4 game stretch revisited

[fergie's ire]

7 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Thought this might be a good topic to discuss. I know other here are much more knowledge than I. I would very much appreciate input. 

 

Brady has been the OC for three games now. The first two games the offense looked much different. Cook running and passing catching, more motion, commitment to the run game, great play calls, and a more cohesive offense in rhythm. 

 

However, the Bills offense vs the Chargers looked much different. They struggled to move the ball. Failed run schemes and disguises, no passes to RBs, etc...Seems like most of the big chunk plays were improvised. 

 

I know every game is different. Just seems like the Bills offense struggled a lot more. The Chargers offense isn't elite and truthfully not very good. 

 

I am wondering what happened here? Bad game? Poor play calling? Execution errors? Is Brady's offense now more exposed due to game film? Sort of speak is the honeymoon period over? 

 

Just a bit concerned maybe paranoid. 

 

Thanks.

I actually felt like this was the game where Brady made the greatest difference.  We've seen games where Josh and the offense seem off.  However, in past games, they would seem to press and try to make the hero plays to spark things.  There was some of that in this game with success (to Davis) and failure (to Diggs), but the key drive to me was the one to take the lead in the first half.  They had quite a few runs and some short passes and it just seemed like a calming "we're in control" drive that changed the mood of the game.  It felt like they were trying to do that again with an easy first down in the second half drive before the penalty disasters (tripping and holding).  The ability to catch their breath and calmly impose their will because they are the better team is something that seemed lacking in the past.

[PBF81]

51 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

You think Brady has faced an easier set of games than what the Bills faced last year? Jets, Chiefs, and Cowboys all have good-great defenses, Eagles have a great run defense (they give up a lot of passing yards though) and yeah they should’ve done better against the chargers. That’s not an easy stretch to start as the OC.

 

Im also not sure about saying this AFC is the weakest it’s been in years. I was listening to a podcast the other day talking about this and they were talking about this. The perception is since it’s not Mahomes, Allen, or Burrow at the top it seems weaker but there are still very strong teams. I do agree with you though that I do like the Bills chances against any team in the AFC (or NFC for that matter).

 

Yeah, I left the analysis up to the reader there.  

 

As for MO, when Baltimore is the strongest AFC team, then it's a weak field given their offensive skills-position players.  As you can see, my emphasis was on offense.  

 

As to the teams Brady's faced, the SOS was for the entire season, so take that into consideration.  

But the current ranks of the rushing defenses the we've faced are 8th, 15th, 18th, 19th, and 24th.  (Avg. = 17th) 

The current ranks of those five scoring defenses are 3rd, 5th, 14th, 26th, and 27th.   (Avg. = 15th) 

The current ranks of those five yardage defenses are 3rd, 5th 8th, 17th, and 29th.   (Avg. = 12th) 

The current ranks of those five teams in 1st-Downs allowed are 2nd, 8th, 12th, 21st, and 29th.   (Avg. = 14th). 

 

At a quick glance the doesn't seem to be out of line with the rest of the schedule on average.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said:

Im also not sure about saying this AFC is the weakest it’s been in years. I was listening to a podcast the other day talking about this and they were talking about this. The perception is since it’s not Mahomes, Allen, or Burrow at the top it seems weaker but there are still very strong teams. I do agree with you though that I do like the Bills chances against any team in the AFC (or NFC for that matter).

 

 

And BTW, to provide a more in-depth answer to that part, my perspective is that of all of the teams presently, and realistically, in the race for AFC playoff spots, we have strengths in just about every category across the board.  

 

QB:  Apart from Mahomes (more on KC below), we have Allen vs. Jackson, Lawrence, Too, Flacco, Minshew, Stroud, Pickett, and Browning 

 

RB:  Cook has more rushing yards than any other AFC RB, and better yards-per-carry than all but Jaylen Warren on Pittsburgh.  

 

WRs:  Of all of the receivers in the top-100 for all of those teams ... 

 

We have Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook 

Baltimore has Flowers, Beckham, and Andrews 

Cincy has Chase, Higgins, and Boyd 

Cleveland has Cooper, Njoku, and Moore 

Houston has Collins, Dell, Schultz, and Brown 

Indy has Downs and Pierce 

Jax has Ridley, Kirk, Engram, and Etienne 

KC has Kelce and Rice 

Miami has Hill and Waddle 

Pitt has Pickens and Johnson 

 

Cook and Etienne are the only two RBs among the top-100 (on those teams) in that mix, and Cook's better than Etienne across all cats.  

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Thought this might be a good topic to discuss. I know other here are much more knowledge than I. I would very much appreciate input. 

 

Brady has been the OC for three games now. The first two games the offense looked much different. Cook running and passing catching, more motion, commitment to the run game, great play calls, and a more cohesive offense in rhythm. 

 

However, the Bills offense vs the Chargers looked much different. They struggled to move the ball. Failed run schemes and disguises, no passes to RBs, etc...Seems like most of the big chunk plays were improvised. 

 

I know every game is different. Just seems like the Bills offense struggled a lot more. The Chargers offense isn't elite and truthfully not very good. 

