The not so farfetched way the Bills miss the playoffs

[Belgium_Bill]

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

[Andrew Son]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:55 PM, KDIGGZ said:

 

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

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It's not nearly that simple.  If the Bills beat NE and lose to MIA, and PIT wins out BUF still has a 67% chance to make it.

[JGMcD2]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:55 PM, KDIGGZ said:

All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do.

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

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Probable was a poor choice of words. It’s not mathematically probable for the Bills to miss the playoffs at 10-7. 

 

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:29 PM, Prospector said:

I think he was making a joke based on the original thread title 

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Don’t give him that much credit @Prospector

Edited December 28, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:55 PM, KDIGGZ said:

All of those outcomes are favorites in their game except Pittsburgh at Seattle and you are putting your trust in Geno Smith? Mason Rudolph's offense looked a lot better last week than what Trubisky could do.

 

If Ravens beat Miami, which is likely and what everyone here is cheering for, then Ravens clinch #1 seed and rest starters week 18 vs Pittsburgh and Steelers win out so if the Bills don't beat Miami they are out.

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I mean even if you guarantee a pit win there despite there being no guarantee pit beats the ravens backups, you’ve still gotta go 7 for 7 in the other games.

 

look what happened with the ‘we can miss the playoffs with 11 wins’ scenario last week…that would’ve required picking 13/13 games correct the rest of the way a lot of those being favorites and every game but Miami went our way. 

 

these games where one team is a small favorite are 60/40 type games…getting a lot of those to go against you simultaneously is really tough

 

just getting the bills to not finish 2-0 and the Steelers to beat the Seahawks is around 18% odds…then you’ve gotta pile 5 other picks on top of that

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Bob Jones]

  On 12/28/2023 at 1:17 PM, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I mean just to be safe we all have to do a $50 parlay right?

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Didja see the guy last week who placed a FIVE DOLLAR parlay bet on DraftKings for 14 different players to score a TD, and he got them all right, and he won $489,000? Now THAT was a good day for him.

[K D]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:03 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I mean even if you guarantee a pit win there despite there being no guarantee pit beats the ravens backups, you’ve still gotta go 7 for 7 in the other games.

 

look what happened with the ‘we can miss the playoffs with 11 wins’ scenario last week…that would’ve required picking 13/13 games correct the rest of the way a lot of those being favorites and every game but Miami went our way. 

 

these games where one team is a small favorite are 60/40 type games…getting a lot of those to go against you simultaneously is really tough

 

just getting the bills to not finish 2-0 and the Steelers to beat the Seahawks is around 18% odds…then you’ve gotta pile 5 other picks on top of that

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Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

[Einstein's Dog]

If you're going to go all negative nancy and try and figure "The not so far fetched way the Bills can miss the playoffs", it really should be the Bills lose the next two games.  I don't like thinking about it, and don't like to go there but that is your most likely way to keep us out.

 

If you assume the Bills beat the Pats on Sunday the odds are better the Bills can get the 2 seed than they are they will miss the playoffs.

[The Red King]

Neither of our games is an automatic win.  That's why I want to lock a playoff spot up this weekend.  Sooner the better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:12 PM, KDIGGZ said:

Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

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That is a common pitfall and exactly what not to do.  That thinking leads people into believing very very unlikely things are possible with regards to probability lol. It’s the whole basis behind sportsbooks offering parlays with crazy odds…sure you’ll hear about someone hitting a big one rarely but the overwhelming majority of the time it is free money for them. The odds of just one game not going the way you think are extremely high

 

if there were a lot of different paths to us missing with 10 wins it’s a different story but as it stands you have to pretty much perfectly pick 8 games.  
 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Joe Marino]

Sounds like the parlay you never admit to.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

Here's another not so far fetched way they could miss the playoffs. The Bills could lose to both NE and Miami. I don't think that will happen but it is not "far fetched" because NE already beat us once, and Miami is legitimately a good team that we will be on the road for.

