The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game.

I hope all 12 other games go our way too and the complete opposite of that scenario happens haha

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, chongli said:

 

 

 

Based on the Dolphins record against teams with winning records this year and their penchant of December fades for decades now, the realistic odds for the Bills to win the division are probably around 90%. 

[Nephilim17]

Glad, thanks to this thread, I've confirmed what certain words mean now.

 

To my kids who when they ask me if they can have a cat.

 

"That's somewhat probable."

 

To women on dating sites who don't look like their profile photos that were actually taken several years ago — before the fat and wrinkles really set in — and who want a second date with me:

 

"That's somewhat probable."

 

To my future woman when she asks me if I want to do yoga Saturday mornings with her:

"That's somewhat probable."

 

Thanks, OP!

[HappyDays]

I just want to point out that unless the Jaguars make a 30 point comeback, the first 3 results in the "somewhat probable scenario" all went in favor of the Bills.

[4merper4mer]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:27 PM, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Any updates on this “somewhat probable” situation?

[Matt_In_NH]

I guess probable means something different than I thought.  

[Ray Stonada]

Somewhat probably, none of this didn't not happen

[Aussie Joe]

OP short listed for 2023 post of the year …

[Punch]

41 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Somewhat probably, none of this didn't not happen

[Ray Stonada]

33 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

OP short listed for 2023 post of the year …

 

LOL.

 

Tbh, I appreciated the work @ImpactCorey put in to figure out how we could win out and miss the playoffs. But to die on the hill of calling a less than 1% chance "somewhat probable"... sometimes doubling down doesn't pay off...

[Doc]

[Big Turk]

This was never somewhat probable. Every year teams lose games they "should" win down the stretch. This year it's happening almost too often. Virtually every team is losing these games. Except the Bills.

 

Hopefully people at some point will remember how the NFL actually works and stop playing games in their head on "paper" and saying teams have "no chance" to win. Doubt it tho.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Big Turk

[Coldfronts]

Big difference between probable and possible.  I always keep it straight In my head by saying everything is possible but few things are probable

[JerseyBills]

LFG

In 1 day it turned to this to this-

 

The somewhat probable scenario the Bills get the 2 seed!!

Bal beats Mia

Bills beat NE and Mia

 

And to think 3 weeks ago the sky was falling and we were 11th in the AFC

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by JerseyBills

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

LFG

In 1 day it turned to this to this-

 

The somewhat probable scenario the Bills get the 2 seed!!

Bal beats Mia

Bills beat NE and Mia

 

And to think 3 weeks ago the sky was falling and we were 11th in the AFC

 

Should know by about 4:30 next Sunday whether 2 of these 3 things have happened…

[Gregg]

Are they any scenarios for week 17 where the Bills can clinch a playoff spot or do we have to wait until week 18 to clinch. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Are they any scenarios for week 17 where the Bills can clinch a playoff spot or do we have to wait until week 18 to clinch. 

 

Bills win, Seahawks over Steelers and a Bengals loss to Chiefs, I believe.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Bills win, Steelers over Bengals and I believe Seahawks win and they clinch.

 

Steelers are playing the Seahawks, and the Chiefs are playing the Bengals. I would assume the Seahawks and Chiefs winning along with a Bills win clinches a WC.

[GunnerBill]

The thing I said for weeks is the Bills were still in it because of the unreliability of who was ahead of them - a young Texans team (and then Stroud gets hurt), a Bengals team with a backup QB and Chase hurt, the Colts who to be honest I am shocked have won as many as they have, the Jags who are mental midgets under pressure, Denver whose QB is still an issue, Cleveland who have a legit D but are on their 4th QB.

 

It was always likely 1 or maybe 2 of them stuck on down the stretch like the Browns have. But for 3 of those 6 to be consistent was always highly unlikely IMO.

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Bills win, Seahawks over Steelers and a Bengals loss to Chiefs, I believe.

 

 

 

Also: Bills win and 1 of the Bengals or Steelers lose, combined with 2 losses from the Jags, Colts or Texans. 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Motorin'