The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[CSBill]

It is a good post. Thanks, Impact. And, really, "Merry Christmas!"

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

I don't know why you are getting such grief.  Maybe if you change "somewhat probable" to "least improbable".  Of course you would still get hit by the don't speak evil into existence karma folks.

I think people might assume I want this to happen while I really really don’t.  I expected a little bit of push back but all I wanted was to talk about how crazy it is where a team can go 11-6 and still miss without something insane like every game ending in a tie for the rest of the season.  I wanted to lay out a believable case and root for it to NOT happen.

9 minutes ago, CSBill said:

It is a good post. Thanks, Impact. And, really, "Merry Christmas!"

Merry Christmas! It is coming so fast!  I needed a distraction for one night 😅

[Steptide]

I've already accepted the fact that they could miss the playoffs. Been saying since they lost to the broncos, they dug themselves a deep hole. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

If the Steelers can just beat the Bengals this Saturday, we can go into our game controlling our own destiny.

[Arkady Renko]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

Yes, but that was with one fewer wild card team.

I think two fewer in 1985. 

[Scott7975]

Any one of the Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, or Texans loss this week and the Bills control their own destiny by winning out. It's that simple this week.

 

Someone earlier said Browns but I don't think that is true.  Browns need to drop 2 games IIRC.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Scott7975

[transient]

7 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Yep, if we play them again now, even with Burrow, it's a different outcome. The same goes for Denver, Jacksonville, and New England. We have caught fire at the right time.

🤔 You could argue that technically the right time would have been a game sooner to avoid scenarios like the one fueling this thread… 🤷‍♂️😂

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

[Saxum]

8 hours ago, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

 

With only 6 teams however;  NFL added an extra playoff team to get all NFL fans to pay for Peacock*.  

*.  Gdell has future plans for one paid service per playoff team.

[Dablitzkrieg]

I choose to ignore this scenario for mental health purposes.  That being said, Dallas is going to beat Miami.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Dablitzkrieg

[Seventeen]

2 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I choose to ignore this scenario for mental health purposes.  That being said, Dallas is going to beat Miami.

 

And the Bucs will beat the Jags without Lawrence

[Orlando Buffalo]

8 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

If it happens I am going to blame you, because obviously it is not the Bills fault for losing to the Pats*, Jets and Broncos.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

but he can’t with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe.

[Saxum]

7 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

but he can’t with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe.

 

When he went 11-5 he had Ernie Adams; without him Beli-CHEAT is just mortal.

[ImpactCorey]

13 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

If it happens I am going to blame you, because obviously it is not the Bills fault for losing to the Pats*, Jets and Broncos.

I accept all blame 😅

[NoSaint]

8 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

Valuable?  No.  But apparently it was interesting enough for you to participate!  Thanks for stopping by.

Somewhat probable was a terrible way to frame the subject here. You’ll be getting a lot of people that clicked in to see something that would be somewhat probable and not sub-1% odds. Those people may be snarky about that once they get here.

Edited December 22, 2023 by NoSaint

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

Agreed..a lot of people say Browns over Texans..but not true.

 

At what point do we begin to panic if all these teams win?
 

[QB Bills]

If you believe in a Bills curse, this would be quite the parlay payout.

[Jukester]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

Let's hope that doesn't happen. Missing the playoffs with 11 wins, especially after they added a 3rd wild card team, would really suck.

Football gods and the Buffalo Bills....you never know

[Scott7975]

The Dolphins have a scenario where they don't make it as well.  That would make my year.  I hate Dolphin fans with a passion.

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Scott7975