Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 2:37 AM, Maine-iac said:

What in god's name are you talking about?  It isn't a what if scenario if it actually happened.  The Viking's game we turned the ball over and lost.  The NE playoff game we didn't turn the ball over and we killed them.  There's no "what if" scenario.  Bronco's game, Jet's game, even the Eagles we turned the ball over and gave up easy scores and lost.  You can argue the weight of the turnovers but you can't argue the fact that we turned the ball over and we lost.  Like someone else said show me a game with no turnovers and I'll show you a win 94 percent of the time. 

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Pretty simple.  The Bills turned the ball over on the goalline.  The Vikings scored.  The Bills lost.  That turnover was a key factor in the loss.

 

The Patriots turned the ball over twice.  But the Bills so throughly outplayed the Patriots that the turnovers were not a determining factor in the game.  The Bills didn't need the turnovers to win.  Things like the Bills pass completion percentage and third down efficiency played a bigger role in determining the outcome of that game.

 

 

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:00 AM, Perry Turtle said:

 

For his career, Allen has 100 more passing TDs than ints.  So he's pretty damn good throwing the ball too.

 

if you want to analyze the 49ers game when it ends, and determine those turnovers are the reason for a loss, awesome.  I got no problem analyzing specific game stats to determine what impacted the outcome.

 

If you want to throw out an aggregated stat, like, say,  94% of teams who don't turn the ball over win, well I probably want to continue the conversation to learn if that stat proved true in this specific game.

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No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. 

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:07 AM, FireChans said:

No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. 

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So the Ravens are winning this game?

[Maine-iac]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:07 AM, FireChans said:

No, what I’m saying is, by definition, those TO’s have ALREADY affected the outcome. 

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.... but only if Purdy doesn't score a TD and put them ahead.  If Purdy throws a TD and walks off and the Raven's score again and win none of Purdy's turnovers count.

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:08 AM, Perry Turtle said:

So the Ravens are winning this game?

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Probably, yeah.

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:11 AM, Maine-iac said:

.... but only if Purdy doesn't score a TD and put them ahead.  If Purdy throws a TD and walks off and the Raven's score again and win none of Purdy's turnovers count.

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Now you're getting it! 😄

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:12 AM, FireChans said:

Probably, yeah.

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Yeah, I think the Ravens are the better team.

 

Hope they do the same thing to Miami next week.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:13 AM, Perry Turtle said:

Now you're getting it! 😄

Yeah, I think the Ravens are the better team.

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I think that the QB throwing 4 picks is a huge reason they are about to get blown out.

 

crazy concept.

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:16 AM, FireChans said:

I think that the QB throwing 4 picks is a huge reason they are about to get blown out.

 

crazy concept.

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In this case, it's not.

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:18 AM, Perry Turtle said:

In this case, it's not.

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IN EVERY CASE ITS NOT.

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:18 AM, FireChans said:

IN EVERY CASE ITS NOT.

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NO IT'S NOT.  

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:19 AM, Perry Turtle said:

NO IT'S NOT.  

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You’re just wrong.

 

there’s no other way to describe it. There’s no statistical analysis that supports your position that turnovers EVER don’t matter. 
 

Nothing. 

[TBBills Fan]

So you are saying the turnover battle is one of the most important metrics that determines winning and losing?

 

You don't say?

 

 

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:22 AM, FireChans said:

You’re just wrong.

 

there’s no other way to describe it. There’s no statistical analysis that supports your position that turnovers EVER don’t matter. 
 

Nothing. 

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I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter.  There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered.  But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter.  

 

Can I find a case where they didn't  matter?

 

Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night.  This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game.

 

So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case.  Right?  

 

So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE.

 

 

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:29 AM, TBBills Fan said:

So you are saying the turnover battle is one of the most important metrics that determines winning and losing?

 

You don't say?

 

 

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It depends. 😉

[TBBills Fan]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:33 AM, Perry Turtle said:

I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter.  There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered.  But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter.  

 

Can I find a case where they didn't  matter?

 

Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night.  This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game.

 

So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case.  Right?  

 

So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE.

 

 

It depends. 😉

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 One of the most important-always

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:33 AM, Perry Turtle said:

I never said that turnovers don't EVER matter.  There are definitely cases where they do matter and I gave an example where I believed they matrered.  But there ARE several cases where they DON'T matter.  

 

Can I find a case where they didn't  matter?

 

Hmm, I have to go all the way back to um, Saturday night.  This obscure team, the Buffalo Bills (ever hear of them) lost the turnover battle 0-3 to the Chargers, but WON the game.

 

So I guess that turnovers don't matter in EVERY case.  Right?  

 

So I guess you are WRONG that turnovers matter in EVERY CASE.

 

 

It depends. 😉

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Those turnovers DID matter lol.

[Perry Turtle]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:40 AM, FireChans said:

Those turnovers DID matter lol.

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To whom? 😄  Not to the team.  The W is posted in the standings.  They're on to New England.

 

Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week.  So there's that.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:46 AM, Perry Turtle said:

To whom? 😄  Not to the team.  The W is posted in the standings.  They're on to New England.

 

Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week.  So there's that.

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This is hilarious circular logic.

[Mikie2times]

The 49ers have multiple turnovers in scoring position and it had no impact on the game. Got it. Holy crap.  

[Perry Turtle]

 

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:54 AM, Mikie2times said:

The 49ers have multiple turnovers in scoring position and it had no impact on the game. Got it. Holy crap.  

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No one ever said that in reference to the 49ers game.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[FireChans]

  On 12/26/2023 at 3:46 AM, Perry Turtle said:

To whom? 😄  Not to the team.  The W is posted in the standings.  They're on to New England.

 

Nick Wright will probably bring it up to make himself feel better about Mahomes this week.  So there's that.

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If TO’s don’t matter in wins, then TD’s don’t matter in losses. 
 

 

You really painted yourself in a corner there lol