Historic Possibilities. 2 Seed or Bust

[ticketssince61]

7 hours ago, boyst said:

more Bard AI.

 

Since 1975: 21.3% of #2 seeds reach the Super Bowl

Since 2000: 13.3% with 7 out of 53 teams @ #2 reaching the playoffs.

 

since '75 42.7% advance to the conference championships

since '00: 37.7% advance to the conf championship

 

 

 

Up until recently, a 2 seed only needed 1 win to go to conference championship and 2 to go to the super bowl.

 

Now it is is 3 and 4

[Billznut]

19 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Up until recently, a 2 seed only needed 1 win to go to conference championship and 2 to go to the super bowl.

 

Now it is is 3 and 4

Yep. Glad someone else noticed that as well. All those 2 seed stats from 1975 onward don’t mean a thing when the vast majority of those years the 2 seed got a bye. Only the stats from the last few years when they changed the seeding 1-7 would really matter and there isn’t much of a sample size to gain anything from in reality. 

[Starr Almighty]

5 hours ago, Cvanvol7 said:

Not really. The 2 seed is guaranteed two home games with wins. It used to be a bye. They aren’t interchangeable imo

It no longer has a bye attacked to it

[Dan Darragh]

12 hours ago, Cvanvol7 said:

Doing some AI questioning today because I feel like this fact continues to be mentioned but glossed over. Is this actually right? It looks like it is almost statistically impossible for a team to get into the situation the bills possibly face on Sunday.

 

This terrifies me as it seems incredibly cursed for us to find the team facing this.......

 

 

This is what AI told me:

 

"After thoroughly reviewing NFL history, I cannot find any examples of a team facing a "win and get the #2 seed, lose and miss the playoffs" scenario in the final week of the regular season.

The closest situations I could find are:

2008 Buccaneers: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs

2011 Cowboys: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs

But in both cases the highest seed the teams could get with a win was #4, not #2.

Based on my research, it appears no team has ever entered the final week where:

A win would clinch the #2 seed in their conference

A loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely

The factors that would have to align to create that specific scenario seem to be too unlikely over the history of the league.

So in summary, while teams have faced "win and in, lose and out" situations before, I could not find an instance where the specific seeding at stake was the #2 seed versus missing the playoffs completely. Please let me know if I'm missing any historical examples, but I believe your original assumption is correct - that scenario has likely never occurred in the NFL's regular season finale."

I recognize that writing style, it was written by Claudine Gay.

[TwistofFate]

11 hours ago, Gary Marangi said:

I would love to stomp the Jags at home

You mean for real at home, not a pretend home game across the globe where they posted up for two weeks waiting for us? 

 

It would be nice. 

[co_springs_billsfan]

3 hours ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Up until recently, a 2 seed only needed 1 win to go to conference championship and 2 to go to the super bowl.

 

Now it is is 3 and 4

No, for the 2 seed 1/2 wins became 2/3 wins to reach championship game/super bowl, not 3/4.   

[Cvanvol7]

8 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

It no longer has a bye attacked to it

I'm not sure what you are focused on but the difference between 2 and 3/4 is large. Not as much as a bye used to be but two home games is a lot. Avoiding the 1 seed is as well 

[Gregg]

If the Bills get the #2 seed, then I think they have a great chance to at least get to the AFCCG. On WC weekend they would get one of the Texans, Colts, Steelers. In the divisional round they would most likely get the Chiefs or Browns-Jags if the fish won at KC. Cleveland would be tough, but the Bills would still be favorite at home.

[PatsFanNH]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Something about the NFL script writers putting that game essentially on in primetime tho…….I think they believe the game will be competitive.  
 

Mason Rudolph could implode vs backups that could frustrate the Steelers offense. 
 

I don’t see the Ravens scoring much tho.  
 

Steelers 20 Ravens 17 - I think it will be close.  

I agree. Mind you Steelers seeing them and getting the 6 see (?) I think would be good for the Bills in the playoffs.. I could see Pitt beating them in Baltimore even at full strength. They seem to always have the Ravens number. 

11 hours ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Up until recently, a 2 seed only needed 1 win to go to conference championship and 2 to go to the super bowl.

 

Now it is is 3 and 4

Umm it’s 2 games to the conference championship and 3 to get to the SB for every team but the 1 seed now.. who gets 1 and 2.. they only get 1 bye week not 2. 

[SoCal Deek]

Now let me say that I really don’t want to get ahead of anything here but who’s to say that if the Bills win and get the #2 seed that the Browns wouldn’t go into Baltimore and beat them in Week 2 thus putting the Bills at home throughout the playoffs? That isn’t at all far fetched. 

[ticketssince61]

6 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Umm it’s 2 games to the conference championship and 3 to get to the SB for every team but the 1 seed now.. who gets 1 and 2.. they only get 1 bye week not 2. 

 

Oops -  You are correct - I was getting ahead of myself and thinking of WINNING the Super bowl