb/jeudy/jefferson/ruggs in the top 10-15. Jags didn't get a WR. Jets didn't get a WR. Giants didn't get a WR. Lions didn't get a WR. 49ers waited even though they could've had Lamb. Whatever happened between picks 18 and 21. It just fell really weird that year. Most of us expected maybe Aiyuk, and talked ourselves into higgins at 22. You trade the first, you get your guy - you give allen a true number 1. Minnesota doesn't have to pay him, and they ended up getting the 5th off the board when most of us expected something like 7th. Exactly- I figured it would be Higgins or Aiyuk. Reagor wasn’t even a thought- yet he was taken before Jefferson. Just nuts Quote
DJB Posted January 3 Posted January 3 WR in round 1 please . We need to invest high in the position rather than waiting until middle to late rounds hoping we can develop someone. Nabers or Odunze . Harrison will be long gone Quote
DCOrange Posted January 3 Posted January 3 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I won’t mind that at all. I’m in love with Rome O but that is a pipe dream. I also think we desperately need a stud pass rusher. but if there was ever a year to need a wr, this is the one. Free agency is relatively stacked at WR and the draft is crazy this year. It might not be Odunze, but someone that's considered that tier of prospect will likely be available at our pick. 1 minute ago, DJB said: WR in round 1 please . We need to invest high in the position rather than waiting until middle to late rounds hoping we can develop someone. Nabers or Odunze . Harrison will be long gone Obviously a lot can change between now and April, but Nabers is currently viewed as a top 10 pick. Odunze at the moment seems more attainable, but probably still out of reach for us barring a trade up. But there's like 10 WRs this year that have a chance of going in the first round so there will be talent available for sure. Quote
DJB Posted January 3 Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, NewEra said: WTH are you even talking about? Talk about moving the goalposts…..good lord bro. I’ve said nothing of the sorts- I never touched on who got the best of the trade. You’re pulling this out of you butt because your original post is 💩. if you’d like my take on who got the better of the trade here it is. It’s multi layered: -If the Vikings win the SB with Jefferson, they got the best of the trade, regardless of if the bills win a SB with Diggs (unless the bills win multiple SBs). - the Bills win the SB with Diggs and the Vikings don’t win one with Jefferson, the Bills got the best of the trade. - if neither team wins a SB with their WR, the Vikings got the best of the trade because they got the best WR in the league and had him on a rookie contract for 5 years. going into that draft, I thought there was, maybe, a 20% chance that Jefferson would’ve fallen to us at 22. Trading for Diggs guaranteed that we would land an bonafide WR1. There would be no hoping or luck. Beane took the bull by the horns and made a trade that transformed us from a wild card caliber team to a Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, Minnesota has missed the playoffs in 3 of Jefferson’s 4 seasons and has zero playoff wins. But it doesn’t change the fact that Jefferson is far better and younger as well. Quote
NewEra Posted January 3 Posted January 3 Just now, DJB said: But it doesn’t change the fact that Jefferson is far better and younger as well. Which has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand- Quote
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