What contract will AJ Epen$a get?

[FilthyBeast]

Not counting QB, Pass rushers are still the most sought after piece in this league along with offensive lineman so I think AJE is long gone and going to get a monster deal even if he doesn't play again for the Bills this year and/or have any impact because of the injury.

[Nephilim17]

There's no way with the Bills salary cap situation we should pay AJ 8 figures per ($10,00,000 plus). No way. 

Sign Floyd, draft a kid at DE and put the money/resources towards a WR2.

[billsfan89]

22 hours ago, peterpan said:

A good rookie draft pick could produce as much as he is too.

 

think Milano, Kyle Williams, taron Johnson….

 

I know our DE picks never seem to pan out but maybe one finally will!?

I think Groot has been a good pick, his stats aren’t eye popping but they aren’t bad either. I think if he got more snaps he would easily have been a 10 sack a year player this and last season and he is really good against the run. 
 

Much like Ed I think he will have his breakout but until then he is still a quality starting caliber DE.

[H2o]

I actually think Epenesa will end up somewhere on a 1 year, prove-it type deal with another team next year. I expect that to be somewhere in the $8M-$10M range. I don't think any GM is going to hand out a bunch of gtd $$$ to a guy who hasn't consistently produced. If he shows out next year with more reps elsewhere, then he'll cash in for real.

[Billy Claude]

For what it's worth, Epenesa is not in PFF's list of top 100 free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Three Bills are on the list,  Floyd at 48th (1 yr $6M), Davis at 83th (1 yr $12M), and Jones at 90th (1 yr $6M), though PFF's contract projections seem pretty low.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

For what it's worth, Epenesa is not in PFF's list of top 100 free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Three Bills are on the list,  Floyd at 48th (1 yr $6M), Davis at 83th (1 yr $12M), and Jones at 90th (1 yr $6M), though PFF's contract projections seem pretty low.

Yeah I saw that. Pretty telling, I just think AJ will get a 1 yr/ 6-7M deal as a prove it.  We're not paying that with what's tied up in Von.  Use that money on Leonard.  He's earned it.

[T master]

He like many others will probably want to check out FA to see exactly how much another team will give him & you can't blame him but i don't think that he will be back with the Bills because Beane will once again let him find out like they did with Edmunds & he will be gone .

 

But i believe Beane will get after DE/pass rusher in the draft to come along & he may be already on the team in some one like Kingsley Jonathan .

[wppete]

$14million a season 3 years. Someone is going to pay him. 

[gonzo1105]

Hmm tough. If he hits Free Agency, he’s still young, has ascended every year but has never been a starter. I think he gets in the 8-10 million a year. 
 

like others have said DEs are a premium and a lot of teams will think he can provide more with plays a game. Unless he’s at 6 mill or so I would let him go. 

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, H2o said:

I actually think Epenesa will end up somewhere on a 1 year, prove-it type deal with another team next year. I expect that to be somewhere in the $8M-$10M range. I don't think any GM is going to hand out a bunch of gtd $$$ to a guy who hasn't consistently produced. If he shows out next year with more reps elsewhere, then he'll cash in for real.

 

He has consistently produced though. Over the last season and a half he has been extremely consistent. The issue is the first two and a half years of his career and because he was a covid pick, no pre-season, and the Bills attempted a body transformation I think a LOT of teams will look past that. AJE is getting paid this spring.

5 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

For what it's worth, Epenesa is not in PFF's list of top 100 free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Three Bills are on the list,  Floyd at 48th (1 yr $6M), Davis at 83th (1 yr $12M), and Jones at 90th (1 yr $6M), though PFF's contract projections seem pretty low.

 

AJE will get a bigger deal than all 3 of them.

[H2o]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has consistently produced though. Over the last season and a half he has been extremely consistent. The issue is the first two and a half years of his career and because he was a covid pick, no pre-season, and the Bills attempted a body transformation I think a LOT of teams will look past that. AJE is getting paid this spring.

You may be right. It is kind of weird situation to gauge imo. Some guys have been relatively successful in our system, then when they got paid and went elsewhere did nothing for the most part. Even still, all it takes is one team/GM to say, "he's our guy." We shall see I guess. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by H2o

[Matt_In_NH]

Compare him with Trent Murphy from Washington after his rookie deal.  Murphy got over 7M per from the Bills on a three year.....I think epenesa is actually better and with inflation he will easiliy get a multi year 10+M deal IMO.

[stlbills13]

I'd even overpay to bring him back as I am a big believer in continuity but I just think someone is going to pay him to essentially be an every down player and the Bills can't afford that price nor is he that kind of player. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Compare him with Trent Murphy from Washington after his rookie deal.  Murphy got over 7M per from the Bills on a three year.....I think epenesa is actually better and with inflation he will easiliy get a multi year 10+M deal IMO.

 

And Trent was coming off a year out injured at the time and only had 1 year of production compared to AJE's 2.

 

Honestly a lot of it depends on the top two guys on the market: Brian Burns and Josh Allen. If one or both of them hit the market it will depress things for the next tier which is probably Chase Young and Danielle Hunter and then after that the likes of Danna, Epenesa and Huff (possibly Uche too but he is so scheme specific). But if, as I expect, Burns and Allen stay put..... well then suddenly a team needing a pass rush boost other than the usual suspect vets - Clowney and Ngakoue etc - is going to be looking hard at guys like Epenesa and Huff who have good level of production as situational players and trying to project that into a starting role. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Saxum]

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Compare him with Trent Murphy from Washington after his rookie deal.  Murphy got over 7M per from the Bills on a three year.....I think epenesa is actually better and with inflation he will easiliy get a multi year 10+M deal IMO.

 

If Bills face Ravens again in playoffs again Bills should sign Trent Murphy to practice squad and leak they are planning on elevating him just to give Jackson the willies.  He was SOOO frustrated in that playoff game.

 

[Brit]

I feel the Bills are unlikely to keep him ecause he will be out of their price range, and will turn to an older vet to fill his roster space, or perhaps a rookie. I imagine they will re-sign several of the other DLinemen who are up for free agency this off season.

[Saxum]

7 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

I'd even overpay to bring him back as I am a big believer in continuity but I just think someone is going to pay him to essentially be an every down player and the Bills can't afford that price nor is he that kind of player. 

 

How many defense line players all every down players these days?  Every team seems to use waves and situational players which is why I think teams need to work on giving offense linemen a break during game allowing them to observe defense play and stay fresh.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Brit said:

I feel the Bills are unlikely to keep him ecause he will be out of their price range, and will turn to an older vet to fill his roster space, or perhaps a rookie. I imagine they will re-sign several of the other DLinemen who are up for free agency this off season.

 

Or both. I imagine they will push really hard to re-sign Floyd to a similar deal as this year, if Jones can get back and show he can still play I expect a 1 year deal there and Beane loves him some Jordan Phillips for some reason. Shaq will take his usual vet minimum type deal and compete for a back of the roster spot to play his very specific base end vs heavy run teams role. 

 

I imagine 2024 EDGE:

Rousseau

Von

Floyd

Shaq 

Jonathan

Rookie

 

2024 DT:

Oliver

Jones

Phillips

Rookie

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

How many defense line players all every down players these days?  Every team seems to use waves and situational players which is why I think teams need to work on giving offense linemen a break during game allowing them to observe defense play and stay fresh.

 

Very few. But a team signing AJE needs to be comfortable that his production will escalate pro-rata if you have him out there say 65% rather than 45%. That is the element of risk. 

[RichRiderBills]

19 hours ago, H2o said:

I actually think Epenesa will end up somewhere on a 1 year, prove-it type deal with another team next year. I expect that to be somewhere in the $8M-$10M range. I don't think any GM is going to hand out a bunch of gtd $$$ to a guy who hasn't consistently produced. If he shows out next year with more reps elsewhere, then he'll cash in for real.

 

Bills would give him that. 

 

I say 3 years 24 million 12 million guaranteed. 

[Aussie Joe]

6 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Bills would give him that. 

 

I say 3 years 24 million 12 million guaranteed. 

No I don’t think so…I also thinks he gets 3 years $30 million absolute minimum somewhere 

 

They will look to bring back DQ and Floyd instead at around $12-$13 m for the pair …can’t afford AJE as well ..,