The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Ok, looks like you are right sir. I am wrong. Go Bills! They can fact win out and have each game of the 17 games needed to go wrong go wrong and miss the playoffs. Very very cool stuff indeed. 

The perfect storm has to happen!  Here's to hoping it doesn't.  Go Bills!

[strive_for_five_guy]

25 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I hear ya.  However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field.  He only threw for 82 yards!  There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

Browns may also have nothing to play for by Week 18, hence important that the Bengals lose either against Pit or KC.

[C.Biscuit97]

This would be the most Buffalo scenario ever. 
 

or losing on a game winning drive to Easton Stick.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Sorry but that’s still not correct. Even winning 11 games, a Browns loss against the Texans hurts us. There is no situation where it doesn’t. We want the Browns to win that game.

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins 

 

Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in 

 

it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying.   I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol 

any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening.  Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t 

 

it could be meaningless by the time that game starts though there’s a handful of other games that could prevent that scenario too…like the Steelers beating the bengals 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Blitz]

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

And if Miami is in must win mode in week 18 those odds are a little worse.  
 

Like I said earlier in the week.  I’m getting to a place I’d prefer Miami gains nothing from winning week 18.  
 

Which means Baltimore loses to 49ers. 
 

Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore.  KC loses 1 game.  
 

They clinch the 1 seed.  
 

Is that likely?  No.  Plus we need KC to win the only game they could possibly lose - vs Cincy.  

[Kellyhero68]

Final standings, score projections for the 2023 NFL season - ESPN

 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

Per NYT, if we win the next two and drop the MIA game we still have a 61% chance of securing a wild card.

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

And if Miami is in must win mode in week 18 those odds are a little worse.  
 

Like I said earlier in the week.  I’m getting to a place I’d prefer Miami gains nothing from winning week 18.  
 

Which means Baltimore loses to 49ers. 
 

Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore.  KC loses 1 game.  
 

They clinch the 1 seed.  
 

Is that likely?  No.  Plus we need KC to win the only game they could possibly lose - vs Cincy.  

 

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in.  I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins 

 

Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in 

 

it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying.   I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol 

any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening.  Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t 

Assuming we win out and looking back through scenarios, it does look like Browns LOSING to the Texans is an outcome that would help us control our own destiny.  The scenario where 11-6 does not get us in requires the Browns to win against the Texans.

[ImpactCorey]

3 minutes ago, Kellyhero68 said:

Final standings, score projections for the 2023 NFL season - ESPN

 

The only difference shown here vs my scenario is Miami losing one of their next two.  Definitely need that to happen.

[BringBackFlutie]

Less than 1% is probable? I come here for this kind of stuff.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

Less than 1% is probable? I come here for this kind of stuff.

[Dick_Cheney]

This would be a new level of sadness.

[jletha]

Simply put: we technically dont control our own destiny right now. But for week 16 alone, If ANY of Mia, Jax, Cin, Cle or Ind lose then we are guaranteed a spot if we win out.

[Eastport bills]

These scenarios will be disposable after this weekend. More likely is our winning the division or out of the playoffs with the results of the Dolphins game. 

[Gugny]

12 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

 

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in.  I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

There’s likely jags fans on their board saying  no way we go 2-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs our team is so bad right now’ for every person saying that here to be fair 😂. If the bucs beat the jags our odds of getting in with 10 wins shoot up

[Buffalo03]

12 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

While possible, that's a lot to happen to not make it if we win out. The odds of all that happening is slim

[GoBills808]

how probable is this tho

 

i thought it was less than 1%

[BringBackFlutie]

14 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

 

Hahahahaha 💀💀💀