Some hard choices for Beane on the D-Line

[Brandon]

6 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

we need to pray von gets healthy in the offseason and returns to form. 

 

I'd be trying to find a way out of his contract and also that of Tre White during this off-season.  

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

I'd be trying to find a way out of his contract and also that of Tre White during this off-season.  

Ya know it’ll be interesting if Buffalo finally winning the Super Bowl (and without them) would enter into these players’ decisions to void their contracts in lieu of holding the future roster hostage. 

Edited January 2 by SoCal Deek

[PBF81]

The thread is about the DL, but given how inconsistent our offense is, Beane's greater concern and focus should be on probing into why and then making the associated corrections there before he does anything else.  

 

Enough time and energy had been spent on the D in his six years here.  

 

Unless that D wins us a Championship, and to date it's been what has prevented one in the playoffs ...  

 

JMO 

 

 

Edited January 2 by PBF81

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

31 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Better yet...this week.  Unlikely, but still possible.  He flashed a few times against KC 

Its really strange seemed like once his knee brace came off he had two pretty good games and was ramping up but then he was awful against the chargers 

[KingBoots8]

I have a feeling DaQuon might stay here. Buffalo is closest to his home in the Southern Tier and the team seems to be a good fit. I can’t say much but I work in the same building as a family member of his and she says he loves it here. I *might* have known he was coming back a few days before it was public but was sworn to secrecy.

 

Beane will likely have to make a choice between Floyd and AJE. One is great but getting older, the other is having a solid contract year. Both are great this season, but the risk/reward is hard to gauge.
 

Rousseau will get his 5th year option worst case scenario. I am confident once we can shake some old contracts we can get him paid.

 

Like it or not we are paying for Von next year, so we have to hope he is back to his normal standard of playing. Not getting out of his contract until after next season to minimize his cap hit.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Its really strange seemed like once his knee brace came off he had two pretty good games and was ramping up but then he was awful against the chargers 

Guessing that being arrested had some effect on him. 

Maybe a week inactive is just what was needed to hit the restart button?

sure would be nice to see the Von from last season pre injury 

[SCBills]

51 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

I thought Vons contract had an easy out after 2 years?

 

We restructured him, so we can cut him post 6/1 and manage his cap hit, but more than likely he's a Bill next year and then we can reasonably move off him the following year.  

[aristocrat]

46 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

I'd be trying to find a way out of his contract and also that of Tre White during this off-season.  

 

add dawson knox to that list. i think von can actually get back to form. tre maybe could as he seems to be spending his time at the achilles factory and has a lot of time to rehab before next year. 

[TFBillsfan]

4 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Yeh I mean I can get behind that. The awesome thing is that the Douglas trade got us a corner. Benford, Douglas and Johnson. Tre White will likely be cut. 
 

Our LB’s are set with Milano and Bernard. We will need a safety and another DL. 
 

Draft will have to prioritize WR first and then go get our DL/S. I’m super confident Beane and McD can find a S in the later rounds. They have a history of drafting and/or identifying studs in the secondary 

Agree WR, DL and Safety in that order are the highest priorities. They must resign Rasul. I do think they resign Jones. He’s been hurt for most of the season so I would think that may impact his value. 
 

I have no clue what they do with Von but do we really expect next season he’s going to be more than a serviceable pass rusher? That’s  a lot of money that could be better used elsewhere with a greater impact.

[HOUSE]

I have the perfect solution,  WIN the Superbowl than waive and fire everyone ..

See ya

 

 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Von I laid out in another thread the other day. Cutting him costs us $17m more than they likely originally planned. But it also saves us $7m against the cap in 2024 and he was just a healthy scratch. I think he is gone.

 

 

I wonder if they would consider approaching Von about a pay cut? Given his play this year, his age, and his recent legal troubles, he does not have a lot of leverage in that scenario. If he doesn't want to take the pay cut let him go.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Greg Rousseau was a first rounder so there is the 5th year option too. The Bills will pick that up this summer and likely extend him after 2024. 

