What contract will AJ Epen$a get?

[msw2112]

Could he be the next Oliver?  What I mean by this is that Oliver has flashed his first few years, but was highly inconsistent from week to week.  One week a monster, and other weeks invisible.  The Bills paid him and it looked like a huge overpay.  He came out this season and earned it.

 

Epenesa has been similarly inconsistent, some weeks a monster and others invisible, just like Oliver.  Maybe he gets paid good money (but not top dollar) and rewards the team with great play next season.

 

Or, he goes the way of Edmunds and moves on to be overpaid someone elsewhere....

[Saxum]

9 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Could he be the next Oliver?  What I mean by this is that Oliver has flashed his first few years, but was highly inconsistent from week to week.  One week a monster, and other weeks invisible.  The Bills paid him and it looked like a huge overpay.  He came out this season and earned it.

 

Epenesa has been similarly inconsistent, some weeks a monster and others invisible, just like Oliver.  Maybe he gets paid good money (but not top dollar) and rewards the team with great play next season.

 

Or, he goes the way of Edmunds and moves on to be overpaid someone elsewhere....

 

Or he leaves and becomes a monster for another defense.

 

During the first two years his weight varied per direction of Bills training staff.

In his third year his weight settled; he was developing and part of that may have been tutorage from Von Miller.

During this year he has been steadily getting better and showing including his athletic ability and covering receivers on stunts.

Unfortunately he was injured at wrong time but he still played 13 games; an injury to the rib cartilage is tricky so he might be able to play or not.

After this season he may decide to sign a on year deal to try to reset his market but if Bills look like they will need to restock defense with 12 FAs on defense it would be the wrong year for a one year deal.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Limeaid

[SydneyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

[balln]

AJE not even on the list of top 100 FA. He makes plays, tips passes id say is what he does best. He really only wins against inferior blockers with effort and bull rush, or if the qb take a DEEP drop. Otherwise hes a JAG. Horrific against the run and misdirection runs

Edited December 27, 2023 by balln

[ProcessTruster]

he'll be gone

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

Agreed, after seeing that link I came to post the same thing. But I don't believe he'll sign for such a bargain.

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Just find another productive, one we rotation anyway

 

I want my shiny new receiver

You will.

 

I am pretty sure Beane will do a lot to draft WR in R1, but it obviously depends on where we draft and many other things. But he will want his WR.

 

Personally if those top WRs are as good as advertised I'd be willing to trade up for next year's R1 pick to get one. But let's see how the season ends first.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

In his third year his weight settled; he was developing and part of that may have been tutorage from Van Miller.

Didn’t know he was already considering a switch to broadcasting 

[GunnerBill]

I think he is looking at roughly 4 years; $60m; $30m guaranteed and $15m AAV. 

 

I mean Carl Lawson got $15m AAV for three seasons three years ago from the Jets on the back of two 5 sack seasons. Sure he had 8.5 as a rookie too, but I think teams will look at Epenesa and what the Bills did with him and be willing to ignore the production in his first two years as pretty irrelevant. 

 

The guy who is going to really cash in this offseason is Bryce Huff. Spotrac has him at $9.2m AAV. Man for that money I'd love the Bills to sign him. I suspect he will be in the same range as AJE personally. I still don't understand how that kid went undrafted. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

49. EDGE LEONARD FLOYD, BUFFALO BILLS

 

Floyd was let go by the Los Angeles Rams as they dropped from the most expensive NFL team in 2022 to the cheapest in 2023. Still, he has made a handful of splash plays this season, with several coming in key moments as the Bills defense struggles overall.

Floyd has earned 65.0-plus pass-rush grades in four straight seasons, and his 37.5 sacks over the span have flown under the radar as a top-10 mark among edge defenders.

Floyd is long and rangy, with good burst but only adequate bend around the edge. He tends to impact more plays than the box score indicates, thanks to his good instincts to get his hands up to deflect passes or disrupt throwing windows.

