Pats V Bills Matchup

[PatsFanNH]

Figured I’d give my 2 cents on how the matchups will be like (IMO).

 

BillPass O v Pats Pass D — Bills by a lot! The Pats secondary is a bunch of scrubs off the street with a hurt Jonathan Jones leading them and he is at his best in the slot. The only chance NE has here is if Uche and Baremore have career type days and force Allen into mistakes. 
 

Bills Run O v Pats Run D — Pats, I say this because they have one of the best Run D in the NFL. I expect roughly 4 yards or less a carry…

 

Pats O v Bills D — Pats O is historically BAD! Add in they lost their #1 RB and WR in Bourne and Stevenson and well YIKES! The positive for this sad sack of a group is Zappe looks like a decent backup and Pop Douglas should be a good #2 or #3 in the future. The only way this group will be dangerous is if the Bills D sleep walks through the game and even then the most they could score is 24. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS

 

FG Kickers — Pats rookie has been average to bad… Advantage Bills

 

Punting — Pats have a great punter, he has gotten a ton of work!  lol (even)

 

Special Teams — Pats are jeckyl and Hyde on Special teams this year, some weeks they are very good other times bad. I honestly don’t pay close enough attention to the Bills special teams to know but at best it’s even for the Pats.. 

 

Overall it should be a win for the Bills

 

Bills 21

Pats 10

 

 

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Figured I’d give my 2 cents on how the matchups will be like (IMO).

 

BillPass O v Pats Pass D — Bills by a lot! The Pats secondary is a bunch of scrubs off the street with a hurt Jonathan Jones leading them and he is at his best in the slot. The only chance NE has here is if Uche and Baremore have career type days and force Allen into mistakes. 
 

Bills Run O v Pats Run D — Pats, I say this because they have one of the best Run D in the NFL. I expect roughly 4 yards or less a carry…

 

Pats O v Bills D — Pats O is historically BAD! Add in they lost their #1 RB and WR in Bourne and Stevenson and well YIKES! The positive for this sad sack of a group is Zappe looks like a decent backup and Pop Douglas should be a good #2 or #3 in the future. The only way this group will be dangerous is if the Bills D sleep walks through the game and even then the most they could score is 24. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS

 

FG Kickers — Pats rookie has been average to bad… Advantage Bills

 

Punting — Pats have a great punter, he has gotten a ton of work!  lol (even)

 

Special Teams — Pats are jeckyl and Hyde on Special teams this year, some weeks they are very good other times bad. I honestly don’t pay close enough attention to the Bills special teams to know but at best it’s even for the Pats.. 

 

Overall it should be a win for the Bills

 

Bills 21

Pats 10

 

 

 

 

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

[without a drought]

13 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

He's taken away the punting game before.

[Prospector]

I refuse to give in to ‘the man’, so I don’t post in the stickied Bills Pats thread. I post in the real threads by the people! Bills win by 20, Zappe throws 3 pics and is sacked 5 times. 

[BBFL]

23 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Our kicker punter and special teams are pretty inconsistent if not downright poor this year, unfortunately. Have a feeling Belichick will try to take advantage. 

🤫

[AmishRifle]

12 minutes ago, without a drought said:

He's taken away the punting game before.

This made me laugh out loud.  Although, I think Coach B will bring his A+ coaching game to this one.

[NewEra]

Thanks for the input.  I think you guys are much better than your record suggests based solely on your DL.  They can wreck game plans.

 

[BuffaloBill]

The Bills should be sharp in this one given what is in play.  However, the key will be ball security.  The Bills have been terrible at it in some games. They were lucky to escape LA Chargers with a win given this issue.  The key is Josh not being overly reliant on his arm like he was with the pass to Diggs downfield in LA game that was picked off. Same goes for Cook.  A great back but he must watch second efforts and ball security.

[JerseyBills]

If it was away I'd be concerned,  as I was last week but at home I just don't see their offense doing anything 

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

10 have been one score games. But how many of them did the Patriots score more than 10 points or 15 points? Let's not give them a ton of credit like they are a good team on the wrong side of high scoring one score games. They lost one game 10-6, another 6-0 and another 10-7. I wouldn't give credit for that. Losing games 33-30 is one thing. Losing games 10-6 and saying "well, they were one score games, they aren't that bad" is another. They are a bad team. 