 

On some of the others - I think AJ is gone. He will have a bigger market than most expect unless one of Brian Burns or Josh Allen sneaks through to FA.

 

But conversly I don't see a big market for Daquan Jones. He has always been a good player and his previous two tries at FA have left him with a pretty modest contract. And now he is a 32 year old coming off a torn pec. If the Bills want him back that is an easy deal to do. The question becomes how comfortable are they with where he is at physically to commit money to him again. 

 

Similary on Leonard Floyd. He might have a bit more of a market than he had last year. He has a had a very good season. But there is a reason he was out there for the Bills to sign in the second wave of FA and again he turns 32 as next season begins. It is worth saying on Floyd as well that while his sack number is up on his final two years in LA his pressures were actually down. Now there is two ways to look at that - you can say well his overall snaps are down and maybe he is converting pressures to sacks at a better rate because he is fresher. That is one theory. The other is that his high conversion rate is a bit of an anomoly that won't hold. I'd be inclined to bring him back though. He and Epenese have been by far our most productive pass rushers off the edge and to lose both would leave us thin. 

 

Von I laid out in another thread the other day. Cutting him costs us $17m more than they likely originally planned. But it also saves us $7m against the cap in 2024 and he was just a healthy scratch. I think he is gone.

 

 

 

How did you come up with that number for Von?    

 

He has almost $11M of his $17M base salary already guaranteed for next season in addition to his unamortized bonuses and restructure payments.  

 

Even with a June 1 designation I don't see them saving any money against the cap in 2024.

 

I pretty much assume he's a Bill in 2024 unless some legal scenario emerges that allows them to get out of his deal cheaper.

[DapperCam]

If Von Miller is indeed washed, then the Bills have 2 starting defensive lineman signed for next season: Rousseau and Oliver.

 

Cap space is extremely tight, and we will also have issues at other positions (like having no WR2 when Gabe walks, and possibly having no safeties signed if Poyer retires).

 

This is going to be a mini-rebuild/retool/reset type year for the Bills. The goal should be making the playoffs, not necessarily being a top contender. McDermott will have to really earn his paycheck with subpar personnel on defense.

[Steptide]

They should go defense rounds 1-4 in the draft 😉

[TFBillsfan]

Beane will likely need to hit on three starters in this upcoming draft based upon our current salary cap limitations.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

How did you come up with that number for Von?    

 

He has almost $11M of his $17M base salary already guaranteed for next season in addition to his unamortized bonuses and restructure payments.  

 

Even with a June 1 designation I don't see them saving any money against the cap in 2024.

 

I pretty much assume he's a Bill in 2024 unless some legal scenario emerges that allows them to get out of his deal cheaper.

 

Spotrac - they make a post 1 June designation:

 

POST-6/1 RELEASE

2024 Dead Cap: $17,084,000

2025 Dead Cap: $15,417,000

2024 Cap Savings: $6,790,000

 

It is basically the remaining $6.4m of the base salary that doesn't guarantee until the 5th day of the league year, plus the roster bonus and workout bonuses for a few hundred grand. Gets you to the $6.79m - I said $7m for shorthand. 

 

And my point in the other thread is that they were always planning it to be a 3 year deal in real terms so they must be planning for the $15.4m in dead money in any event (although in an ideal world with the ability to spread that hit over 2025 and 2026). So the question is are you willing to eat all of that dead cap in 2025, plus a chunk of dead cap you hadn't planned for in 2024, in order to save yourself $7m against the cap compared to if he stayed on the roster. And given they are making him a healthy scratch now I gotta suspect it is trending towards "yes". 

[HappyDays]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

How did you come up with that number for Von?    

 

He has almost $11M of his $17M base salary already guaranteed for next season in addition to his unamortized bonuses and restructure payments.  

