Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[Wayne Arnold]

On 12/24/2023 at 4:00 PM, Maine-iac said:

 Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much.  Allen has a turnover in almost every single game.  His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. 

 

On 12/24/2023 at 7:34 PM, FireChans said:

Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. 
 

Turnovers will always matter. 

Elite coaching the difference?

 

Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible.

 

People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical.

 

What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo.

[Perry Turtle]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If TO’s don’t matter in wins, then TD’s don’t matter in losses. 
 

 

You really painted yourself in a corner there lol

Well that just f###ing stupid. And to be technical TDs in losses count towards tie breakers in the final standings.  Turnovers don't.  WRONG AGAIN Rabbit.

 

Tell me how those turnovers in the Bills win matter to anyone but you.

 

NFL teams review the game film on Mondays and then move onto the next gameplan.  

 

Why should anyone be concerned with these turnovers?

Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Perry Turtle said:

Well Allen walked off the field in OT with that game tied.  The Bills lost that game on a punt returned of a TD.

 

You accuse of others of believing Josh is dumb, but nobody I know is saying that.

 

Allen is an incredibly intelligent player.  He has something like 125+ more career total TDs than interceptions. You don't post numbers like that if you're not intelligent.

 

Do you believe Allen is playing dumb?  Every player makes mistakes, Allen's no different, but he's pretty damn good at making up for those mistakes.  The guy is the biggest reset button in the league.

 

Seems like the only resolution that most want on this thread is to have Allen never throw another interception again.  I mean, he scored three TDs against the Chargers, but because the game was close and Allen threw a pick, everybody wants to obsess on that.

 

If you don't think Allen plays smartly, maybe you should take a look at the throws he makes rather than the ones he misses.  He's a pretty spectacular QB.

I’m not accusing Josh of being dumb.  I think he’s an incredible QB and can improve even more.  You are the one who seems to think we have to take him as he is and that he has no room for improvement.  
 

oh and the Jets game?  The reason it was tied at the end of regulation?  Josh’s picks.  He even said he lost the game because of them.  He’s a big boy, you don’t have to defend him as if he’s a saint.

[Perry Turtle]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I’m not accusing Josh of being dumb.  I think he’s an incredible QB and can improve even more.  You are the one who seems to think we have to take him as he is and that he has no room for improvement.  
 

oh and the Jets game?  The reason it was tied at the end of regulation?  Josh’s picks.  He even said he lost the game because of them.  He’s a big boy, you don’t have to defend him as if he’s a saint.

If this is Allen's ceiling, I'll take it every day of the week.  If can improve, great, but I'll take him as-is, interceptions and all.

 

That Jets game is Allen's floor.  Sure he took blame.  He's a stand up guy.  But three interceptions and he still leads the team to force overtime, at a time where it looked like nothing was working for him.

 

He plays 'bad' and the team isn't getting blown out, instead they're  battling for the win on the final drive.

 

If the Bills had a healthy defense this season, with Milano, Jones, and White, I would be laying money on them left and right to win the Super Bowl. 

 

In my mind, he doesn't need to improve.  He just needs to play his game.  If he does improve, great, but I think he's pretty locked in right now.

 

 

[BigDingus]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Mahomes for the first time in his career has to play with a below average group of skill players and OL. It isn't a coincidence he is throwing more stupid looking INTs this year. He has no choice but to push the envelope.

 

Like I've said many many times Allen and Mahomes the past 3 years or so have played at a very similar level. The difference in team results over that period is exclusively because of other factors that have nothing to do with QB play. Both offenses would likely be bottom of the league bad this year if not for the greatness of their QBs.

 

 

Agreed, but then the media would have to admit ***ALL*** QB's "need help."

 

But the Chiefs have a great defense, a similarly unimpressive WR corps, a HOF TE, and still have Andy Reid calling plays. So what happened? Am I supposed to believe the dropoff from Juju Smith-Schuster to Rashee Rice is SO massive that they go from Super Bowl winners to this?

 

Their RBs are still Isiah Pacheco & Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the rest of their WR corps is still mostly the same as last year (Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, etc.).

 

The biggest difference this season is Eric Bieniemy leaving (though he didn't call plays), and more turnovers. Chiefs had 23 turnovers in 17 games last year, but are already at 26 through 15 games this year. Mahomes simply isn't playing as well as normal, and the rest of the offense isn't helping either.

[FireChans]

45 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Well that just f###ing stupid. And to be technical TDs in losses count towards tie breakers in the final standings.  Turnovers don't.  WRONG AGAIN Rabbit.

 

Tell me how those turnovers in the Bills win matter to anyone but you.

 

NFL teams review the game film on Mondays and then move onto the next gameplan.  

 

Why should anyone be concerned with these turnovers?

It’s actually net points in tiebreakers, and turnovers can lead to opponents scoring, so you’re wrong again unfortunately. 
 