 

I am wondering what happened here? Bad game? Poor play calling? Execution errors? Is Brady's offense now more exposed due to game film? Sort of speak is the honeymoon period over? 

 

Just a bit concerned maybe paranoid. 

 

Thanks.

The Bills were just flat.. it happens.. Next week the only concern the Bills O will have is blocking Baremore and Uche and allowing Allen time to shred the Pats JAG secondary.  Running IMO probably won’t be effective against the Pats. 

[CA OC Bills Fan]

I felt Brady called a horrible game and deserves much of the blame for the Bills almost losing. 

 

Of course the turnovers were the primary reason for the close game and no, I'm not blaming Brady for those. But, the jumbo package with Edwards eligible seemed to almost always get two yards but they kept calling it again and again. Allen had a 71.4% completion rate but they only passed 21 times. I'm looking forward to listening to Joe Marino's Locked on Bills to hear what he says about the jumbo package but I was groaning every time the referee announced "76 is reporting as eligible" on the second half.

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

It is an interesting topic to discuss.  To start, any semblance of newness always takes a handful of games, which can vary in number, for a steady-state to emerge.  

 

At the end of the day however, the needle hasn't moved that much on game metrics.  Brady's been the OC for the past five games, started with the Jets game.  Since then we've averaged 27.8 PPG contrasted with the 26.2 PPG prior to that, for a marginal +1.6, an improvement but hardly earth-shattering, and still down from last season's 28.4 and with an easier schedule as well. 

Our 1st-Downs have also increased marginally from 22 to 23.2, a +1.2.  

Our total yards haven't increased at all for all intents and purposes, having bumped from 380 to 382.  

 

The biggest difference as you point out is our running game, with Cook obviously being our primary ball carrier.  His carries have increased from 12 to 17.6 per game on average.  His receptions have increased by 1 from an average 2.8 to 3.8.  So in that sense there's somewhat more balance to the offense run/pass.  

 

The Dallas game is what has skewed everything statistically for both him and the team.  In the other four games Cook has averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards-per-carry.  In all four of those games he's got 244 rushing yards, in the Dallas game he had 179 on 7.2 YPC.  His YPC in the other four games were 4.3, 2.7, 5.8, and 3.5, with that 5.8 being his low carry (10) game in which he had 11, 12, and 15-yard runs.  

 

His receptions have increased from an average 2.4 to 3.1, but his receiving yards have increased to 42.2 from 22.2, nearly doubling.  Having said that, in our zero-sum-game of the same yards per game, Diggs' production has averaged a mere 4.6 receptions for an average of 40.4 yards, down from 7.3 catches for 86.8 YPG, fewer than half the yards.  On a season, under Brady so far, Diggs' 17-game average is 78 catches for 687 yards and 3 TDs.  

 

Having said that, our average number of pass attempts has dropped by 12 from 45.5 to 33.6, while our average number of carries has increased by 15 from 22.4 to 37.4. A good chunk of that is the skewed Dallas game where we ran 49 times and had only 16 pass plays.  Nonetheless.  

 

We'll be fully steady-state by the end of the season if we aren't already.  

 

The referendum on this season is going to come down to the playoffs, against what is generally considered to be the weakest field in the AFC at least since Allen emerged in 2020.  There's no dominant team and with Allen we arguably have the best offense in the AFC and more than a good enough defense to compliment it.  

 

 

 

Great stuff. I think turnovers also have played a part in the turnaround.

 

To the OPs thesis, yes there is a ton of luck involved in sports. Anyone who's played sports or followed sports for a long time knows this. Bad luck can last an entire season OR MORE. Sample size and regression/progression to the mean average can take what sometimes seems like forever.

 

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

I suspect Bieniemy will get an interview if he is interested.  He has a couple of rings, just saying.

 

Don't forget FWIW Bieniemy was a non-play calling OC with the Chiefs.

 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

To the OPs thesis, yes there is a ton of luck involved in sports. Anyone who's played sports or followed sports for a long time knows this. Bad luck can last an entire season OR MORE. Sample size and regression/progression to the mean average can take what sometimes seems like forever.

 

There is for sure.  Also, so are inuries.  Consider, the Chargers were just without Herbert, Allen, and Bosa, three of the best at their positions in the league.  ... and others.  aka we're not the only team in the league to sustain key injuries.  

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

23 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Or a Gabe Davis turn the right way in OT

Or Josh Allen throw it the right way? They know but it’s on them both to read each other. 

[RobbRiddick]

oldmanfan gives this stretch a D-

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

The Bills were just flat.. it happens.. Next week the only concern the Bills O will have is blocking Baremore and Uche and allowing Allen time to shred the Pats JAG secondary.  Running IMO probably won’t be effective against the Pats. 

I'm not buying the "flat" explanation. It wasn't the like  fourth game of the season.  The Bills were fighting for their playoff lives. That should never happen in that type of circumstance. No way no how!!!

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not buying the "flat" explanation. It wasn't the like  fourth game of the season.  The Bills were fighting for their playoff lives. That should never happen in that type of circumstance. No way no how!!!

