The 1 scenario that eliminates the Bills next week

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Estro said:

I was going to mention that in my post. The 3 leg parlay (moneyline)

Dolphins, Steelers, Jaguars pays +476

If we all bet it Vegas will wanna make sure we get in. That’s how it works right?

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

If you were to let me pick one coach in the NFL that would have their team prepped and ready to play the spoiler against a divisional rival it would be a toss up between Dan Campbell and Mike Vrabel.

 

I dislike Vrabel, but his signature as a coach is getting his team to play hard. I think they could pull an upset. Also, would be a great way for former Buffalo Bills legend DHop to contribute to the teams 2023 success. A real full circle moment.

I could see harbaugh coming hard next week too. But also just beat miami

[Thrivefourfive]

6 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

We’ll know the deal before they take the field Sunday night. 

There really is no deal. After all that’s happened this year they’ll be in a win or go home mentality even if #2 or #3 happens. A 2 seen is nice regular season present to earn for these guys. 

[zow2]

The Ravens are not laying down at home to Pittsburgh. Plus Baltimore’s backups and QB have played important snaps this season and last season. The Steelers will have their hands full.  Harbaugh knows they can’t lay down like dogs for 2 weeks then flip a switch and turn it back on.

 

[stinky finger]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

You got a week to find a keg to cope

I’ll have leftovers from tonight 

[Dr.Sack]

I like our chances down in Miami. If we lose we will have just lost to the team that got dog walked in Baltimore, and scrapped to beat a Dallas team we blew out. We beat a more healthy Miami team 48-20 14 weeks ago. This is a team asking to get blown out. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:

If we all bet it Vegas will wanna make sure we get in. That’s how it works right?

I could see harbaugh coming hard next week too. But also just beat miami

[stinky finger]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Let’s not forget, Miami is already in the playoffs no matter what happens next week, and they are very banged up.  Not saying they won’t be trying to win, but the game probably won’t mean as much to them.

Excellent point

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

Looks like I blue myself. 

[Thrivefourfive]

I feel like Miami is so soft and weak they’re better off lying to themselves and conceding next week to “rest up” for the playoffs. Imagine if they put it all on the line this week — mentally, emotionally, physically against the Bills and get torched again — their morale wouldn’t be any lower going into the tourney. 

[Einstein]

Just win and get in.

[zow2]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I feel like Miami is so soft and weak they’re better off lying to themselves and conceding next week to “rest up” for the playoffs. Imagine if they put it all on the line this week — mentally, emotionally, physically against the Bills and get torched again — their morale wouldn’t be any lower going into the tourney. 

 

If Buf wins, I actually think Miami would beat KC in their rematch even at Arrowhead.  If the Bills lose and still back into the playoffs, i think we’d play Miami again.  I don’t think the Phins wants back to back Allen games.  Will be a crazy day next weekend.

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

If Buf wins, I actually think Miami would beat KC in their rematch even at Arrowhead.  If the Bills lose and still back into the playoffs, i think we’d play Miami again.  I don’t think the Phins wants back to back Allen games.  Will be a crazy day next weekend.

Def could see Miami winning that game but def know I would want to watch that game.

[Billznut]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

If you were to let me pick one coach in the NFL that would have their team prepped and ready to play the spoiler against a divisional rival it would be a toss up between Dan Campbell and Mike Vrabel.

 

I dislike Vrabel, but his signature as a coach is getting his team to play hard. I think they could pull an upset. Also, would be a great way for former Buffalo Bills legend DHop to contribute to the teams 2023 success. A real full circle moment.

Tannehill will be the QB.  He is beyond washed. Not sure the Titans won more than one game with him as starter this year. Their next games were with Levis as starter. I’d place zero hopes on the Titans doing anything. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

Let’s not forget, Miami is already in the playoffs no matter what happens next week, and they are very banged up.  Not saying they won’t be trying to win, but the game probably won’t mean as much to them.

 

difference between the #2 seed and the 5th or 6th seed and playing on the road pretty much every game for Miami so yes a lot going for them to win.  Haven't even seen if Miami loses, do they end up with 5th or 6th seed?

 

If Bengals still had shot could see Cleveland not playing starters as not much difference for them between 5th and 6th seed, but big difference here for Miami.

Edited January 1 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Dablitzkrieg]

14 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

If we all bet it Vegas will wanna make sure we get in. That’s how it works right?

I could see harbaugh coming hard next week too. But also just beat miami

Pause

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

difference between the #2 seed and the 5th or 6th seed and playing on the road pretty much every game for Miami so yes a lot going for them to win.  Haven't even seen if Miami loses, do they end up with 5th or 6th seed?

 

If Bengals still had shot could see Cleveland not playing starters as not much difference for them between 5th and 6th seed, but big difference here for Miami.

Being the 5th seed and playing the AFC South winner… versus 6th seed and going to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead is big enough reason to play starters in my view … if this is actually a possibility for the Browns that they can finish 6th with a loss

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1 by Aussie Joe

[Dr.Sack]

6 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

If Buf wins, I actually think Miami would beat KC in their rematch even at Arrowhead.  If the Bills lose and still back into the playoffs, i think we’d play Miami again.  I don’t think the Phins wants back to back Allen games.  Will be a crazy day next weekend.

I see the Ravens backups and assuming a few starters on the lines could do to the Steelers what the Steelers did to us at the end of the 2004 season. Unknowns like Willie Parker and James Harrison beat our starters in Buffalo. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

26 minutes ago, Estro said:

I was going to mention that in my post. The 3 leg parlay (moneyline)

Dolphins, Steelers, Jaguars pays +462

 

I know some sites have the Bills implied playoff odds at 95% or so l, but according to Vegas lines we now know that number is too high.

 

True odds are about 85%.....long way of saying if the Bills don't win, hold on tight

Yea I think the nyt playoff simulator isn’t factoring in Baltimore playing starters for a half or more.  Still like the ravens chances though tbh

Edited January 1 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JohnNord]

35 minutes ago, Estro said:

1) Bills lose @ Dolphins

- current line Bills -3

 

2) Titans lose vs. Jaguars

- current line Titans +3.5

 

3) Ravens lose vs. Steelers

- current line Ravens +3.5

 

So what that last line shows you is the Ravens will be resting starters with the #1 seed locked up. I have little to no faith in the Titans......so I really think the Bills could entirely miss the playoffs if they don't get the W in Miami.

 

Next week could very well be the #2 seed with a win and missing the playoffs entirely with a loss. Crazy!

The Bills always marched up well against Miami.  Even more now with their injuries and Buffalo coming in relatively healthy.  It’s all in front of them.  If they are going to make noise, they need to win big games like this 

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

difference between the #2 seed and the 5th or 6th seed and playing on the road pretty much every game for Miami so yes a lot going for them to win.  Haven't even seen if Miami loses, do they end up with 5th or 6th seed?

 

If Bengals still had shot could see Cleveland not playing starters as not much difference for them between 5th and 6th seed, but big difference here for Miami.

Yes, there’s a big difference for Miami, but not like for the Bills, who likely have to win or go home. And as I said, Miami has LOTS of guys hurt who could use a week off.