Is it time to put out an Amber Alert on Dalton Kincaid?

[Thurman#1]

29 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I made it obvious. 
 

If you had a question about my point, you could’ve asked about it, instead of being hyper-aggressive for no reason at all.

 

 

Sorry, but saying that in one sentence and then going on to spray all over the place with Sammy Watkins references and all sorts of other things really does not make it clear that that was your point. Only that that was one of many things you were saying.

 

And again, when you go off in many directions, people are going to reply to all of what you said, not just one sentence of it.

 

If that is the only thing you meant, fine. I find it irrelevant. I only care deeply about whether the guy we picked does well in our system. How LaPorta does is of minor interest to me and has nothing to do with how good a pick Kincaid is, to me. None. If you care, I guess that's your business. I don't. Nor do I find the horrendous Watkins pick (more specifically the awful at first glance trade-up to get the Watkins pick) at all relevant to Kincaid.

 

I guess even mentioning that Watkins disaster pushes my buttons. If I over-reacted, I'm sorry. Did you have to bring that up?

 

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/248654-super-excited-for-this-draft-class/?do=findComment&comment=8491009

 

I link the above post because we are talking about production from Kincaid and my realistic projection for him as a rookie is in that post. I said in summary:

 

"Realistic career arc projection...

 

2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs

 

2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs

 

2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs

 

And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him."

 

So particularly to the bolded let's look at where he is with a game left...

 

64% of the O snaps; 66 receptions (Bills Rookie Record); 589 yards and 2 TDs. 

 

What do we conclude from that.... his overall production is broadly in line with my expectations. While I know it is easy to look at LaPorta's numbers with envy (860 yards and 9 TDs) it is worth saying that Kincaid is comfortably the second most productive rookie tight end (248 yards ahead of 3rd). To put it in further historical context even if Kincaid were shut out next week his current numbers put him 14th all time on the rookie tight end yardage list. It is a position that takes time. 

 

But also I think we conclude his usage has been a little different than some of us expected. The high snap count is no doubt influenced by Dawson Knox spending time on IR but also they have definitely used him more in the short yardage stuff and less on the seam routes than I expected so it is high volume, lower payoff but then maybe we should have been expecting a bit more of that, after all, Beane told us in the post draft presser that he saw him really as the Cole Beasley replacement. They also haven't got him involved in the redzone as much as I'd have liked. I have a bit of a theory there that he isn't a great short redzone option, because he isn't as physical as say Dawson Knox, who before this season had top 3 redzone production at the position the past two seasons, but I think they are missing chances in the high redzone between the 20 and the 10 to get him going underneath and see if he can make a guy miss. 

 

So overall, one game to go, It has been a good rookie season. He is clearly a guy with lots of potential. I'd want to see the kind of jump I was forecasting above in 2024 health permitting.