The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[Gugny]

22 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

Like many words, probable has multiple meanings.

I even lowered expectations by saying it "somewhat" or "in some part" had some grounds for believing it could happen.

 

So yeah, it means exactly what I intended, Grungy.

 

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But…… Mason Rudolph

 

I know, but the fact remains.

 

If the Bucs beat the Jags, same.

If the Falcons beat the Colts, same.

If the Texans beat the Browns, same.

If the Cowboys beat the Dolphins, same (Division).

 

IF that all goes bad there are 5 more scenarios next week.

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

it’s a really odd place for chachi to dig in his heels 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

Indulge me. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is eager to learn this secret “other definition” of probable. 
 

I suppose “probably” and “probably not,” both mean the same thing, too. 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

I’m actually fascinated by you arguing that “incredibly unlikely” and “somewhat probable” can be interchanged here without changing the meaning 

 

please tutor away 

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Gugny said:

Indulge me. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is eager to learn this secret “other definition” of probable. 
 

I suppose “probably” and “probably not,” both mean the same thing, too. 

Good grief, I already posted multiple entries from dictionaries all over the web.  Worst kept secret of all time.

 

[damj]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I prefer wings on the bone.  Go Bills!

What brand of Ranch?

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Sherlock Holmes said:

What brand of Ranch?

Blasphemy!!!

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 minute ago, ImpactCorey said:

Blasphemy!!!

Almost had you!

[damj]

2 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

What brand of Ranch?

[buffaloboyinATL]

14 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Possible? Yes. Probable?  No.  One of your first sentences is the reason why.  Miami has not beaten a team with a winning record all season long. The odds of them beating 2 in a row is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.  

[TheWeatherMan]

14 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

It may be the only definition you are aware of, but that does not make it so.  That said, nobody here is interested in me tutoring you and I'd rather stay on topic of the scenario I defined.

 

Ignorance truly is bliss.  Your scenario has the same likelihood of happening as you admitting you don’t understand the meaning of probable.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

Here’s an idea:  If someone is concerned all 17 games are going to go against the Bills, put down a small sum of money on a parlay (or weekly parlay) on those exact outcomes.  And if the Bills win out and don’t make the playoffs, you will at least be rich in the end.

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, buffaloboyinATL said:

Possible? Yes. Probable?  No.  One of your first sentences is the reason why.  Miami has not beaten a team with a winning record all season long. The odds of them beating 2 in a row is, in my opinion, highly unlikely.  

For sure.  It is funny how one week I'm the biggest Cowboys hater and the next I'm their biggest fan. 😆

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Here’s an idea:  If someone is concerned all 17 games are going to go against the Bills, put down a small sum of money on a parlay (or weekly parlay) on those exact outcomes.  And if the Bills win out and don’t make the playoffs, you will at least be rich in the end.

Not concerned.  It was a fun thought exercise to escape holiday stress for one night, though.  What do you think the payout would be for say.... $10?  😆

4 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Ignorance truly is bliss.  Your scenario has the same likelihood of happening as you admitting you don’t understand the meaning of probable.  

I'll take that parlay.

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

Not concerned.  It was a fun thought exercise to escape holiday stress for one night, though.  What do you think the payout would be for say.... $10?  😆

If I have it right, this weekend alone would be an 8-teamer, and you’d bring back $941 on MGM.  Roll that into the following weeks and several other games/outcomes, going to add up quickly for you.

[ImpactCorey]

19 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’m actually fascinated by you arguing that “incredibly unlikely” and “somewhat probable” can be interchanged here without changing the meaning 

 

please tutor away 

And I'm impressed by how nasty people can get by the use of a single word.  You'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.

[Eastport bills]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If Miami wins their next two games, our only hope will be as a wild card.  And while Miami winning their next two is not probable, it’s even less probable that 10+ other games go a certain way.  My point is, even if we win all of our games, Wild Card just as easily could be our path in still, versus winning the division.

Sadly I can’t come up with a scenario where we get in without beating Miami.

[billsfan89]

Probable? No, possible yes. Just win against the Chargers and see what happens for now.