Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[Perry Turtle]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

See, I don’t care if folks say, “hey Josh is gonna turn it over, it sucks but it is what it is.”

 

But folks say silly things like “turnovers don’t matter” or “turnovers don’t correlate with losses.”

 

Its comical. 
 

There was once a contingent of posters who debated that you didn’t need a franchise QB to win football games. They are gone now.

What's comical is ignoring every other thing besides turnovers that determines the outcome of a game.

 

Like TDs, sacks, penalties, rushing yards, passing yards, FG bombs, game management, gameplans, and the rest  don't matter.

 

Look turnovers can be a key factor in determining  the outcome of the game. But to believe that it is key determining factor in 80% games is ridiculous.

 

Believing that causes you to do stupid things like shackle your franchise QB because you're afraid if he throws an int it will cause you to lose the game.  And when you do that, your lose your OC job in the middle of the season, because instead of cutting down ints, you constipated a top 5 offensive unit.

 

Nobody likes turnovers, but good teams don't turn into bet wetters when they occur.  

 

Back to the thread topic, the actual game evidence doesn't suggest that turnovers are the Achilles heel of this team.  As fans, would we like the team to play perfectly and win every game going away? Sure, but this is the NFL, and the league is messy.  And regardless of turnovers this year, the Bills had the chance to win 4 additional games this season with defensive stands.  To me, that suggests the Bills Achilles heel this season is 4th quarter defense.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Allen starts thinking more and taking safe throws he is no longer an elite QB. You can't take away some of his INTs without also taking away some of his TDs. This is especially true because our group of skill players is currently below average and our OL is decent but not great. The offense has a crazy low margin for error which means Allen HAS to push the envelope to score points. There is no other way.

 

Also it should be pointed out again that Allen's turnover luck has been bad in an unprecedented way. ZERO dropped INTs. As far as I know that has never happened before. His turnover worthy play rate is LOWER than his actual turnover rate. Again, that is unprecedented bad luck. With even average turnover luck he would probably have about 5 INTs less than he has right now and we wouldn't even be having this conversation this year, in fact he would probably be the leading MVP candidate.

 

I know it's hard to take a complicated view of things but this conversation is nowhere near as simple as "Josh just needs to stop throwing so many INTs." Not even close. For me the only thing I wish is that he would be more reserved against awful opponents like the Jets week 1 and the Chargers last week.

 

 

Mahomes for the first time in his career has to play with a below average group of skill players and OL. It isn't a coincidence he is throwing more stupid looking INTs this year. He has no choice but to push the envelope.

 

Like I've said many many times Allen and Mahomes the past 3 years or so have played at a very similar level. The difference in team results over that period is exclusively because of other factors that have nothing to do with QB play. Both offenses would likely be bottom of the league bad this year if not for the greatness of their QBs.

 

You want Favre.  I want Montana or Brady.  I think Allen can combine both.  Too bad you and others apparently don’t think he can play smarter football.  Guess you think he must be too dumb?

[Perry Turtle]

15 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

The irony of you saying this is immeasurable.

The outcome of the  Miinnesota game last season was determined by turnovers.  The NE playoff game wasn't determined by turnovers.

 

Catching on yet, Alternative game theory?  Or do we need another 'what if' scenario to make you feel more comfortable?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

You want Favre.  I want Montana or Brady.  I think Allen can combine both.  Too bad you and others apparently don’t think he can play smarter football.  Guess you think he must be too dumb?

 

This is like three combined strawman arguments and addresses nothing in my post at all. It has been well established that you will not be satisfied unless Allen is literally the greatest QB in the history of the NFL. I would like that too. But I prefer to talk in reality.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is like three combined strawman arguments and addresses nothing in my post at all. It has been well established that you will not be satisfied unless Allen is literally the greatest QB in the history of the NFL. I would like that too. But I prefer to talk in reality.

I think Josh can improve by playing smarter football.  He can do that and still take advantage of his physical skills.  I can only presume you don’t think he’s smart enough to do so. 
 

I’ll be satisfied with a few championships.  And if Josh becomes the GOAT fine by me.  But I’d much rather have him be say Montana than Favre.  Favre may have cost his teams more shots at a Lombardi than the one he won

Edited December 26, 2023 by oldmanfan

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

What's comical is ignoring every other thing besides turnovers that determines the outcome of a game.

 

Like TDs, sacks, penalties, rushing yards, passing yards, FG bombs, game management, gameplans, and the rest  don't matter.

 

Look turnovers can be a key factor in determining  the outcome of the game. But to believe that it is key determining factor in 80% games is ridiculous.

 

Believing that causes you to do stupid things like shackle your franchise QB because you're afraid if he throws an int it will cause you to lose the game.  And when you do that, your lose your OC job in the middle of the season, because instead of cutting down ints, you constipated a top 5 offensive unit.

 

Nobody likes turnovers, but good teams don't turn into bet wetters when they occur.  

