What's Wrong With The Passing O?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

The nice thing about playing Miami is that we know exactly what they are going to do. We can have any short route we want. Hopefully we just chip away. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

The nice thing about playing Miami is that we know exactly what they are going to do. We can have any short route we want. Hopefully we just chip away. 

hasn’t Allen shredded Vic F. Defenses? Going back to that game in Denver a few years ago

[UKBillFan]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

Again look at the offense of those teams they played.  The Pats and the Chargers offense struggle on offense. You play those games against San Francisco or Baltimore and I'm not so sure they win. 

If the Bills match last season I’d think it a minor miracle as the offense seems to be bottoming out now. I’m concerned about getting passed the likes of the Texans, Steelers and Browns, let alone the Ravens and 49ers.

[Maine-iac]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sorry I forgot to mention I skipped the entire drive leading up to the INT just for time's sake. As far I know the rest of that drive was fine, I just wanted to break down the INT. But I included every other pass before that drive that didn't end with a scramble.

 

 

If you want to complain about the play call I can respect that. Our shot plays have been terrible all year, more likely to end in an INT than a positive play. I didn't feel a need to be aggressive there considering the kind of game this was becoming. Only two guys running routes and both deep, I don't get it.

 

But for the play itself I genuinely believe Allen executed it like he was supposed to. As soon as Austin appears to follow Sherfield on the post route, he has Kincaid in single coverage on the shot play. That's exactly the look they wanted. If you have a chance to watch the all 22 of that play you'll see what I mean. Austin spins away from Sherfield as soon as Allen is releasing the ball, it's uncanny. Like at the exact right moment he diagnosed where the ball would be and got himself in position to pick it off.

I haven't seen the all 22 but that play was shown a number of times.  Kincaid wasn't out running anyone and he was well covered even without the second guy going back and picking it off.  Looks like (on my dvr not All 22) if he hits Johnson early leaking out of the back field he could have picked up some yards.  That wouldn't be as sexy as a bomb to Kincaid but that pass to Kincaid was never going to happen.  Two plays before he has a great throw to Kincaid and then he kind of dirts one to Shakir but he picks it off the ground.  He might have had something going if he just kept moving the chains.  When it happens every single game it's kind of a thing.

Edited January 2 by Maine-iac

[SlamnSam]

On 12/31/2023 at 5:26 PM, BlazinBill said:

We just need weapons- we keep swinging and missing with mediocre players based off salary cap - need to draft talent period - just need to make sure we hit on that talent

Yep Beane keeps missing. The problem is the O line. Every team we play the QBs have all day to look for outlets. Josh has 0.32 before two monsters are on him from the other team while the O line watch.

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I haven't seen the all 22 but that play was shown a number of times.  Kincaid wasn't out running anyone and he was well covered even without the second guy going back and picking it off.

 

Trust me, Kincaid is extremely open. He has like two steps on his guy. If anything you could say Allen underthrew it a bit but either way Kincaid is in single coverage and has a strong chance of completing the catch or drawing a DPI. That all assumes that Austin stays with Sherfield which of course does not happen.

 

If after watching the all-22 you think Allen should have checked it down to the RB for a couple yards, then you'll never want him attempting any vertical shot in any situation unless it's a totally blown coverage. And if you believe that, that's fine. I myself have said I would like us to remove these designed shot plays from our playbook. But as far as executing the play Allen made the right read and threw the ball where he was supposed to. The play call was aggressive, not the throw.

[HappyDays]

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

[Maine-iac]

 

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

I'm not sure even without 28 coming over that Kincaid was out running 30 to the ball.  Maybe it's just because Allen under threw it again but 30 was there in coverage when the ball came down and 28 was in front of both of them to intercept it.  All 22 only confirms my original idea that if Allen leads the back as he sneaks out of the back field he's going to run for 15 yards before anyone gets to him.

 

Went and looked at the -4 yard swing pass to Cook later in the game and that's again because the swing pass is too late and too wide and gives the one defender time to get by the one blocker (Gilliam I think).  Allen swings that pass quicker and tighter and Cook runs right by the defender.  I'm not going to totally blame Allen (he's been better of late) but as a team we are one of the worst at getting the backs into passing game.  Both plays are horrible execution where seemingly plays are available.

