Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[FireChans]

57 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

facts

 

now can you write this in crayon for @FireChans pls

Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP

Can't believe he let down McCarthy like that

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Can't believe he let down McCarthy like that

Get this man some help, he only has Ceedee Lamb, Gallup, Ferguson, and a top 5 defense.

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Get this man some help, he only has Ceedee Lamb, Gallup, Ferguson, and a top 5 defense.

But seriously swap Allen for Dak today and Cowboys win pretty comfortably i think

 

 

His ability to improvise in a muddy pocket gets them out of a lot of those spots

[mrags]

Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread?

[Perry Turtle]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread?

Probably.  By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses.  If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference.

 

But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess.

[BigDingus]

46 minutes ago, mrags said:

Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread?

 

No, this is a "Bills turn the ball over way too much," and "It's not playcalling/coaches/defense choking" thread. 

 

Allen's not the only guy on this team turning the ball over. He's one of the few QBs that can't seem to go 2 games in a row without throwing an INT, but that's not the point. Look at the stats, and you quickly see why we lose/struggle against "Bad" teams.

 

Nearly lost to the abysmal Giants (with Tyrod Taylor)

Nearly lost to the abysmal Chargers (without Herbert or Keenan Allen, the week after the awful Raiders hung 60 points on them)

Lost to the Jets & Zach Wilson)

Lost to the abysmal Patriots & Mac Jones

Lost to the mediocre Broncos at home

 

All because we keep spotting these teams a ton of extra opportunities. When we protect the football, suddenly we average 14 more points per game & blow people out! Crazy, I know.

 

I don't care if Josh wins MVP, I prefer to watch the Bills succeed in the playoffs. Purdy or CMC are winning anyway, so I just want to see this team not fail in January again.

 

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

No, this is a "Bills turn the ball over way too much," and "It's not playcalling/coaches/defense choking" thread. 

 

Allen's not the only guy on this team turning the ball over. He's one of the few QBs that can't seem to go 2 games in a row without throwing an INT, but that's not the point. Look at the stats, and you quickly see why we lose/struggle against "Bad" teams.

 

Nearly lost to the abysmal Giants (with Tyrod Taylor)

Nearly lost to the abysmal Chargers (without Herbert or Keenan Allen, the week after the awful Raiders hung 60 points on them)

Lost to the Jets & Zach Wilson)

Lost to the abysmal Patriots & Mac Jones

Lost to the mediocre Broncos at home

 

All because we keep spotting these teams a ton of extra opportunities. When we protect the football, suddenly we average 14 more points per game & blow people out! Crazy, I know.

 

I don't care if Josh wins MVP, I prefer to watch the Bills succeed in the playoffs. Purdy or CMC are winning anyway, so I just want to see this team not fail in January again.

 

I was just joking. no need to assume anything about what I posted. 
 

yes. This entire team has not only given up a crap ton of turnovers. Not just Allen but the RBs. The WRs. The returners. Everyone. 
 

But….. I would like to point out that the take that “it’s not a coaching” thread may be incorrect. The Bills have lost a historically unbalanced number of fumbles. It’s practically impossible to lose as many as we have. At some point the “bad bounce” “bad luck” argument doesn’t hold water. At some point we need to ask the question as to why we are historically bad at fumbling and recovering fumbles. Or throwing Ints for that matter. Somewhere, coaching has to be held accountable. 

[FireChans]

52 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Probably.  By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses.  If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference.

 

But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess.

Dak walked off the field today with a lead, crown this man the MVP already!

[Bermuda Triangle]

Seems like not forcing/producing turnovers in close games is a fairly significant issue as well,

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

Probably.  By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses.  If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference.

 

But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess.

Heck we didn’t even need all three of those…just one and we’re right back in the drivers seat for the division without needing a Miami loss 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP

 

You mean other than not being able to execute a simple handoff on the goalline when they are about to score on the first possession of the game?

[Big Blitz]

Josh has 12 INTs since the week 1 debacle of a game plan (55 drop backs against the Jets).  Dorsey should have been fired after that imo.  


