Historic Possibilities. 2 Seed or Bust

[NewEra]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

A December collapse is as dolphinsy as it gets though and both teams seem to always lose in primetime lately…something’s gotta give in this one 😂

Yeah it definitely is as dolphiny as it gets.  I agree 💯.  It’s a thing- ain’t no doubt.  
 

we just have to win and forever we were ever in this ridiculous position to begin with

[Dablitzkrieg]

33 minutes ago, Cvanvol7 said:

For this it was almost entirely Claude AI and Bard. Chat GPT seems to have been changed even more to not allow this type of statistical investigation for legal reasons

Artificial Intelligence 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

If the Steelers win against the Ravens backups, yes it very much does guarantee the Bills miss the playoffs if they don't win in Miami.

It very much does not lol. You’re missing the jags piece of it who could be without Lawrence 

[FilthyBeast]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It very much does not lol. You’re missing the jags piece of it who could be without Lawrence 

 

I already acknowledged this, but again consider the Jags beat the Titans a more probable outcome than the Ravens/Steelers.

 

In fact the Jaguars might be better off right now without Lawrence if he's hurt, at least that was the case last week.

[VaMilBill]

1 hour ago, jethro_tull said:

A loss does not guarantee they will miss the playoffs.  

The good thing is we will know for sure going into the game Sunday if it’s win and in or not

[1stgm1993]

40 minutes ago, Gary Marangi said:

I would love to stomp the Jags at home

 revenge game for sure

[T.E.]

So the Bills are playing arguably the biggest regular season game any team has ever had, huh?

 

That doesn't make me feel great at all.

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

I was originally angry about the possibility being out of the playoffs with a loss but now I am have warmed up to it.  Bills likely need the 2-seed to make a realistic run at the Lombardi this year, and if they don’t get in they get to draft #18, which has been the sweet spot for drafting a #1 wr. 

Lmao. So, no 2 seed you want no part of it. Wow

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

So the Bills are playing arguably the biggest regular season game any team has ever had, huh?

 

That doesn't make me feel great at all.

 

Only if the Steelers and Jaguars win. It will still be a big game but if one of those team lose then at least the Bills are guaranteed a WC before Sunday night.

[ngbills]

Oh the DEN, PHI, NE, NYJ games...2 seed should be a lock.

[Special K]

1 hour ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Who is AL?

 

1 hour ago, Cvanvol7 said:

Artificial Intelligence 

 

Maybe the OP should use this AI crap to look up the definition of sarcasm and comedy.

 

You got a laugh from me.

[H2o]

First off, I hope (just like everyone else) we beat the brakes off of Miami Sunday night to secure the #2 seed. But, if we do not, then maybe, just maybe, the Steelers do what the Bills did all those years ago and lose to a team's 2nd/3rd string to cost themselves a chance at the Playoffs. We shall see. 

[Cvanvol7]

1 minute ago, Special K said:

 

 

Maybe the OP should use this AI crap to look up the definition of sarcasm and comedy.

 

You got a laugh from me.

ok?

 

I thought I had misspelled it and they were being the grammar police. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

27 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I already acknowledged this, but again consider the Jags beat the Titans a more probable outcome than the Ravens/Steelers.

 

In fact the Jaguars might be better off right now without Lawrence if he's hurt, at least that was the case last week.

Most teams look better against the panthers 😁. If the Steelers and jags are 70% to win which feels like a pretty decent estimate if Baltimore rests starters we’re about 78% to make it overall and 50/50 with a loss to miami.  
 

with starters playing all game for Baltimore (very unlikely but you never know) it jumps up to that 95% number you see on all the simulation playoff prediction sites

 

i feel like the starters are gonna play a half in that game so I’ll average those two ravens win probabilities to try to factor that in somehow lol and that gets us to 86% that we make it. I based the win percentages on that ESPN fpi thingy.  

 

 

[SF Bills Fan]

We are not losing. Stop stressing. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

First off, I hope (just like everyone else) we beat the brakes off of Miami Sunday night to secure the #2 seed. But, if we do not, then maybe, just maybe, the Steelers do what the Bills did all those years ago and lose to a team's 2nd/3rd string to cost themselves a chance at the Playoffs. We shall see. 

If anyone’s backups can win a game it’s baltimores…they’re as seasoned as anybody..  there’s not enough roster space to start a whole team of backups anyway and Huntley has beaten the Steelers starters a few times in recent history too.  It wouldn’t be terribly shocking if Baltimore won that game especially considering the Steelers are starting a 2nd/3rd string qb themselves 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Gary Marangi said:

I would love to stomp the Jags at home

 

You mean, like, our actual home? Or the “home” that Roger and the NFL gave us in London? You know, the Jags second home.

 

If we had played that home game in our actual home, we’d probably be sitting with one more win right now. Yes, it matters Roger.

 

. 

Edited January 2 by Augie

[vanislebills44]

at the time i wanted the big crows to dismantle the 40whiners, in hindsight...teams with nothing to play for aint gonna risk big time injuries...

any which way, its time for the bills mafia to take over miami n the bills 2 beat the sushi outta flipper...LET GOOOO BUFFALOOO!!

[chongli]

2 hours ago, Cvanvol7 said:

Doing some AI questioning today because I feel like this fact continues to be mentioned but glossed over. Is this actually right? It looks like it is almost statistically impossible for a team to get into the situation the bills possibly face on Sunday.

 

This terrifies me as it seems incredibly cursed for us to find the team facing this.......

 

 

This is what AI told me:

 

"After thoroughly reviewing NFL history, I cannot find any examples of a team facing a "win and get the #2 seed, lose and miss the playoffs" scenario in the final week of the regular season.

The closest situations I could find are:

2008 Buccaneers: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs

2011 Cowboys: Win and get NFC #4 seed, lose and miss playoffs

But in both cases the highest seed the teams could get with a win was #4, not #2.

Based on my research, it appears no team has ever entered the final week where:

A win would clinch the #2 seed in their conference

A loss would eliminate them from the playoffs entirely

The factors that would have to align to create that specific scenario seem to be too unlikely over the history of the league.

So in summary, while teams have faced "win and in, lose and out" situations before, I could not find an instance where the specific seeding at stake was the #2 seed versus missing the playoffs completely. Please let me know if I'm missing any historical examples, but I believe your original assumption is correct - that scenario has likely never occurred in the NFL's regular season finale."

 

 

 

 

Nothing historical.

 

Also, Bills in 1980 entering final week could have been 2 or out of the playoffs, but got 3.

[Cvanvol7]

9 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

 

 

 

Nothing historical.

 

Also, Bills in 1980 entering final week could have been 2 or out of the playoffs, but got 3.

 

 

I think you are misunderstanding it a bit. All of those team could have been, none of them would have been. We WILL be 2 with a win.