2023 Defensive Save % Rankings (Like Baseball)

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

The odd thing about the chart to me is that the two teams that currently look (to my eyes) like the class of their respective conferences (49ers and Ravens) are at the bottom of the chart with a combined 0-6.

For sure. Again, the aggregate was really the only reason I have the team totals. I knew I would run multiple seasons against Buffalo to compare against the aggregate. As for observations with some of the other teams.

 

-The 49ers just haven't been in close games. Only one trial.

 

-The Ravens are a team I would be interested in maybe seeing more. If you recall, they blew like a 20 point lead to us in 2021 I believe. They blew a Wild Card lead to the Bengals last year. I think they might have some chronic issues if we go further back. 

 

-Green Bay, Seattle, Titans, Eagles, Chargers I have some curiosity. It would be nice to know who is the low in this sample over a few years and if any teams show patterns. I would think the Chargers would. 

 

- Pittsburgh, Tomlin has always had this magical ability to get the most out of his guys. Is this it? What is the driver? Closers on defense? Does this stretch multiple seasons?

[julian]

I like the effort here, I approve.

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

This is great stuff!

 

Curious about number 3.  How was this metric chosen for qualifying a save?  Is this basically the same as saying that a “save” is preventing the other team from eliminating its deficit (of 8 or fewer points) in the qualifying minutes set forth in metric 1? 

The 30 second vs 1 minute threshold was just put in place to say, to consider this a blown save the other team needs adequate time to actually threaten you.The scoring threshold was put in place to determine "runners in scoring position" concept. In baseball you only get credit for a save if the other team is actually a threat. So this had to be one score. The time thresholds are arbitrary. We could say instead of 5 minutes, make it 7 minutes. Instead of a minimum 30 seconds for a FG make it 15 seconds. I tried to be on the side of a true blown save. A clear situation where a stop was required and it wasn't made. 

 

About 5 instances occurred where a blown save did occur under the time threshold of 30 seconds for a FG and 1 minute for a TD (13 seconds among them). In these rare examples I counted the blown save. As it was even worse in my mind than having adequate time. I did keep that concept uniform. In the other examples in which the save wasn't blown but it was below the time threshold it just wasn't counted at all. Hope that makes sense. As I plowed into this I had to keep creating nuances to account for the various situations.