What contract will AJ Epen$a get?

[Big Blitz]

A lot of focus on Davis - but what about AJ?

 

Is he as good as gone?  

 

We have a lot of D-line issues next year it looks like DE might be our biggest need.  
 

I’m not going to lose sleep over losing him but he’s become a great rotational piece a guy we drafted in the 2nd round.  

 

Also is Jones under contract?  Floyd?  They both UFAs?  
 

[C.Biscuit97]

I think he’s gone. He’s a tough guy to evaluate. I loved the pick but it took a while for him to become a legit starter and I’m not sure he is a total 3 down guy. He lacks burst so I don’t ever see him being a double digit sack guy.

 

ideally, he thrives in a rotation and he is really good in that role. I’m just not sure how much that is worth and it’s probably more than we want to pay.  Solid player in the Chris Kelsay (better) vein. 

[FireChans]

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

[boyst]

I like him, I want him to get the money he has earned. I imagine $8mm/yr is about the floor 

[NewEra]

I think he’ll get around 30M gtd 15m  aav.  If he gets that, I hope it’s not from us.  I think he’s perfect where he is right now.  Surrounded by a very good DL and only asked to play 40-50% of the snaps.  Any team asking him to be their #1 or #2 DL will have buyers remorse. He’s too one dimensional for my taste

Edited December 26, 2023 by NewEra

[CaptnCoke11]

10+ million a season for sure 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

I think he’s better than Shaq but overall, I agree. Probably be perfect for a 3-4 team. He has no real explosion.

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year.

 

He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

 

Shaq Lawson after 2019 is the comparison and I think he will get a deal about the same size (as a percentage of the cap) but maybe with more guaranteed money. I am honestly fine with letting him walk unless he takes a hometown deal that pays him well but maybe is a bit smaller than some other team is willing to pay him. I would rather keep the money to keep Groot down the line who I think is the better player. 

 

It would be very nice to keep AJE but I think the market for him is just going to be big enough that the Bills won't be able to compete reasonably. My DE rotations for 2024 if the Bills cannot retain AJE would be to attempt to resign Floyd and Shaq while drafting a DE high to pair up with Groot and Von. The Bills if AJE is gone will only have Von and Groot on the roster and even if they bring back Floyd and Shaq those guys are older. The Bills will need to restock the DE position with a younger player. If AJE is retained then I think you run it back with what you have but maybe add a mid to late round pick to develop. 

[peterpan]

He has been solid but, it’s too little too late to pay up big for. Maybe he market won’t be as big on him as week think? In that case he may get a team friendly extension 

[Matt_In_NH]

More than the Bills should pay, he will be a loss but you cannot resign everyone.  My bet is whoever signs him won't get the value out of him he signs for.  Rousseau should be considered for an extension, but maybe not til after next year.

[Kaenon]

39 minutes ago, boyst said:

I like him, I want him to get the money he has earned. I imagine $8mm/yr is about the floor 

That's kinda what I thought.

Plus cap is going up a lot next year...

He could see $10M somewhere by a team that really likes him and likely a team we played against this year.

[Charles Romes]

His late season injury may have made him less Espensa. 

[peterpan]

A good rookie draft pick could produce as much as he is too.

 

think Milano, Kyle Williams, taron Johnson….

 

I know our DE picks never seem to pan out but maybe one finally will!?

[BuffaloBillyG]

I can see him in the 3/yr $28M range with between $12M-15M in guaranteed cash. Not bad value for teams that don't rotate as often as we do.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think he’s gone. He’s a tough guy to evaluate. I loved the pick but it took a while for him to become a legit starter and I’m not sure he is a total 3 down guy. He lacks burst so I don’t ever see him being a double digit sack guy.

 

ideally, he thrives in a rotation and he is really good in that role. I’m just not sure how much that is worth and it’s probably more than we want to pay.  Solid player in the Chris Kelsay (better) vein. 

Very accurate comparison to Kelsay. AJ 's never scratching 10+ sacks but he will give you a couple remarkable games per year.  I'd rather spend AJ's money extending Floyd.  Leonard puts consistent pressure on the qb every other play.  Try to get him for 2 more years and wait to get out of Von's contract. 

[SectionC3]

3 x 10, with approximately half guaranteed.  

 

The better question is what does Gabe Davis get.  Before last week I would have said 1 x 7.5 would be a nice get for him.  Now I'm not so sure somebody doesn't bite on him. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by SectionC3

[CNYfan]

Sometimes these guys who show out in the Super Bowl get better contracts than they may otherwise.   

[Big Blitz]

 

[John from Riverside]

Just find another productive, one we rotation anyway

 

I want my shiny new receiver

[Jerome007]

The dude blossomed just at the right time... for himself. He is a crapshoot for any GM that signs him. He could be all the way from bargain-compared-to-production, to complete waste of doe. This year, for purely pass rushes and deflections, Floyd was better but he has a legit claim to #2. Oliver, Floyd, Rousseau were way more complete though.