It’s hard to stay up like they have been for the last 3 weeks. Sooner or later you come back down for a game.. better now than the first playoff game. 

[Rockinon]

I think this week made up for a lot of the bad luck this season. Just unbelievable how many games went our way.

[fan_in_tx]

16 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Thought this might be a good topic to discuss. I know other here are much more knowledge than I. I would very much appreciate input. 

 

Brady has been the OC for three games now. The first two games the offense looked much different. Cook running and passing catching, more motion, commitment to the run game, great play calls, and a more cohesive offense in rhythm. 

 

However, the Bills offense vs the Chargers looked much different. They struggled to move the ball. Failed run schemes and disguises, no passes to RBs, etc...Seems like most of the big chunk plays were improvised. 

 

I know every game is different. Just seems like the Bills offense struggled a lot more. The Chargers offense isn't elite and truthfully not very good. 

 

I am wondering what happened here? Bad game? Poor play calling? Execution errors? Is Brady's offense now more exposed due to game film? Sort of speak is the honeymoon period over? 

 

Just a bit concerned maybe paranoid. 

 

Thanks.

I recalled in the game that one of the announcers noted the chargers wheee playing a totally different defensive scheme than what they have shown previously.   Quite possible that our game plan was not up to speed with the new scheme....

[JGMcD2]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

There is for sure.  Also, so are inuries.  Consider, the Chargers were just without Herbert, Allen, and Bosa, three of the best at their positions in the league.  ... and others.  aka we're not the only team in the league to sustain key injuries.  

 

 

Yeah, that’s fair. Everyone has key injuries for. We just had our key injuries occur in Week 4/5 not Week 14/15. Makes a huge difference when it’s 13 weeks instead of 3 without key starters. 

Edited December 25, 2023 by JGMcD2

[newcam2012]

50 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

It’s hard to stay up like they have been for the last 3 weeks. Sooner or later you come back down for a game.. better now than the first playoff game. 

I disagree. These are well paid athletes who have been mentally trained for big moments and big games. Yes, they are human but I'm not buying they were "flat" in a huge game which could have sealed their fate.  

 

If they were " flat" as you say the Bills need new coaching and players. Being "flat" is totally unacceptable.

 

I didn't see a flat team. I a Charger team playing harder. I saw a Bills team that was getting beat too often at the line of scrimmage. I saw a team making unforced errors. I saw the refs making some questionable calls that hurt the Bills. 

 

I totally disagree with your premise. 

[Dan]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not buying the "flat" explanation. It wasn't the like  fourth game of the season.  The Bills were fighting for their playoff lives. That should never happen in that type of circumstance. No way no how!!!

Maybe not flat.. maybe sick?    Cook missed some time with illness, maybe others weren’t feeling well but not bad enough to miss time?   
 

Tis that time of the year…

[Mikie2times]

6 hours ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

I felt Brady called a horrible game and deserves much of the blame for the Bills almost losing. 

 

Of course the turnovers were the primary reason for the close game and no, I'm not blaming Brady for those. But, the jumbo package with Edwards eligible seemed to almost always get two yards but they kept calling it again and again. Allen had a 71.4% completion rate but they only passed 21 times. I'm looking forward to listening to Joe Marino's Locked on Bills to hear what he says about the jumbo package but I was groaning every time the referee announced "76 is reporting as eligible" on the second half.

It's like being stuck in the snow. In the past we would just gas it and try and get out but it only got worse. This time we methodically worked our way out and it wasn't pretty or exciting but it worked.

 

Historically these are the games we throw 50 times, Josh tacks on a few more INT's and we lose. See Jets game. I thought the conservative play calling was just what we needed.  

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not buying the "flat" explanation. It wasn't the like  fourth game of the season.  The Bills were fighting for their playoff lives. That should never happen in that type of circumstance. No way no how!!!

 

They were on a short week and had to fly across the country.  That takes a toll.  Chargers defense played them different than other teams had.  Probably weren't expecting it.

 

They had 3 turnovers... but they also battled back from 3 turnovers while getting none of their own.  Thats not easy to do.

[Tenhigh]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They were on a short week and had to fly across the country.  That takes a toll.  Chargers defense played them different than other teams had.  Probably weren't expecting it.

 

They had 3 turnovers... but they also battled back from 3 turnovers while getting none of their own.  Thats not easy to do.

I agree. It was almost a cliche how much of a trap game this was. You forgot to add that they just crushed one of the league's best teams, the Chargers were playing with nothing to lose and were leaving it all on the field for their interim HC.

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah, that’s fair. Everyone has key injuries for. We just had our key injuries occur in Week 4/5 not Week 14/15. Makes a huge difference when it’s 13 weeks instead of 3 without key starters. 

 

There are a lot of ways someone could argue that.  First, we didn't lose Allen.  We also had adequate depth, clearly, and we didn't lose our key players on the cusp of making the playoffs.  

 

At any rate, currently, I'd take our talent on offense over that of any team in the AFC right now.