The not so farfetched way the Bills miss the playoffs

[BBFL]

[LarryMadman]

Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in.

 

Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read.

Edited December 28, 2023 by LarryMadman

[Fan in Chicago]

2 minutes ago, LarryMadman said:

Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in.

 

Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read.

There is a way for us to clinch the playoffs this weekend if we also win, that is correct. It has been posted elsewhere on this forum. But this weekend we cannot clinch by our win alone

Edited December 28, 2023 by Fan in Chicago

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I mean just to be safe we all have to do a $50 parlay right?

[NeverOutNick]

3 hours ago, QB Bills said:

After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks.

 

Week 17

Bills over pats

Colts over Raiders

Jags over Panthers

Texans over Titans

Steelers over Seahawks

 

All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road

 

Week 18

Dolphins over Bills

Jags over Titans

Steelers over Ravens

 

Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. 

 

Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot.

 

And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties.

Definitely more likely that we win and Steelers and bengals lose this weekend and we’re sitting pretty heading into week 18 BUT I would definitely consider doing your scenario parlay for some serious cash just so I make a little money if the world does come crashing down on us lol

 

Think I’ll do a $10 parlay on this just in case now lol

 

Colts ML over Raiders

Jags ML  over Panthers

Texans ML over Titans

Steelers ML over Seahawks

[Matt_In_NH]

13 minutes ago, LarryMadman said:

Except i've read all over the sports outlets saying if the Bills win this week they are in.

 

Is that true, IDK, that's just what i've read.

can you link where  you read this?

[K D]

This is not only possible, it's probable

[stlbills13]

None of those individual results are far-fetched but I just don't see them all happening. But who knows. The Steelers are important but luckily they're playing in Seattle who also needs to win. The Chiefs suck but the Bengals do too and I have to think the Chiefs rebound and win at home this week. I still think the Bills clinch this week. Even the AFC South seems to burning to the ground at this point. The Colts have fluked their way through the season and they're playing a sneaky good/inspired Raiders team. The Texans may get Stroud back but the Titans will always play hard with Vrabel. The Jags are in freefall mode and the Panthers don't have their first round pick so there isn't much tanking going on there. 

 

The Bills control their own destiny and that's all you can ask for. 

 

Miami is very interesting to me. They're starting to get pretty banged up especially on the offensive side of the ball. If they were to lose this week, next week's game is for the division assuming the Bills win. But if you're Miami, what is more important? Winning and getting the 2 seed but risking your already injured players OR resting anyone in doubt and accepting the likely 6 seed but go into the playoffs more healthy? I'm sure they'll take the riskier route but it actually should be a discussion for them.

[Chicken Boo]

I appreciate the leg work.  Good to know.  

[Prospector]

That’s a wrap boys, shut it down til next year!

[JGMcD2]

42 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

This is not only possible, it's probable

If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain.

 

The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? 

Edited December 28, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Two most likely games to go our way this week would be Raiders over Colts and Seahawks over Steelers. Let's at least have one of those two go our way. 

 

Don't we also need the Bengals to lose one still as well? Or are we figuring a 3-way tie at 10-7 eliminates them by conference record? 

 

If we want to win the division, we want Miami to lose to Baltimore. But if we want our best chance just to make the playoffs a Miami win would be better to keep Baltomore from letting up on the gas pedal vs. the Steelers. 

2 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Seems like it hinges on the Steelers. All of the other games seem very probable to have the outcomes he shows (other than Bills vs Fish…that one is a toss up), but having the Steelers win those last two games seems HIGHLY improbable. 😉

 

Raiders are rolling right now. To me they are slight favorites to beat the Colts. 

[Prospector]

20 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain.

 

The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? 

I think he was making a joke based on the original thread title 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said:

I would say 3% if we beat the Patriots. (Actually, that's not me saying it, it's the NY Times Playoff Machine, which is the only remaining valuable contribution of the NY Times to modern society.)

The obituaries are still really good…

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, dma0034 said:

 

 

Bengals have to factor in too. They have Chiefs and Browns. Chiefs are beatable and Browns will have nothing to play for in week 18.

 

If Miami pulls out the win this week against the Ravens then the division and one seed is on the line for both the Browns and Ravens I think in week 18. 

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

Definitely more likely that we win and Steelers and bengals lose this weekend and we’re sitting pretty heading into week 18 BUT I would definitely consider doing your scenario parlay for some serious cash just so I make a little money if the world does come crashing down on us lol

 

Think I’ll do a $10 parlay on this just in case now lol

 

Colts ML over Raiders

Jags ML  over Panthers

Texans ML over Titans

Steelers ML over Seahawks

 

I thank you. My account ran out of money after we beat the Chiefs and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, or I would do this parlay as well. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said:

I would say 3% if we beat the Patriots. (Actually, that's not me saying it, it's the NY Times Playoff Machine, which is the only remaining valuable contribution of the NY Times to modern society.)

 

Better than the New York Post, who I can line the bottom of litter boxes with, and their sports section, whose drivel should go directly into the incinerator.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

4 hours ago, julian said:

Actually far fetched 

Far less far fetched than the string of things that went right for us this past weekend 🤷‍♂️

[without a drought]

The Bills could also oversleep and miss the 1 o'clock game.

[K D]

37 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

If something is probable, there is a good chance that it will happen, but it is not certain. If there is a 90% chance of rain today, it is probable [=it is likely] that it will rain.

 

The scenario outlined above has less than a 3% chance of occurring and you use the word probable? 

All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do.

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

This is a lot more plausible than the us not getting in with 11 wins discussion was a few weeks ago,  but I’ve still gotta add the reminder that 8 games all going against us even if the winners are mostly favorites is still very small odds