[Maine-iac]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

Johnson sneaking out with a LB late covering.  You can see him after the LB peels to cover him in your picture but Allen missed it at this point.  My picture shows him leaving the backfield and looking for the ball that wasn't coming.

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I'm not sure even without 28 coming over that Kincaid was out running 30 to the ball.

 

That isn't how Allen can think about the play though. His job is to throw that pass if Kincaid has a step on his man and Austin follows the post.

 

Like I said I am not a fan of this play call in this moment. Still Allen is just executing the play call. It sounds like you just prefer check downs over vertical shots in general because it really doesn't get more open than that.

 

Allen did underthrow the ball, I won't argue that. I think in situations like that where the intended receiver has room to spare QBs tend to cheat towards underthrowing it a bit instead of risking an overthrow. Give Kincaid a chance to make a play or make it almost impossible for the DB to break it up without committing DPI.

 

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Johnson sneaking out with a LB late covering.  You can see him after the LB peels to cover him in your picture but Allen missed it at this point.  My picture shows him leaving the backfield and looking for the ball that wasn't coming.

 

Allen didn't miss anything. Johnson is there as a check down if both downfield routes are covered up. From Allen's perspective that was not the case so he took the shot.

 

It seems like you just want the RBs to be more involved as pass catchers and that's fine, but don't let that impact the analysis of Allen's process on this play in particular. To me it's a greedy play call that features poor route spacing, poor salesmanship from Sherfield, and an underthrow from Allen. I have no issues with Allen's decision making here.

[Maine-iac]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That isn't how Allen can think about the play though. His job is to throw that pass if Kincaid has a step on his man and Austin follows the post.

 

Like I said I am not a fan of this play call in this moment. Still Allen is just executing the play call. It sounds like you just prefer check downs over vertical shots in general because it really doesn't get more open than that.

 

Allen did underthrow the ball, I won't argue that. I think in situations like that where the intended receiver has room to spare QBs tend to cheat towards underthrowing it a bit instead of risking an overthrow. Give Kincaid a chance to make a play or make it almost impossible for the DB to break it up without committing DPI.

 

 

Allen didn't miss anything. Johnson is there as a check down if both downfield routes are covered up. From Allen's perspective that was not the case so he took the shot.

 

It seems like you just want the RBs to be more involved as pass catchers and that's fine, but don't let that impact the analysis of Allen's process on this play in particular. To me it's a greedy play call that features poor route spacing, poor salesmanship from Sherfield, and an underthrow from Allen. I have no issues with Allen's decision making here.

You are right Kincaid had a step and I guess that justifies the throw.  The unfortunate part is that only leads to the conclusion that Allen has become really bad at hitting anyone down field.  He's badly missing deep throws most of the time.  Mostly short.  If he overthrows that pass I'm not sure even a second guy gets the pick there.  The pick was easy because it was so underthrown.

Edited January 2 by Maine-iac

[HappyDays]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

You are right Kincaid had a step and I guess that justifies the throw to some.  The unfortunate part is that only leads to the conclusion that Allen has become really bad at hitting anyone down field.  He's badly missing deep throws most of the time.  Mostly short.  If he overthrows that pass I'm not sure even a second guy gets the pick there.  The pick was easy because it was so underthrown.

 

Most completed deep passes that I see across the NFL are underthrown. It's not the norm that you see one like that perfectly dropped in the bucket and allowing the pass catcher to coast into the endzone. It happens but it's low percentage unless it's someone like Tyreek Hill where it's practically impossible to overthrow them so you can be more loose with the depth of the throw. Typically completed deep passes involve the intended receiver slowing down or completely stopping and making a play at the catch point because they've given themselves enough space to gain leverage.

 

I really do think that if Austin hadn't broken back towards Kincaid it would have been either a completed pass or a DPI. It's almost impossible for a DB two steps behind his man and with his back to the QB to disrupt that pass without committing DPI.

[BuffaloRebound]

Seems like Josh doesn’t have his fastball, which might also explain the general indecision.  Let’s hope he’s letting it rip on sunday.  

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

Kurt Warner has mentioned this about buffalo. Spacing and braking off routes too soon is an issue. 

[Dr.Sack]

I am wondering if this might be a vision issue. Josh might need glasses. I am reminded of Wild Thing Ricky Vaughn. Let the kid rip it. 

[Maine-iac]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Most completed deep passes that I see across the NFL are underthrown. It's not the norm that you see one like that perfectly dropped in the bucket and allowing the pass catcher to coast into the endzone. It happens but it's low percentage unless it's someone like Tyreek Hill where it's practically impossible to overthrow them so you can be more loose with the depth of the throw. Typically completed deep passes involve the intended receiver slowing down or completely stopping and making a play at the catch point because they've given themselves enough space to gain leverage.

 

I really do think that if Austin hadn't broken back towards Kincaid it would have been either a completed pass or a DPI. It's almost impossible for a DB two steps behind his man and with his back to the QB to disrupt that pass without committing DPI.

I just don't see the throw.  Kincaid isn't fast enough (step or not) to out run a corner down the field and 28 was already breaking on it before Allen threw it.  I do know a rb covered by a DT is a huge mismatch and I'll continue to say that's my play all day.  At the very least if you are going to heave it up there to someone who's only advantage is their size you better get it to them so they can jump for it and not leave it 5 yards short.  Long and short of it I'm sick of the turnovers.  That's probably why I like Brady running the ball.  If you can't play a game with a lead against a toothless offense without turning it over you are just asking to lose winnable games.  Thank god NE's kicker sucks.

[GoBills808]

We don't have a single pass catcher who is top10 at his respective position

 

That's what's wrong w the pass offense

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Stating the obvious but it creates a two fold problem.  One is that Diggs isn't getting open and 2 is that Allen is not looking at the guys who are getting open waiting on Diggs.  Hopefully Diggs is just nicked up and will return to some form of himself soon or Allen comes off him a little quicker in progressions.

I’m trying to understand this Diggs is hurt narrative that has started. 

On 12/31/2023 at 7:03 PM, HappyDays said:

We came into the season knowing that we didn't have a #2 WR on the roster. Now it turns out we don't have a true #1 either. We have no speed, no YAC ability, below average separation and catch ability from our WR corps. That's why our passing offense has looked so inconsistent, there is zero margin for error.

Yes, Kincaid was the only real talent the Bills added in the off-season and we’ve seen how that has turned out this season.

Maybe he can build off his 87-yard performance Sunday, but nothing has really carried over in this offense week to week. 
 

Edited January 2 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

@Maine-iac I don't know how to take videos from my phone but I took a screenshot. This is what Allen sees when he starts gearing up to launch the ball:

 

 

#26 is Alex Austin. His back is turned to Kincaid and he is following Sherfield's post route. I assume Austin is Allen's read here.

 

Here's what it looks like the moment the ball is leaving Allen's hands like half a second later:

 

 

Now Austin has totally spun away from Sherfield's route and quickly develops leverage on Kincaid.

 

In fact looking at the play again now I see the middle field safety pointing in Kincaid's direction:

 

 

(sorry for the poor quality, I zoomed in but you can kind of make out the safety pointing past Sherfield towards Kincaid)

 

So now I am positive the safety told Austin where the ball was going and directed him back to Kincaid at the exact right moment.

 

In real time you can see Sherfield not putting full effort into his route. If he was really selling it he would be a few yards further to the right and would have likely drawn Austin with him. Instead the spacing on the routes is a tad too close and the DBs back there are able to read the play in time to impact it.

 

Also - they only rush 3 here on this 1st and 15

 

Allen has problems when 8 guys are in coverage - most QBs do.  
 

But look at the Pats zone discipline they are truly covering every blade of grass.  
 

A run here probably gets you 5 plus but BB handed it to Brady all day confident on this play we were throwing.  

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’m trying to understand this Diggs is hurt narrative that has started. 

Playing barely 50% of offensive snaps over last 3 games will do it