 

At this point getting into the playoffs despite a loss will be a sign of likely one-and-done in the playoffs.

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:12 PM, KDIGGZ said:

Don't look at the overall probability, look at each game individually and choose a winner as if you were betting on the game. You will end up with the Bills out of the playoffs

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Great plan other than the actual statistical probability has been determined as around 95% if they beat the Pats. 

[chongli]

This is a very weird thread to wake up to this morning, eyes still blurry. It feels like deja vu. I had to check to see who the OP was and if this thread was sarcasm. The choice of words: "not so far fetched" didn't help either (vs. "somewhat probable"?), lol.

Edited December 28, 2023 by chongli

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:34 PM, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Here's another not so far fetched way they could miss the playoffs. The Bills could lose to both NE and Miami. I don't think that will happen but it is not "far fetched" because NE already beat us once, and Miami is legitimately a good team that we will be on the road for.

 

At this point getting into the playoffs despite a loss will be a sign of likely one-and-done in the playoffs.

 

 

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First point I agree with but idk about the second one.  Chiefs were a Melvin Gordon fumble six in the red zone away from blowing an ugly one vs 4-11 Denver last year in week 17 who had drew lock starting then they went on to win the superbowl

 

 

 

[Avisan]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:56 PM, Belgium_Bill said:

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

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I want Division + 2 or 3 seed in play.  It makes a huge difference in the Wild Card round and delays us hitting the Ravens until AFCCG.

[Seventeen]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:45 PM, Avisan said:

I want Division + 2 or 3 seed in play.  It makes a huge difference in the Wild Card round and delays us hitting the Ravens until AFCCG.

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#2 seed would be awesome and even better would be having KC come to us in the divisional round. 

[pennstate10]

  On 12/28/2023 at 9:40 AM, QB Bills said:

After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks.

 

Week 17

Bills over pats

Colts over Raiders

Jags over Panthers

Texans over Titans

Steelers over Seahawks

 

All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road

 

Week 18

Dolphins over Bills

Jags over Titans

Steelers over Ravens

 

Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. 

 

Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot.

 

And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties.

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Thanks. 
 

The way I see it, the team that is playing the best football, with fewest NEW major injuries, at playoff time is the team that wins the Super Bowl.  Early season wins and losses are irrelevant. We’re now talking about teams that have meshed and found their identities, tweaked coaching and playing styles, have replaced season ending injuries with quality depth. 
 

Personally, I don’t really care if the Bills make the playoffs and lose a first round game. I want a Super Bowl. 
 

So if Bills lose to Miami,that means that this edition of the Bills isn’t Super Bowl quality.  
 

I think this edition has overcome injuries and coaching snafus and is now beginning to play their best. When this Bills team brings focus and their A game they’re outstanding. 
 

Playoffs begin on Sunday. No more mulligans. 

[WotAGuy]

I get BBFS but….why do this to yourself - and the rest of us?

[pennstate10]

  On 12/28/2023 at 2:56 PM, Belgium_Bill said:

It's a constant balance between being certain of the play-offs and still winning the division... Analysis is correct: the main team to root against is the Steelers, and the likeliest "unsuspected help" in the last two weeks has to come from the totally unpredictable Titans.

 

Here's one for you all: which scenario would you prefer after the week 17 games, assuming we have beaten the Pats:

1/ Bills mathematically certain of play-offs but Phins beat Ravens so the division title is gone.

2/ Phins lose so Bills play in Miami for the division title but a loss could spell no play-offs alltogether.

 

Where would you rather be next week ? Apart from right here right now of course....  

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2 all day long. 

[Augie]

  On 12/28/2023 at 3:43 PM, chongli said:

This is a very weird thread to wake up to this morning, eyes still blurry. It feels like deja vu. I had to check to see who the OP was and if this thread was sarcasm. The choice of words: "not so far fetched" didn't help either (vs. "somewhat probable"?), lol.

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Did your clock/radio wake you up to some Sonny and Cher? Do you think Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow? 

 

This place! 😂