[The BLUES Brothers]

Pats defense doesn't give up a lot of yards, but Buffalo great at home, except when they had 12 men on the field. I can see the path where pats could win but more likely see where Buffalo should prevail the winner in a closer game than most expect - guessing 24-20. Pats secondary is a little banged up so time for Josh to take the short open man/men where both TEs can have a busy day. Will it be Belichick's last game as visiting NE Coach? 

[finn]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

This take makes perfect sense. For that reason, I think the Bills will win in a blowout. With few exceptions, they've confounded conventional wisdom all year, losing to NE, Denver, the Jags and Jets, narrowly beating a lousy Chargers team, and beating good teams (including the Eagles in principle, who were bailed out by the refs, in a pattern that is starting to disgust many fans). 

 

No, they'll either lose or win in a blowout. 

[Don Otreply]

If the team plays to the level they are capable of they win this game handily, I see two to three picks, and five sacks or more. 
 

The guys knowing that their backs are to the wall they will take care of business,

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

10 have been one score games. But how many of them did the Patriots score more than 10 points or 15 points? Let's not give them a ton of credit like they are a good team on the wrong side of high scoring one score games. They lost one game 10-6, another 6-0 and another 10-7. I wouldn't give credit for that. Losing games 33-30 is one thing. Losing games 10-6 and saying "well, they were one score games, they aren't that bad" is another. They are a bad team. 

They have a bad offense and a good defense. Problem is, they run a style -- taking the easy stuff in the middle of the field in the passing game -- that the Bills pass D struggles with. The Bills seem to do much better against defenses with elite receivers and QBs who work the boundaries than against teams that prioritize always taking the easy passes available in a zone D. The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent, and the Pats shredded the Bills zone D in the first game this season. 

 

But yeah, the Bills should win. I just worry it'll be an ugly game.  

 

Honestly, after they got to 2-10, I felt that Belichick owed it to Mr. Kraft to lose out and maximize the chances that they can draft a franchise QB. Belichick isn't going along with that obviously correct strategy, however.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They have a bad offense and a good defense. Problem is, they run a style -- taking the easy stuff in the middle of the field in the passing game -- that the Bills pass D struggles with. The Bills seem to do much better against defenses with elite receivers and QBs who work the boundaries than against teams that prioritize always taking the easy passes available in a zone D. The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent, and the Pats shredded the Bills zone D in the first game this season. 

 

But yeah, the Bills should win. I just worry it'll be an ugly game. 

 

I think some of it will depend on whether Hunter Henry plays. He's the kind of target that would really frustrate our zone defense, I think, especially over the middle. I also would look for a lot of dump offs to the backs either in the flat or over the middle—need Bernard and Dodson to be on their game.

 

[Saxum]

Issue for the Bills will be the weather.  It could be snow or it could be wet and wet is worse.

Bills receivers have had trouble catching balls in wet weather and trouble catching tend to lead to interceptions.

[Success]

If the Pats started Zappe all season, they'd have at least 2-3 more wins, imo.

 

Jones might have more accuracy, but Zappe reminds me of someone like Heinicke.  He's more competitive, and fights harder.  He's also better at improvising and moving around the pocket.

 

 

[Logic]

If there was to be one thing that concerns me against the Pats, it's this:

The Bills have been mostly living off the run game lately. Their WRs have not been getting good separation, and they generally haven't been lighting it up through the air. 

The Pats, meanwhile, have a very good run defense, as you pointed out. If the Bills are unable to run the ball, and the pass game starts out slow -- as it is wont to do at times this year -- then this could be a closer and more anxiety-inducing game then it needs to be.

I still think the Bills ultimately find a way to take care of business at home, but I don't think it's going to be a 37-13 snoozefest or anything. I have the sneaking suspicion the game may be closer than Bills fans would prefer. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[eball]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.  

 

If the Bills had blown out the Chargers I'd feel exactly this way...but because that game was closer than expected I am looking to see a highly motivated Bills team on Sunday afternoon.  I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling...