Bills!Win! Posted January 6 Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses 1 Quote
Dr. Who Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Bills!Win! said: what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses They're not talking about it, because the likelihood of a tie is about the same as flipping a coin and having it land on its side. 3 1 1 Quote
Andrew Son Posted January 6 Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. Yeah, if you play with the simulator it’s junk. If I select Bills and Titans losing it still gives the Bills an 85% chance of making the playoffs. Which obviously makes little sense since PIT is actually favored. Quote
longtimebillsfan Posted January 6 Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Pete said: My Thurman jersey is retired on game days due to Super Bowl losses and many important games the Bills lost, due to me wearing that jersey. I’m sorry Bills Mafia You are awesome 34! I will buy another 34 jersey. That old jersey had some bad ju ju on gamedays. Thats my long winded answer- Don’t temp fate, pick another jersey. Rasul-Oliver-Bernard-Taron -etc- there are so many great Bills jerseys to choose from Good advise. Quote
NewEra Posted January 6 Posted January 6 (edited) 3 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: They almost don’t look real is right!!! Only 36 TDs in 11 games? I was sure he had over 50 vs miami Edited January 6 by NewEra Quote
YattaOkasan Posted January 6 Posted January 6 46 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said: I have a delema. I haven't worn my Josh jersey for a game since the "13 seconds" playoff game in KC. I am thinking of wearing it Sunday night. Do I dare? I would/will (mines doesn’t have bad juju though). Dude got snubbed from Pro Bowl. I think that disrespect is gonna burn in his belly and he’s gonna have another monster game against the fish. 2 Quote
NewEra Posted January 6 Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, Pete said: My Thurman jersey is retired on game days due to Super Bowl losses and many important games the Bills lost, due to me wearing that jersey. I’m sorry Bills Mafia You are awesome 34! I will buy another 34 jersey. That old jersey had some bad ju ju on gamedays. Thats my long winded answer- Don’t temp fate, pick another jersey. Rasul-Oliver-Bernard-Taron -etc- there are so many great Bills jerseys to choose from Don’t forget the custom made #11 Sharty jersey compliments of @BADOLBILZ Quote
Scott7975 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said: what nobody is talking about is if the Steelers tie, or the jaguars tie, or the bills tie. The bills will make it. It doesn’t just have to be losses Because a tie almost never happens. Quote
Chandler#81 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 12 hours ago, Beck Water said: That security guard looks ready to go to the mat with your son He had to do something! His team was getting crushed -again- and the opponent has a flamboyant patron stealing their thunder 1 Quote
RiotAct Posted January 6 Posted January 6 32 minutes ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. we only need one of three events to “fire” in order to make the dance. I figure we have about a 60% chance to beat a hobbled Fish team, and put the Steelers-Ravens game at close to 50-50. So, 82% sounds about right (Titans beating Jags is a bit of a longshot). Quote
Andrew Son Posted January 6 Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, RiotAct said: we only need one of three events to “fire” in order to make the dance. I figure we have about a 60% chance to beat a hobbled Fish team, and put the Steelers-Ravens game at close to 50-50. So, 82% sounds about right (Titans beating Jags is a bit of a longshot). Even the Titans are only 3.5 point dogs. Calculating the % based on the disqualifying three leg parlay is the best method, IMO. 2 1 1 Quote
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted January 6 Posted January 6 41 minutes ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss). Quote
Behindenemylines Posted January 6 Posted January 6 17 hours ago, Blank Stare said: Go Tanny! Never thought I’d be rooting for Tannehill to be good. 2 1 2 Quote
TheWei44 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Ravens and Titans are 3 to 4 point dogs - So assume each has 30% chance of winning and give Bills 60% chance on Sunday night. Then the probability of all three "bad" events occurring is (70%)*(70%)*(40%) = 19.6%. So those estimates imply 80% chance Bills get into playoffs one way or another. 1 Quote
julian Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. The NYT calculator isn’t factoring the scaredy cat Bills fans, it’s not even factoring in Allen’s massive tea bagging of the Dolphins collective chins over his career, seems to be a useless tool of entertainment and not a legitimate predictor of outcomes. Quote
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Sounds like Waddle is playing now and the line has moved in Miami's direction. 1 Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, fergie's ire said: I find that to be optimistic....probably 60% is about right. I do think they'll make it and I think they'll beat Miami, but beating a playoff team on the road can't be super high odds and I think there's little chance Steelers or Jaguars lose. The NYT calculator probably considers likelihood of Ravens beating Steelers based on their past performances but probably doesn't take into account that Ravens have clinched and won't play many of their starters. Can you show your work to get to 60%? What odds do your give bills to beat the dolphins? Quote
fergie's ire Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Just now, Matt_In_NH said: Can you show your work to get to 60%? What odds do your give bills to beat the dolphins? No hard calculations...just a feel. But probably would put it at 57% to beat dolphins and about 3% for Steelers or Jags to lose. Just don't have any faith that the latter will happen. Quote
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