Can Khalil Shakir be WR2 next season?

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

100 Receptions

1096 yards

8 TDs

 

Yeah he's in decline say's I sarcastically.

 

I do agree though that a new receiver, a 1B receiver would make the Offense much better. Someone who can step into the 1A job when Diggs leaves in a couple years.

look at the second half of the season—his decline is represented well right there.  Fully have of his yards came in 5 games—all before Oct 22. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

100 Receptions

1096 yards

8 TDs

 

Yeah he's in decline say's I sarcastically.

 

I do agree though that a new receiver, a 1B receiver would make the Offense much better. Someone who can step into the 1A job when Diggs leaves in a couple years.

These are Stevie Johnson numbers. Whaaaa

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

then we picked the wrong WR in April....

It would be highly optimistic to think that a rookie WR will immediately rise to #1 , not to mention an unfair expectation of him. The way I see this playing out:

- Davis leaves

- WR is picked in top 2 rounds with the intent of becoming # 1 

- Diggs* transitions to #2 role and stays with the Bills

- Harty and Sherfield are gone

- Shakir is expected to be #3 and will solidify his spot there

- A 30 something WR is picked up to be the #4

 

*I think his decline in production is due to injury and not due to him suddenly hitting a wall. He has very reliable hands and will be a good mentor for a rookie. However, the unknown factor is if Beane asks him to take a paycut - will Diggs agree or pout and leave?

[Rock'em Sock'em]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Diggs contract is hefty and runs through the next three seasons.  The Bills would take a big cap hit if he is gone before the 2027 season.

If cut after the 2024 season, there would be a cap savings of around $5M.  Depending on how 2024 goes, that could happen.

[Maine-iac]

11 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

It would be highly optimistic to think that a rookie WR will immediately rise to #1 , not to mention an unfair expectation of him. The way I see this playing out:

- Davis leaves

- WR is picked in top 2 rounds with the intent of becoming # 1 

- Diggs* transitions to #2 role and stays with the Bills

- Harty and Sherfield are gone

- Shakir is expected to be #3 and will solidify his spot there

- A 30 something WR is picked up to be the #4

 

*I think his decline in production is due to injury and not due to him suddenly hitting a wall. He has very reliable hands and will be a good mentor for a rookie. However, the unknown factor is if Beane asks him to take a paycut - will Diggs agree or pout and leave?

Or we run the offense through Kincaid who starts to put up Kelce numbers and Diggs can slowly decline over a couple seasons and ride off into the sunset

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Or we run the offense through Kincaid who starts to put up Kelce numbers and Diggs can slowly decline over a couple seasons and ride off into the sunset

We need a WR and Kincaid, while having an important part in the offense, cannot be a substitute

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

However, the unknown factor is if Beane asks him to take a paycut - will Diggs agree or pout and leave?

 

So you are saying that you realize Diggs is probably just playing thru an injury that he can rehab from in the offseason.........but think Beane is going to ask him to take a paycut after another 100+ catch 1100+ yard season?    

[NoSaint]

21 hours ago, Kincaid Kool-Aid said:

Only thing that makes me nervous is Beane hasn’t proven to be the best WR talent evaluator. Maybe it’s not all on him and it’s highly possible our carousel of coordinators have been less than stellar in their passing game concepts as well, but outside of grabbing an established talent in Diggs his track record at the position isn’t exactly inspiring 

though he’s used very low resources for the most part 

 

gabe isn’t a reliable two but was a good draft pick, for instance. 
 

mist of his swings have been day 3

[Kincaid Kool-Aid]

31 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

though he’s used very low resources for the most part 

 

gabe isn’t a reliable two but was a good draft pick, for instance. 
 

mist of his swings have been day 3

Fair point. On the flip side, isn’t the lack of premium resources allocated towards arguably the second or third most important position on the team in itself a display of poor judgement at some point?

 

The NFL is clearly now a passing league and has been for some time, so relying on late round picks or cheap journeyman free agent signings and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn’t seem particularly wise if that’s the main strategy. Outside of Diggs obviously and Beasley (at least his first couple years) it’s been pretty much a disaster, although let’s at least hope Shakir continues to develop into a decent #3.

 

To be fair to Beane, not sure how much clout McD has in the draft/free agency process but suspect he has quite a bit of influence. If so, it’s probably more than fair to assume he skews towards adding more high level pieces to the defense given our draft/free agency history, so that could also be a huge factor in the overall lack of WR talent brought in in recent years.

 

To sum up it’s probably a combo of at least 2 of the below 3 things-

 

1. Lack of WR talent evaluation aptitude (Beane)

2. Outsized focus on allocating resources to the D (McD)

3. inability of the OC dujour to develop/utilize receivers effectively 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So you are saying that you realize Diggs is probably just playing thru an injury that he can rehab from in the offseason.........but think Beane is going to ask him to take a paycut after another 100+ catch 1100+ yard season?    

Fair point. 

Ithink the cut could discussed as Diggs will be, what 31 next season? But yea, I agree it will be a tough discussion  

[78thealltimegreat]

Khalil is a natural 3 receiver who has a nice game to him. The number 2 has to be a vertical threat who can gain separation.
The thing is Josh has a little Matt Ryan in him from his prime days he would just constantly heave up balls to Julio Jones and say go get it sometimes it worked sometimes it didn’t.

Josh needs that kind of receiver. 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Fair point. 

Ithink the cut could discussed as Diggs will be, what 31 next season? But yea, I agree it will be a tough discussion  

 

I think if we look at players who are asked to take pay cuts and agree there is usually leverage on the team’s side:

1) no or very low guaranteed money for the upcoming season

2) low or manageable dead money if the player were to be cut

 

In Diggs case, his $18.5M 2024 salary guarantees in March 2024, and the Bills would accrue $31.9M dead cap if they cut him.  

So what would be Diggs motivation to listen to that?

[MrEpsYtown]

Curtis Samuel makes a lot of sense in my opinion. He can play inside and out, runs 4.31. Isn’t huge but isn’t a smurf. He played for Joe Brady under Matt Rhule, and had his most productive season. Brandon Beane also had a hand in drafting him before he came to Buffalo. To me, Samuel is what they need. Ideally they draft a guy who is 6-4 and runs 4.31. But Samuel is probably in that tier right below Higgins etc in terms of free agency. I’m not sure they will go after a Higgins. This team needs speed.  

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

It would be highly optimistic to think that a rookie WR will immediately rise to #1 , not to mention an unfair expectation of him. The way I see this playing out:

- Davis leaves

- WR is picked in top 2 rounds with the intent of becoming # 1 

- Diggs* transitions to #2 role and stays with the Bills

- Harty and Sherfield are gone

- Shakir is expected to be #3 and will solidify his spot there

- A 30 something WR is picked up to be the #4

 

*I think his decline in production is due to injury and not due to him suddenly hitting a wall. He has very reliable hands and will be a good mentor for a rookie. However, the unknown factor is if Beane asks him to take a paycut - will Diggs agree or pout and leave?

 

what injury?

 

Diggs was a 5 star recruit who, after a somewhat underwhelming college career, made an All Rookie team with the Vikings.   The guy who replaced him has been the best WR in the league since day 1.  

 

Look at the top 5 WR this year: Hill,  Lamb, AJ Brown, Nacua, St. Brown---all high were  impact immediately. Same for the next 5 (Aiyuk, Moore, Cooper, Allen, Evans.  Why can't that happen in Buffalo?

 

Problem is that Beane and McD have famously struggled to recognize the need for, or draft, really good WRs. 

 

 

12 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Or we run the offense through Kincaid who starts to put up Kelce numbers and Diggs can slowly decline over a couple seasons and ride off into the sunset

 

 

every young TE wants to "put up" GOAT numbers, lol. it's pretty unlikely.  this Offense won't be running through Kincaid.

9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Curtis Samuel makes a lot of sense in my opinion. He can play inside and out, runs 4.31. Isn’t huge but isn’t a smurf. He played for Joe Brady under Matt Rhule, and had his most productive season. Brandon Beane also had a hand in drafting him before he came to Buffalo. To me, Samuel is what they need. Ideally they draft a guy who is 6-4 and runs 4.31. But Samuel is probably in that tier right below Higgins etc in terms of free agency. I’m not sure they will go after a Higgins. This team needs speed.  

 

as WR1?

[Maine-iac]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

every young TE wants to "put up" GOAT numbers, lol. it's pretty unlikely.  this Offense won't be running through Kincaid.

I wasn't being serious. 

Edited January 3 by Maine-iac

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I wasn't being serious. 

 

more than one poster here believes this though lol

[MrEpsYtown]

36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

as WR1?

 

Nah WR2, a Gabe Davis replacement...I don't think we can find a WR1 in free agency. Diggs is 1, Samuel 2, Shakir 3...hopefully, they draft a premium WR somehow who could push that pecking order down. 

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

what injury?

