Kickers are 26/27 in FGs against us this year

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

[Playoffs?]

Thank you Ed Oliver!  That’s all I have to say about that. 

[pigpen65]

1 minute ago, Playoffs? said:

Thank you Ed Oliver!  That’s all I have to say about that. 

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

[Dan in Owego]

1 minute ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Jeez crazy 🤔 it really is hard to believe, damn😜

[Special K]

Dicker the Kicker is pretty impressive....you know if he got another chance there was no way he was going to miss it

[Matt_In_NH]

It does feel like luck has not been on our side so far this year.  

[djp14150]

11 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Now we blame the FGs against….

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just now, djp14150 said:

Now we blame the FGs against….

 

Blame?  It's just an observation about variance.  96% is a couple standard deviations above expected.

[Doc Brown]

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Yeah I really thought they only needed 20 yards to win. Dicker wasn’t gonna miss the game winning 67 yarder. 

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

I think it was a block in that Tampa bay game 

[gobills404]

That’s neat, but I don’t understand what “negative variance” means so I’m just gonna blame McDermott

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

 

Yep

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/shaq-lawson-blocks-chase-mclaughlin-s-50-yard-fg-attempt

[BuffaloRebound]

Even when they miss we have 12 men on field.  

[RiotAct]

22 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:

Von Miller was going about 25% speed on that play. I don't even know what the point of him dressing for games is. But yeah, thank you Ed Oliver. And Bernard. 

he has to get up to game speed again, at the detriment of the team.  Duh!

[mannc]

The NFL should explore a rule change, in order to speed up games and limit injuries: Any Bills opponent can opt to simply take an automatic 3 points anywhere inside the Bills’ 40-yard line, any time of the game, any weather conditions, without the kicker having to actually take the field. Kinda like an intentional walk in baseball…why waste people’s time with kick that’s guaranteed to be good anyway?  Same with 1-point conversions…

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I can’t remember the miss.  Wasn’t it a block?

Yes, I believe so.  And it’s not just this year…the phenomenon of Bills’ opposing kicker infallibility goes back a long time…

[Rubes]

36 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome.  It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season.  Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.

 

But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?  

Thank you for looking that up. I was thinking of doing it myself after this game, since it seemed to me as well that other teams just don’t seem to miss (unless we have 12 men on the field).
 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

6 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Thank you for looking that up. I was thinking of doing it myself after this game, since it seemed to me as well that other teams just don’t seem to miss (unless we have 12 men on the field).
 

 

The kick by Elliott in the Eagles game was the craziest.  61 yards in the wind and rain.  Low line drive that looks like it wants to knuckle but just powers through.  There's no way that was higher than a 20% probability kick.

[BillsGuyOutWest]

Comes full circle in Feb when the opposing kicker misses the game winner against us wide left. 
 

For real good observation, it’s been driving me nuts all year. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by BillsGuyOutWest

[Warcodered]

57 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

That’s neat, but I don’t understand what “negative variance” means so I’m just gonna blame McDermott

If I'm understanding the feeling it's basically like when on one of those deep passes against us where it bounces off our DB into the WRs hands for a TD. Somebody did something to piss off Lady Luck.