 

Even with a June 1 designation I don't see them saving any money against the cap in 2024.

 

I pretty much assume he's a Bill in 2024 unless some legal scenario emerges that allows them to get out of his deal cheaper.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/

 

Spotrac shows a post June 1 designation release saves us $6.8m against the cap next year, the cap hit going from $23.8m to $17m. Then in 2025 a dead cap hit of $15.4m.

 

I'd like to think after a full offseason Von will be recovered from his ACL, but he'll be 35 in March so we have to accept that it's possible he will never be the same player again.

 

Tough decision. I think the ideal scenario is get him to agree to a pay cut under threat of release and give him a shot to prove himself next year.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/

 

Spotrac shows a post June 1 designation release saves us $6.8m against the cap next year, the cap hit going from $23.8m to $17m. Then in 2025 a dead cap hit of $15.4m.

 

I'd like to think after a full offseason Von will be recovered from his ACL, but he'll be 35 in March so we have to accept that it's possible he will never be the same player again.

 

Tough decision. I think the ideal scenario is get him to agree to a pay cut under threat of release and give him a shot to prove himself next year.

 

They could try and convince him to write off the $6.4m non guaranteed segment of the 2024 salary so that the Bills save the same money but keep him on the roster without him giving up any of the guaranteed money. That is a pretty straightforward option if he is open to it. 

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Yikes. Von is not going anywhere next year with that massive dead cap hit. Let’s just pray he returns at about 80% of what he was. 
 

2025 he’ll be gone. 

If he still saves 7M in cap then they will look at cutting him so that they can get another play (Floyd ??) at that price. 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They could try and convince him to write off the $6.4m non guaranteed segment of the 2024 salary so that the Bills save the same money but keep him on the roster without him giving up any of the guaranteed money. That is a pretty straightforward option if he is open to it. 

This also might make sense..and may be an offseason will help him recover better

[BigAl2526]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They definitely need to draft defensive line. Not an option not to IMO. But I agree their focus on day 1 should be trying to find a wide receiver. 

 

It is really receiver, Dline and safety that are the positions during FA and the draft where they need to find guys. I'd want to draft a young OT too to have something in reserve if Brown ends up walking after 2024.

 

Disagree I think they need to go Dline on day 2. 

 

I think they will get a mid round comp pick for next year for Epenesa. 4th or a 5th. 

I agree that Buffalo needs to address  D-line in the off season.   I'm not sure who will be available in free agency.  As far as the draft is concerned, it's a little early to try and figure out where the Bills will go and when.  A lot of mock drafters are projecting the Bills to take a WR at this point.  I would be happy if they got the right one.  The problem is they may be picking pretty late.  It depends on what kind of run happens on what positions.  There are several WRs I think could be real difference makers for the Bills, but I'm not sure all of those who will go in the first round will be difference makers. 

 

I've seen a few mocks that have Buffalo picking a CB.  From my perspective, this does not look like a great cornerback draft at the top.  I'm hoping that Tre White can come back.  If that happens and Buffalo can retain Benford and Douglas, I think the Bills will be fine at CB.  A few mocks have Buffalo going safety.  There seem to be some decent safety prospects, but none of them strike me as obvious first rounders.  

 

I've also seen a few mocks the project a defensive end to Buffalo.  Defensive end is interesting as there does not seem to be great consensus on the ranking of defensive ends in the draft.  A guy might be top five in one ranking and bottom third in another.  I think that means there's a chance Buffalo could end up with a great value at DE if the right guy drops and Buffalo picks him up. 

 

I've also seen mocks where Buffalo picks an offensive lineman.  I don't see that at all.  I don't think there are any interior offensive linemen worth a first round pick and I don't think the Bills are unhappy with their tackle situation.

 

I haven't seen the Bills pick any other positions in round one.  Of the positions I mentioned above, my best guess is it's likely to come down to WR or defensive end if the Bills are picking in the bottom half of round one.