 

Back to the thread topic, the actual game evidence doesn't suggest that turnovers are the Achilles heel of this team.  As fans, would we like the team to play perfectly and win every game going away? Sure, but this is the NFL, and the league is messy.  And regardless of turnovers this year, the Bills had the chance to win 4 additional games this season with defensive stands.  To me, that suggests the Bills Achilles heel this season is 4th quarter defense.

Show me any data that sacks, penalties etc are as correlated to wins/losses as TO’s.

[Mikie2times]

14 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

The outcome of the  Miinnesota game last season was determined by turnovers.  The NE playoff game wasn't determined by turnovers.

 

Catching on yet, Alternative game theory?  Or do we need another 'what if' scenario to make you feel more comfortable?

 

Causation / Correlation, as you have tried to use about 8 times would mean that in the process of winning, one of those outcomes would be more likely to increase or decrease which would limit our ability to view that data independently. As an example, TD's or rushing attempts. But when it comes to turnovers, it is completely independent of points. It is also not influenced by points such as the case with rushing attempts. It is largely independent which is why it is viewed as the holy grail by anybody with an understanding of the game. 

 

As I said earlier, the Bills are 29-26 when they're even or worse in the turnover battle. They're 31-2 when they have a +1 or better.  So again, it would REALLY seem to matter to this team how they fair in the turnover battle. Other things do matter, yes, nobody said this was the only thing that mattered. But it's probably the most correlated data point to winning % in the NFL. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Perry Turtle]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You want Favre.  I want Montana or Brady.  I think Allen can combine both.  Too bad you and others apparently don’t think he can play smarter football.  Guess you think he must be too dumb?

Well you're not getting Montana or Brady.  Those guys were rhythm passers.  Dorsey tried to turn Allen into a rhythm passer.  It didn't work.

 

Favre won a Super Bowl, right? I think if Allen had Holmgrem (in his prime) as his coach, he'd be better than Favre.

 

But I want Josh Allen, with no comparisons to any other QB.  And in no way did I imply he was dumb.  Allen is supremely confident in has abilities and can make every throw on the field imaginable.  He has made throws that no other QB in NFL history has made.  He succeeds in breaking rules.

 

That's the guy I want.  Because I know if he screws up and throws an int, he's going to come back with three TDs passing and throwing.  

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Show me any data that sacks, penalties etc are as correlated to wins/losses as TO’s.

I believe ANY/A is the QB stat most correlated w winning

 

TDs/att is like third or fourth

 

INTs/att is 7th

[Perry Turtle]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Show me any data that sacks, penalties etc are as correlated to wins/losses as TO’s.

I won't, because I believe all these stats are not entirely causal.  You can't look at these stats in aggregate and then say, see, that's why the Bills lost a specific game. 

 

That's why I point to specific games to determine if turnovers are, in fact, the Achilles heel of this team.  I don't think they are. Do i like it when they happen, of course not.  But i believe the majority of their losses can be attributed to other factors than turnovers.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Allen starts thinking more and taking safe throws he is no longer an elite QB. You can't take away some of his INTs without also taking away some of his TDs. This is especially true because our group of skill players is currently below average and our OL is decent but not great. The offense has a crazy low margin for error which means Allen HAS to push the envelope to score points. There is no other way.

 

Also it should be pointed out again that Allen's turnover luck has been bad in an unprecedented way. ZERO dropped INTs. As far as I know that has never happened before. His turnover worthy play rate is LOWER than his actual turnover rate. Again, that is unprecedented bad luck. With even average turnover luck he would probably have about 5 INTs less than he has right now and we wouldn't even be having this conversation this year, in fact he would probably be the leading MVP candidate.

 

I know it's hard to take a complicated view of things but this conversation is nowhere near as simple as "Josh just needs to stop throwing so many INTs." Not even close. For me the only thing I wish is that he would be more reserved against awful opponents like the Jets week 1 and the Chargers last week.

 

 

Mahomes for the first time in his career has to play with a below average group of skill players and OL. It isn't a coincidence he is throwing more stupid looking INTs this year. He has no choice but to push the envelope.

 

Like I've said many many times Allen and Mahomes the past 3 years or so have played at a very similar level. The difference in team results over that period is exclusively because of other factors that have nothing to do with QB play. Both offenses would likely be bottom of the league bad this year if not for the greatness of their QBs.

 

Dak took down his INT’s by a huge margin this season. Is he a worse QB than last year? 
 

By every measure, no.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Well you're not getting Montana or Brady.  Those guys were rhythm passers.  Dorsey tried to turn Allen into a rhythm passer.  It didn't work.

 

Favre won a Super Bowl, right? I think if Allen had Holmgrem (in his prime) as his coach, he'd be better than Favre.

 

But I want Josh Allen, with no comparisons to any other QB.  And in no way did I imply he was dumb.  Allen is supremely confident in has abilities and can make every throw on the field imaginable.  He has made throws that no other QB in NFL history has made.  He succeeds in breaking rules.

 

That's the guy I want.  Because I know if he screws up and throws an int, he's going to come back with three TDs passing and throwing.  

 

 

 

 

Maybe.  Or maybe throw away a game like the season opener against the Jets.