Top free agent comparison: Bruce Irvin, 2018

 

PlayerPass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateRun-defense gradeAPY as % of Cap at signing

 

Leonard Floyd66.169.711.1%55.4?

Bruce Irvin65.770.79.7%77.51.8%

 

*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing

 

Contract Projection: One year, $6 million fully guaranteed

 

Dunno about the rest of you, but I wouldn't hesitate a nanosecond to get him back for that money.

I can’t see him only getting 1-6M.  Ya never know tho.  Our season would’ve been over weeks ago if Beane hadn’t signed him imo

[Magox]

He's a good player who if given an opportunity to start with playing 60% of the snaps, he'll be a consistent 7-11 sack guy a year.   He's got decent burst and good technique plus he's gotten pretty good at tipping passes with that 6'6 frame of his.

 

I suspect he'll get anywhere $7M - $10 M a year contract.  Pass rushers typically come in at a premium but we did get Floyd who is more proven for an even cheaper amount, even though I do believe GM's factored in his age.

[frostbitmic]

I could see Epenesa get a 4 Year 50M with 25M guaranteed contract. His numbers would be gaudier if McDermott rotated players a little bit less and he was starting.

 

If you can get Floyd back for a fully guaranteed 6M ... DO IT.

[VaMilBill]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

Agree. The splash plays probably aren’t repeatable next year. Not something you can count on. We need to let him walk. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think he is looking at roughly 4 years; $60m; $30m guaranteed and $15m AAV. 

 

I mean Carl Lawson got $15m AAV for three seasons three years ago from the Jets on the back of two 5 sack seasons. Sure he had 8.5 as a rookie too, but I think teams will look at Epenesa and what the Bills did with him and be willing to ignore the production in his first two years as pretty irrelevant. 

 

The guy who is going to really cash in this offseason is Bryce Huff. Spotrac has him at $9.2m AAV. Man for that money I'd love the Bills to sign him. I suspect he will be in the same range as AJE personally. I still don't understand how that kid went undrafted. 

My initial thought was 4/$52M with $26M guaranteed, but with the rising cap - and Bosa re-setting the top of the market - I certainly can see him getting your estimate of 4/60/30 on the open market. 

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

He's a good player who if given an opportunity to start with playing 60% of the snaps, he'll be a consistent 7-11 sack guy a year.   He's got decent burst and good technique plus he's gotten pretty good at tipping passes with that 6'6 frame of his.

 

I suspect he'll get anywhere $7M - $10 M a year contract.  Pass rushers typically come in at a premium but we did get Floyd who is more proven for an even cheaper amount, even though I do believe GM's factored in his age.

One day I will understand how a guy who has never gotten more than 6.5 sacks in a season will be a consistent 7-11 sack guy.

 

Do you guys know how rare those guys are? Leonard Floyd is our first double digit sack guy since LORAX in 2016!

[Magox]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

One day I will understand how a guy who has never gotten more than 6.5 sacks in a season will be a consistent 7-11 sack guy.

 

Do you guys know how rare those guys are? Leonard Floyd is our first double digit sack guy since LORAX in 2016!

 

That's because you aren't thinking properly and have a bad habit of not reading the entire posts that you are responding to.

 

His rookie year in 2020 he played 27% of the total snaps

Following year in 2021 he played 30%

 

It wasn't until 2022 his third year that he began finding his form, he played 35% of the snaps and got 6.5 sacks.

This year he has played 36% of the snaps with two games to go and he has missed two games and he has 6.5 sacks.

 

The post that you were responding to qualified the statement that if Epenesa is given the opportunity to play on at least 60% of the snaps he would be a 7 to 11 sack a guy kind of player.  The facts of his play and stats shows that statement to be a very likely outcome.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Magox

[TheyCallMeAndy]

19 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

A lot of focus on Davis - but what about AJ?

 

Is he as good as gone?  

 

We have a lot of D-line issues next year it looks like DE might be our biggest need.  
 

I’m not going to lose sleep over losing him but he’s become a great rotational piece a guy we drafted in the 2nd round.  

 

Also is Jones under contract?  Floyd?  They both UFAs?  
 

AJ, IMO, is a must resign and needs to start opposite Groot next year. 
 

I don’t think he returns to be the #3 DE. 
 

Davis and Floyd are both UDFAs, I think I let them test the market if they don’t want team friendly deals. 

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

That's because you aren't thinking properly and have a bad habit of not reading the entire posts that you are responding to.

 

His rookie year in 2020 he played 27% of the total snaps

Following year in 2021 he played 30%

 

It wasn't until 2022 his third year that he began finding his form, he played 35% of the snaps and got 6.5 sacks.

This year he has played 36% of the snaps with two games to go and he has missed two games and he has 6.5 sacks.

 

The post that you were responding to qualified the statement that if Epenesa is given the opportunity to play on at least 60% of the snaps he would be a 7 to 11 sack a guy kind of player.  The facts of his play and stats shows that statement to be a very likely outcome.

 

 

He's actually played:

 

31% in 2020

37% in 2021

38% in 2022

41% in 2023

 

Regardless, do you think he's a better pass rusher than Rousseau?

 

Rousseau snap counts:

 

49% - 4 sacks

56% - 8 sacks

59% - 5 sacks

 

Your projection is far overrating AJE.  These 7-11 sack guys do not grow on trees.

There is one guy from the 2020 draft class AVERAGING >7 sacks per year. One. And AJE with a big new deal is gonna be the next guy?  Possible, but not likely.

 

Shaq Lawson had a nice 6.5 sacks on 50% of snaps in his final year. He "projected out" to being a 7-10 sack per year guy. He doesn't have 10 career sacks since.

 

Very likely outcome for AJE?  Not even close.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He's actually played:

 

31% in 2020

37% in 2021

38% in 2022

41% in 2023

 

Regardless, do you think he's a better pass rusher than Rousseau?

 

Rousseau snap counts:

 

49% - 4 sacks

56% - 8 sacks

59% - 5 sacks

 

Your projection is far overrating AJE.  These 7-11 sack guys do not grow on trees.

There is one guy from the 2020 draft class AVERAGING >7 sacks per year. One. And AJE with a big new deal is gonna be the next guy?  Possible, but not likely.

 

Shaq Lawson had a nice 6.5 sacks on 50% of snaps in his final year. He "projected out" to being a 7-10 sack per year guy. He doesn't have 10 career sacks since.

 

Very likely outcome for AJE?  Not even close.

 

Here you can see his percentage of snaps played https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020-snap-counts.htm

 

He's already a guy that can do 8 sacks a year+ if given the same opportunities as a normal NFL starting DE.

 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

Here you can see his percentage of snaps played https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020-snap-counts.htm

 

He's already a guy that can do 8 sacks a year+ if given the same opportunities as a normal NFL starting DE.

 

 

It’s weird that AJE’s page has his snap counts higher than the team page. Must be calculating it differently.

 

I would feel pretty confident in a wager that AJE doesn’t eclipse 8 sacks more than once in his career, if that. 
 

I’m sure some team will feel as you do and overpay him, only to find out situational pass rushers do not actually project out 1:1 play time to sack totals. One only has to look at our own Leonard Floyd, who played 86% of snaps last season for 9.5 sacks in 17 games, and is playing 54% of snaps this season for 10.5 sacks in 15 games. If your projection held true, he should have half the sacks he currently does.
 

Of course, that’s not how it works. There’s millions of examples of this. Bills legend Mario Addison had 11 sacks in 2017. He played more snaps the next two years and had less sacks both years. 
 

Seeing as only 19 players in the NFL actually had double digit sacks last season, I’m confident that AJE won’t be one of top 20 anytime soon. 
 

I guess we’ll see.

[Don Otreply]

If they want him they will make it happen, what he gets paid, don’t care, it’s not my money, 

 

GO BILLS!!!