12 INTs in the 14 games since week 1.  Not a big deal especially since it feels like most are never in a spot that’s hurt us.   
 

Several INTs have been arm punts and one was McD wanting to throw a Hail Mary before halftime for some reason.

 

 

FYI anyone talking about all Flacco’s INTs so far?   Exactly.  
 

He has SEVEN in 4 games.  And a fumble.  That won’t be the narrative.  The narrative should be if De$ean Wat$on told them he was ready to play tomorrow they would go with Flacco over him.  
 

Anyway all Allen does is win.  That’s all that matters.  

Edited December 26, 2023 by Big Blitz

[MJS]

10 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams

Yeah. Turnovers kill every team, including the Bills. It is the #1 thing they need to fix. They have to take care of the ball better. Period.

[ProcessTruster]

15 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

 Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much.  Allen has a turnover in almost every single game.  His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. 

this team lives (and dies) with Josh.  if he goes sugar high Josh, we lose .  just hope he becomes late career Elway during the playoffs and just hands the ball off 

[Billy Claude]

Folks who think that there's nothing that can be done for the turnovers must think that Allen is a real idiot.

 

Is it really impossible for Allen to learn enough after 6 years to reduce his turnover by 20% without crimping his style?  He has already reduced his fumbles from 13 last year to 4 this year. Why can't he cut his interceptions a little bit also? One would have hoped his judgement could be improved to that extent.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Billy Claude]

10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

12 INTs in the 14 games since week 1.  Not a big deal especially since it feels like most are never in a spot that’s hurt us.

 

That's really selective memory.  I guess you are throwing out the first Jets game, but even with the Charger's game; Bills are up 14-10, Chargers offense hasn't done much since the opening drive. Allen throws int and the Chargers get a field goal on the short field to make it 14-13. Do you need to go for the jugular there?   Eagles game;  Bills up 24-21, Allen throws interception, Eagles score to take the lead at 28-24.  Both of these  interceptions were on second down. 

 

These are the ones that I came up with off the top of my head but there were other cases where the Bills offense finally seem to be getting some rhythm only for the momentum to be completely killed due to a totally unforced turnover. Obviously the first Jets game this year and last year's Miami game comes to mind but there were others this year.  When multiple opponents talk about how they bait Allen into interceptions, you've got a problem and it should be a problem that can be easily fixed (maybe it has -- no one has said that during the 2nd half of the season).

 

I just don't understand the blind hero worship where one has to ignore or come up with an excuse for everything that your "guy" does (not just Allen, but in general).  This does not mean I hate Allen.  He is an elite QB -- the Bills obviously would be nowhere without him, however, he can be an all time great if he just fixes some flaws.  I see no reason why he can't reduce his turnovers a bit without killing his style.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude

[FireChans]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

You mean other than not being able to execute a simple handoff on the goalline when they are about to score on the first possession of the game?

Huh? He walked off the field with the lead.

[Freak-O]

Some of Allen’s interceptions have more or less been punts on third and long. Those are not so bad and inflate the numbers. Others have been disastrously poor however and swung the momentum of entire games. 

[RichRiderBills]

21 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

Thanks for this post and the research.

 

I'll say this to one of your final points:

 

Turnovers be damned, Josh had would be game winners wrapped up w a bow and handed it over w less than 2 min the game to D or ST to seal up, and they blew it.  To your point, these were after long drives where the D was well rested. 

 

This happened in Pats and Broncos AND Eagles games. That's 3 losses! Not to mention Jags game had some long 2nd half drives where the D had plenty of rest. 

27 minutes ago, Freak-O said:

Some of Allen’s interceptions have more or less been punts on third and long. Those are not so bad and inflate the numbers. Others have been disastrously poor however and swung the momentum of entire games. 

 

The first play int to Pats , first play Cook fumble by Cook to Broncos. And the last Fumble by Allen to Jets come to mind. 

Edited December 25, 2023 by RichRiderBills