Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[BigDingus]

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams

I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh

[T.E.]

Their inability to take care of the ball, coupled with their shaky special teams, is going to rear its head eventually, I'm afraid.

[Maine-iac]

 Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much.  Allen has a turnover in almost every single game.  His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. 

[stevestojan]

If you give the other team the ball a lot, it doesn’t bode well for your chances of winning? 
 

Huh. If someone had given Ken Dorsey this groundbreaking data, he just might still have a job. 

[yall]

28 minutes ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

Their inability to take care of the ball, coupled with their shaky special teams, is going to rear its head eventually, I'm afraid.

Eventually?

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

 Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much.  Allen has a turnover in almost every single game.  His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. 

One thing I will say about Brady is he did a better job protecting us from ourselves yesterday. It was a very similar game as the Jets opener but we kept running vs going into pure pass mode as we have in the past. 

[Maine-iac]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

One thing I will say about Brady is he did a better job protecting us from ourselves yesterday. It was a very similar game as the Jets opener but we kept running vs going into pure pass mode as we have in the past. 

This 

 

It's probably the reason we won.  We throw another 20 times instead of running and I'm guessing we have a lot more 3rd and longs and probably a couple more turnovers.  The run game wasn't as explosive as the Cowboys game but we were grinding just fine.  

[T.E.]

23 minutes ago, yall said:

Eventually?

I mean like they're going to lose a playoff game because of special teams

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

Just looking at the correlation for all the people who want to throw it all the time we are 2 and 5 when Allen throws it 38 times or more and 8 and 1 when he throws it less than 38 times.  If you are going to throw it 40 or 50 times your short passing game better be an extension of your running game and our isn't.  I've seen our passing game do it but even when it's there I don't trust Josh to take it enough to kill defenses with it.  Inevitably he'll run away from someone and hit a long TD that no one else could throw but as exciting as it is I'm not sure it's a game plan.  If we punished defenses with catch and run passes to Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir then Davis and Diggs wouldn't be fighting shell coverages every play.

[ToGoGo]

BigDingus is a great username for the OP. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

This 

 

It's probably the reason we won.  We throw another 20 times instead of running and I'm guessing we have a lot more 3rd and longs and probably a couple more turnovers.  The run game wasn't as explosive as the Cowboys game but we were grinding just fine.  

but I thought the Chargers had a poor pass defense? Why not exploit it? Dallas had one of the worst rush defenses and we exploited that weakness.

 

Also seems like Kincaid has disappeared since Brady took over.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

but I thought the Chargers had a poor pass defense? Why not exploit it? Dallas had one of the worst rush defenses and we exploited that weakness.

 

 

If you watched the game then poor pass defense or not we had one good drive the whole first half and 6 of the 8 plays were rushing plays.  We had one other TD in the first half and that was a one play broken scramble play drive.  We put together another drive  for a TD in the second half and 6 out the 10 plays on that drive were runs.  I don't think it is as simple as saying statistically they are good or bad at something and therefore we will just do that and it will just work.  Statistically we played a number of teams that should have been short work and we either had to pull it out in the 4th quarter or lost.  Our pass protection wasn't great and Josh was back to holding the ball and waiting on guys to come open deeper and getting pressured a lot.  Sometimes guys open up and TD(to Davis) and sometimes a guy comes open and between the pressure and the difficulty of the throw you just turn it over (Diggs).

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

If you watched the game then poor pass defense or not we had one good drive the whole first half and 6 of the 8 plays were rushing plays.  We had one other TD in the first half and that was a one play broken scramble play drive.  We put together another drive  for a TD in the second half and 6 out the 10 plays on that drive were runs.  I don't think it is as simple as saying statistically they are good or bad at something and therefore we will just do that and it will just work.  Statistically we played a number of teams that should have been short work and we either had to pull it out in the 4th quarter or lost.  Our pass protection wasn't great and Josh was back to holding the ball and waiting on guys to come open deeper and getting pressured a lot.  Sometimes guys open up and TD(to Davis) and sometimes a guy comes open and between the pressure and the difficulty of the throw you just turn it over (Diggs).

Wonder if some of that has to do with Diggs not being on the field for nearly half the plays. There was one drive in the second half in particular where Diggs was not on the field for 1st or 2nd down to start the drive. 
 

not sure I agree with having Diggs on the sideline so much. They seem to be playing Sheffield over him in a lot of these sets without Diggs .

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. 
 

Turnovers will always matter. 

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh

Elite coaching the difference?

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. 
 

Turnovers will always matter. 

Elite coaching the difference?

lol

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh

Yeah that is what I was going to say. Allen giveth and he taketh away. Allen can still win you the game even when he plays poorly. If he doesn't play poorly it is near impossible to beat the Bills ( Eagles needed miraculous FG, two defensive collapses, and a bad Davis route).

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Yeah that is what I was going to say. Allen giveth and he taketh away. Allen can still win you the game even when he plays poorly. If he doesn't play poorly it is near impossible to beat the Bills ( Eagles needed miraculous FG, two defensive collapses, and a bad Davis route).

facts

 

now can you write this in crayon for @FireChans pls

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh

 

Most teams would likely be 1-7