 

Diggs was a 5 star recruit who, after a somewhat underwhelming college career, made an All Rookie team with the Vikings.   The guy who replaced him has been the best WR in the league since day 1.  

 

Look at the top 5 WR this year: Hill,  Lamb, AJ Brown, Nacua, St. Brown---all high were  impact immediately. Same for the next 5 (Aiyuk, Moore, Cooper, Allen, Evans.  Why can't that happen in Buffalo?

 

Problem is that Beane and McD have famously struggled to recognize the need for, or draft, really good WRs. 

 

 

Your response is going in multiple directions so let comment:

- Injury: Looking at his performance before and after end-October leads me to believe he is nursing and playing through an injury. A person of his skills doesnt lose it seemingly overnight. He has been our best receiver prior to it, has good hands, makes tough catches and gets adequate separation. 

- Yes, he may not be a top 5 receiver in the league but he fits the Bills offense. Our goal should be to spread the ball around and if he is consistently delivering 1000+ yard seasons, I want to stick with him till his skills really decline.

- Agreed that Beane has not handled the draft well when it comes to WRs

 

I know you like Davis but let the recent performance by Diggs not cloud your judgment. Diggs has been by far the more consistent player for the Bills prior to October

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think if we look at players who are asked to take pay cuts and agree there is usually leverage on the team’s side:

1) no or very low guaranteed money for the upcoming season

2) low or manageable dead money if the player were to be cut

 

In Diggs case, his $18.5M 2024 salary guarantees in March 2024, and the Bills would accrue $31.9M dead cap if they cut him.  

So what would be Diggs motivation to listen to that?

See my response to WEO and to BADOL - i Understand it is weak case to ask for a paycut but it depends on the extent to which injury has affected his play lately. And, I certainly do not want to cut or trade him. 

[Beck Water]

19 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

See my response to WEO and to BADOL - i Understand it is weak case to ask for a paycut but it depends on the extent to which injury has affected his play lately. And, I certainly do not want to cut or trade him. 

 

Apologies, but I'm not going to wade through the thread to find it.

 

It really doesn't depend upon the "extent to which injury has affected his play lately".  No NFL player's agent worth his salt is going to acknowledge a falloff in skill on the part of his player when many other things can legit contribute - offensive scheme, quality of pass protection, usage, inaccurate throws from the QB.

 

Diggs is currently a top-10 receiver in the league for receptions.  His agents will argue he can't control how he is being used (all those stupid screens that don't work) or the accuracy of his QB's throws.  They're not gonna go with "hey, he's being paid like a #5 but producing like a #15 for yards so sure, we'll take a salary cut we don't have to take".

Edited January 3 by Beck Water

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Nah WR2, a Gabe Davis replacement...I don't think we can find a WR1 in free agency. Diggs is 1, Samuel 2, Shakir 3...hopefully, they draft a premium WR somehow who could push that pecking order down. 

 

Davis at 4 seasons has only 600 fewer yards, more TDs than Samuel at 7.   He'[s had one career season over 700 yards.  Davis has had 2 in 4. 

 

The guy isn't in any way an upgrade over Davis. He's not even an upgrade over Shakir.  

 

This would be the typical dumb Bills WR off-season WR move: nearly dead Beasley/John Brown, Crowder, Sanders, Andre Roberts, Duke Williams, Kelvin Benjamin..

 

Just an endless stream of bums passing though.  no thanks

 

13 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Your response is going in multiple directions so let comment:

- Injury: Looking at his performance before and after end-October leads me to believe he is nursing and playing through an injury. A person of his skills doesnt lose it seemingly overnight. He has been our best receiver prior to it, has good hands, makes tough catches and gets adequate separation. 

- Yes, he may not be a top 5 receiver in the league but he fits the Bills offense. Our goal should be to spread the ball around and if he is consistently delivering 1000+ yard seasons, I want to stick with him till his skills really decline.

- Agreed that Beane has not handled the draft well when it comes to WRs

 

I know you like Davis but let the recent performance by Diggs not cloud your judgment. Diggs has been by far the more consistent player for the Bills prior to October

See my response to WEO and to BADOL - i Understand it is weak case to ask for a paycut but it depends on the extent to which injury has affected his play lately. And, I certainly do not want to cut or trade him. 

 

I know it's popular around here to invent or postulate injuries for when players start to hit the tank, but you're making that up. McD denied this was the case just yesterday when directly asked. 

 

Davis and Diggs can be evaluated and discussed separately---and Diggs performance since mid-October is what it is, it can't be "clouded" by thoughts about the performance of another receiver.  It's a huge issue that everyone is talking about.