 

Favre won one.  And I recall him losing playoff games by critical mistakes.  I don’t want Josh to be that.

 

I am astounded by the number of fans who have so little faith in Josh that they don’t think he can play smarter.

Edited December 26, 2023 by oldmanfan

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Dak took down his INT’s by a huge margin this season. Is he a worse QB than last year? 
 

By every measure, no.

 

I'm not talking about a one season statistical bump. I'm talking about an entire play style. Allen is always going to have more INTs than most QBs, just like he is always going to have more TDs than most QBs.

[Maine-iac]

20 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

The outcome of the  Miinnesota game last season was determined by turnovers.  The NE playoff game wasn't determined by turnovers.

 

Catching on yet, Alternative game theory?  Or do we need another 'what if' scenario to make you feel more comfortable?

What in god's name are you talking about?  It isn't a what if scenario if it actually happened.  The Viking's game we turned the ball over and lost.  The NE playoff game we didn't turn the ball over and we killed them.  There's no "what if" scenario.  Bronco's game, Jet's game, even the Eagles we turned the ball over and gave up easy scores and lost.  You can argue the weight of the turnovers but you can't argue the fact that we turned the ball over and we lost.  Like someone else said show me a game with no turnovers and I'll show you a win 94 percent of the time. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

I won't, because I believe all these stats are not entirely causal.  You can't look at these stats in aggregate and then say, see, that's why the Bills lost a specific game. 

 

That's why I point to specific games to determine if turnovers are, in fact, the Achilles heel of this team.  I don't think they are. Do i like it when they happen, of course not.  But i believe the majority of their losses can be attributed to other factors than turnovers.

 

 

Okay.

 

You know, I happen to think lots of things that happen in games affect the outcome. If the Niners lose, Purdy’s 3 INT’s will be a big reason why. No matter what else happens.

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not talking about a one season statistical bump. I'm talking about an entire play style. Allen is always going to have more INTs than most QBs, just like he is always going to have more TDs than most QBs.

I disagree. Josh’s passing TD numbers are not huge statistical aberrations. His rushing TD’s are, and he ain’t throwing picks when he runs. 

[HappyDays]

Just now, FireChans said:

If the Niners lose, Purdy’s 3 INT’s will be a big reason why.

 

Only one of those was really an egregious pass, though. That's the point. That's why turnover worthy plays is tracked.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Only one of those was really an egregious pass, though. That's the point. That's why turnover worthy plays is tracked.

Turnovers still matter.
 

Some of them are luck for sure. Being lucky or being unlucky also matters lol.

[Perry Turtle]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Maybe.  Or maybe throw away a game like the season opener against the Jets.

 

Favre won one.  And I recall him losing playoff games by critical mistakes.  I don’t want Josh to be that.

 

I am astounded by the number of fans who have so little faith in Josh that they don’t think he can play smarter.

Well Allen walked off the field in OT with that game tied.  The Bills lost that game on a punt returned of a TD.

 

You accuse of others of believing Josh is dumb, but nobody I know is saying that.

 

Allen is an incredibly intelligent player.  He has something like 125+ more career total TDs than interceptions. You don't post numbers like that if you're not intelligent.

 

Do you believe Allen is playing dumb?  Every player makes mistakes, Allen's no different, but he's pretty damn good at making up for those mistakes.  The guy is the biggest reset button in the league.

 

Seems like the only resolution that most want on this thread is to have Allen never throw another interception again.  I mean, he scored three TDs against the Chargers, but because the game was close and Allen threw a pick, everybody wants to obsess on that.

 

If you don't think Allen plays smartly, maybe you should take a look at the throws he makes rather than the ones he misses.  He's a pretty spectacular QB.

[Perry Turtle]

 

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay.

 

You know, I happen to think lots of things that happen in games affect the outcome. If the Niners lose, Purdy’s 3 INT’s will be a big reason why. No matter what else happens.

I disagree. Josh’s passing TD numbers are not huge statistical aberrations. His rushing TD’s are, and he ain’t throwing picks when he runs. 

For his career, Allen has 100 more passing TDs than ints.  So he's pretty damn good throwing the ball too.

 

if you want to analyze the 49ers game when it ends, and determine those turnovers are the reason for a loss, awesome.  I got no problem analyzing specific game stats to determine what impacted the outcome.

 

If you want to throw out an aggregated stat, like, say,  94% of teams who don't turn the ball over win, well I probably want to continue the conversation to learn if that stat proved true in this specific game.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Turnovers still matter.
 

Some of them are luck for sure. Being lucky or being unlucky also matters lol.

 

I'm well aware turnovers matter lol. I'm just saying the turnovers conversation around Josh Allen this year in particular is WAY overblown. He has like 12 interceptable passes thrown this year. That is not a bad rate at all when he's also cashing in 40+ TDs and carrying a talent deficient offense on his back. Every single year the best QBs in the league also top the INTs chart. Allen is usually a couple ahead of the others but that slight difference is not really significant in the context of an entire season. His difference in total TDs on the other hand is massively significant.