Try again lol

Edited December 26, 2023 by FireChans

[Perry Turtle]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s actually net points in tiebreakers, and turnovers can lead to opponents scoring, so you’re wrong again unfortunately. 
 

Try again lol

Yeah, points scored in loses still impact net points, so you're statement about points in loses not counting is still hysterically and hopelessly WRONG.

 

Things that can lead to opponents scoring: turnovers, failed 4th downs, net punt average, average rush yards against, average pass yards against, pass percentage against, defensive penalties taken, field goal percentage against, offense penalties taken in your own end zone, average opponent field start, kick-off yards surrendered.

 

Know what all of these have in common?  Not a single one of them is used in any tie break scenario.  So nice try, but WRONG again.

 

So enough grasping at straws rabbit.  You have the gun.  Try not to blow your own head off in explaining why those turnovers in the Bills win against the Chargers matter.

 

Make it fact based.  No "what ifs" or "alternative game" theory.  You claim that EVERY turnover matters unconditionally.  So why do those Bills turnovers matter?

 

[Dr.Sack]

Ask Purdy about TOs. Ours are a collective effort.

[Rockinon]

Whoopty damn doo😆

[FireChans]

10 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, points scored in loses still impact net points, so you're statement about points in loses not counting is still hysterically and hopelessly WRONG.

 

Things that can lead to opponents scoring: turnovers, failed 4th downs, net punt average, average rush yards against, average pass yards against, pass percentage against, defensive penalties taken, field goal percentage against, offense penalties taken in your own end zone, average opponent field start, kick-off yards surrendered.

 

Know what all of these have in common?  Not a single one of them is used in any tie break scenario.  So nice try, but WRONG again.

 

So enough grasping at straws rabbit.  You have the gun.  Try not to blow your own head off in explaining why those turnovers in the Bills win against the Chargers matter.

 

Make it fact based.  No "what ifs" or "alternative game" theory.  You claim that EVERY turnover matters unconditionally.  So why do those Bills turnovers matter?

 

So all those things matter in wins because they can be used in tiebreakers.

 

you are flailing bad here lol. You’re the one who said TO’s don’t matter in wins. But I guess they do. Because of tiebreakers. You lose.

[BananaB]

12 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible.

 

People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical.

 

What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo.

Rather throw 4 or 5 InTs at the end on a half Hail Mary or on 3rd and forever situation changing field position then having a pick six. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[ALLinALLEN]

I for one am shocked 

[Peter]

On 12/24/2023 at 2:56 PM, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

Bingo.

 

 

 

[uninja]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Agreed, but then the media would have to admit ***ALL*** QB's "need help."

 

But the Chiefs have a great defense, a similarly unimpressive WR corps, a HOF TE, and still have Andy Reid calling plays. So what happened? Am I supposed to believe the dropoff from Juju Smith-Schuster to Rashee Rice is SO massive that they go from Super Bowl winners to this?

 

Their RBs are still Isiah Pacheco & Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the rest of their WR corps is still mostly the same as last year (Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, etc.).

 

The biggest difference this season is Eric Bieniemy leaving (though he didn't call plays), and more turnovers. Chiefs had 23 turnovers in 17 games last year, but are already at 26 through 15 games this year. Mahomes simply isn't playing as well as normal, and the rest of the offense isn't helping either.

 

I think it's a combination of they miss Bieniemy, their OL is playing worse, the installed plays just aren't 'as good' (yeah Andy Reid calls the plays, but an offensive staff installs the gameplan and designs the plays and that seems to have taken a few steps back this year), the lack of a solid WR that Mahomes can depend on (was Juju last year) and Father Time catching up to Kielce finally. All of that together and you can see that Mahomes just isn't trusting everything in front of him. The entire offense just seems to be playing with a lack of focus and discipline that maybe Bieniemy brought because he is (according to rumors) kind of a hard ass.

[Wayne Arnold]

2 hours ago, BananaB said:

Rather throw 4 or 5 InTs at the end on a half Hail Mary or on 3rd and forever situation changing field position then having a pick six. 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

And box score scouts who think Allen should be eliminated from MVP consideration because he's second in the league in interceptions treat them exactly the same.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

15 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

Turnovers are so overblown it's really incredible.

 

People truly equate turnovers and touchdowns as if they're even remotely equivalent in value. Comical.

 

What's the difference between a turnover and a punt? Slightly worse field position? Whoopty-damn-doo.

Yea the situation the turnover occurred in is wayyy more important than just the total count of turnovers.  Throwing a bomb on third down to take a chance on making something happen is better than punting strategically.

 

a deep INT on 1st or second down is a negative play but doesn’t hurt anywhere close to as bad as a fumble or pick six 

 

as far as turnovers that really hurt us strategically in big spots of games I think Allen is right in line with a lot of the other great qbs if not less.  He’s had a lot of rotten luck this year with defenders catching everything too

Edited December 26, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan